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Under 2.5 Goals Predictions

Fixtures ranked by highest under 2.5 probability β€” Saturday 20 January 2024

Under 2.5 goals lands when a match produces 2 goals or fewer. Our prediction model sums the probability of every scoreline with 2 goals or fewer β€” 0–0, 1–0, 1–1, 2–0 and their mirror images. Only fixtures with 55%+ probability are shown.

20 matches cleared our threshold on Saturday 20 January 2024. The strongest reading belongs to Ternana vs Cittadella at 75% in the Serie B. The shortlist runs from 75% down to 59%, so the depth of the card matters as much as the headline pick.

Serie B supplies three of the top 10, making it the dominant competition on this list.

Of the 20 fixtures on this list that have since finished, eleven landed the under 2.5 goals market — 55%. This is a single day's sample and swings heavily; the rolling record across all fixtures is on the model accuracy page.

Model output for information only β€” not betting advice. See the model's accuracy record.

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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

#1 Serie B Β· Italy 75%
Ternana
3 : 1 FT
Cittadella
Win 32%
Draw 36%
Win 32%
Under 2.5 75% BTTS No 65%
#2 Primeira Liga Β· Portugal 73%
FC Porto
5 : 0 FT
Moreirense
βœ“ Win 39%
Draw 33%
Win 28%
Under 2.5 73% ✓ BTTS No 65%
#3 League One Β· England 72%
Exeter City
0 : 0 FT
Cambridge United
Win 40%
Draw 34%
Win 26%
✓ Under 2.5 72% ✓ BTTS No 64%
#4 La Liga Β· Spain 72%
Rayo Vallecano
0 : 2 FT
Las Palmas
Win 34%
Draw 37%
Win 29%
✓ Under 2.5 72% ✓ BTTS No 62%
#5 League One Β· England 69%
Leyton Orient
1 : 0 FT
Bolton
Win 17%
Draw 30%
Win 53%
✓ Under 2.5 69% ✓ BTTS No 65% Bolton Clean Sheet 54%
#6 La Liga Β· Spain 69%
Valencia
1 : 0 FT
Athletic Club
βœ“ Win 37%
Draw 36%
Win 27%
✓ Under 2.5 69% ✓ BTTS No 59%
#7 Championship Β· England 69%
Stoke City
1 : 2 FT
Birmingham
Win 39%
Draw 31%
Win 30%
Under 2.5 69% BTTS No 61%
#8 Serie B Β· Italy 68%
Spezia
0 : 1 FT
Cremonese
Win 27%
Draw 33%
βœ“ Win 40%
✓ Under 2.5 68% ✓ BTTS No 60%
#9 Serie B Β· Italy 67%
Reggiana
2 : 2 FT
Como
Win 27%
Draw 33%
Win 40%
Under 2.5 67% BTTS No 59%
#10 League Two Β· England 65%
Barrow
1 : 3 FT
Crewe
Win 44%
Draw 30%
Win 27%
Under 2.5 65% BTTS No 59%
#11 Championship Β· England 64%
Norwich
2 : 0 FT
West Brom
βœ“ Win 37%
Draw 29%
Win 33%
✓ Under 2.5 64% ✓ BTTS No 57%
#12 Championship Β· England 62%
Swansea
1 : 3 FT
Southampton
Win 40%
Draw 29%
Win 31%
Under 2.5 62% BTTS No 56%
#13 Jupiler Pro League Β· Belgium 62%
Standard Liege
0 : 1 FT
Kortrijk
Win 60%
Draw 29%
Win 10%
✓ Under 2.5 62% ✓ BTTS No 62% Standard Liege Clean Sheet 56%
#14 Serie B Β· Italy 61%
Cosenza
4 : 2 FT
Venezia
Win 29%
Draw 31%
Win 40%
Under 2.5 61% BTTS No 54%
#15 La Liga Β· Spain 61%
Celta Vigo
0 : 1 FT
Real Sociedad
Win 25%
Draw 32%
βœ“ Win 43%
✓ Under 2.5 61% ✓ BTTS No 54%
#16 Championship Β· England 61%
QPR
2 : 0 FT
Millwall
Win 26%
Draw 28%
Win 46%
✓ Under 2.5 61% ✓ BTTS No 55%
#17 Primeira Liga Β· Portugal 61%
Casa Pia
1 : 3 FT
Farense
Win 34%
Draw 29%
βœ“ Win 37%
Under 2.5 61% BTTS No 54%
#18 Super League 1 Β· Greece 60%
OFI
1 : 0 FT
Panetolikos
βœ“ Win 40%
Draw 31%
Win 29%
✓ Under 2.5 60%
#19 Serie B Β· Italy 59%
Feralpisalo
3 : 0 FT
Catanzaro
Win 31%
Draw 31%
Win 38%
Under 2.5 59%
#20 League Two Β· England 59%
Gillingham
1 : 1 FT
Forest Green
Win 46%
Draw 28%
Win 27%
✓ Under 2.5 59% BTTS No 54%

Showing top 20 fixtures by under 2.5 probability (a 55% or higher under 2.5 probability). Predictions are generated by our prediction model and updated daily. For informational purposes only.

Under 2.5 Goals β€” common questions

What does the Under 2.5 Goals market mean?

Under 2.5 Goals settles on whether a match finishes with 2 or fewer total goals. It is one of the most commonly offered football markets and is priced by every major bookmaker.

How does Fixture360 calculate under 2.5 goals probability?

Our Poisson model estimates each team's expected goals from their attack and defence strengths, then builds a probability for every possible scoreline. The under 2.5 probability shown here is the probability of 2 or fewer total goals, summed across every scoreline in the model's matrix. No bookmaker odds are used as an input — the model is independent of the market.

How many fixtures qualified for Under 2.5 Goals on Saturday 20 January 2024?

20 fixtures met the criteria, led by Ternana vs Cittadella at 75% under 2.5 probability.

Which fixtures appear on this page?

Fixtures with a 55% or higher under 2.5 probability, ranked strongest first. The page defaults to today; the date strip moves to other days, and only fixtures with enough underlying result history to generate a model snapshot are eligible.

How accurate are these under 2.5 goals predictions?

Every settled prediction is scored and published on our model accuracy page, broken down by market and league. Treat any single day as a small sample — the model is built to be judged over hundreds of fixtures, not one card.

Are these predictions betting tips?

No. These are model outputs published for information, with no stake or return implied. Gambling carries real financial risk — please read our responsible gambling guidance.