Under 2.5 Goals Predictions
Fixtures ranked by highest under 2.5 probability — Sunday 20 August 2023
Under 2.5 goals lands when a match produces 2 goals or fewer. Our prediction model sums the probability of every scoreline with 2 goals or fewer — 0–0, 1–0, 1–1, 2–0 and their mirror images. Only fixtures with 55%+ probability are shown.
The model shortlists 20 fixtures on Sunday 20 August 2023. Cruzeiro vs Corinthians led the list at 84% in the Serie A. The shortlist runs from 84% down to 57%, which is a meaningful spread across a single day.
The shortlist spans eight different competitions, so there is no single league driving the day.
Of the 20 fixtures on this list that have since finished, nine landed the under 2.5 goals market — 45%. This is a single day's sample and swings heavily; the rolling record across all fixtures is on the model accuracy page.
Model output for information only — not betting advice. See the model's accuracy record.
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Serie A · Brazil
84%
Serie A · Brazil
74%
Veikkausliiga · Finland
68%
Championship · England
64%
Serie B · Italy
64%
Ekstraklasa · Poland
62%
Premier League · Russia
61%
Superettan · Sweden
61%
Super League 1 · Greece
61%
Serie B · Italy
60%
La Liga · Spain
60%
Serie A · Italy
59%
La Liga · Spain
58%
Serie B · Italy
58%
Primeira Liga · Portugal
58%
Serie A · Brazil
57%
Jupiler Pro League · Belgium
57%
Allsvenskan · Sweden
57%
Allsvenskan · Sweden
57%
Premier League · Ukraine
57%
Showing top 20 fixtures by under 2.5 probability (a 55% or higher under 2.5 probability). Predictions are generated by our prediction model and updated daily. For informational purposes only.
Related markets
Predictions by country
UK Football Predictions
Spanish Football Predictions
Italian Football Predictions
German Football Predictions
French Football Predictions
Dutch Football Predictions
Portuguese Football PredictionsUnder 2.5 Goals — common questions
What does the Under 2.5 Goals market mean?
Under 2.5 Goals settles on whether a match finishes with 2 or fewer total goals. It is one of the most commonly offered football markets and is priced by every major bookmaker.
How does Fixture360 calculate under 2.5 goals probability?
Our Poisson model estimates each team's expected goals from their attack and defence strengths, then builds a probability for every possible scoreline. The under 2.5 probability shown here is the probability of 2 or fewer total goals, summed across every scoreline in the model's matrix. No bookmaker odds are used as an input — the model is independent of the market.
How many fixtures qualified for Under 2.5 Goals on Sunday 20 August 2023?
20 fixtures met the criteria, led by Cruzeiro vs Corinthians at 84% under 2.5 probability.
Which fixtures appear on this page?
Fixtures with a 55% or higher under 2.5 probability, ranked strongest first. The page defaults to today; the date strip moves to other days, and only fixtures with enough underlying result history to generate a model snapshot are eligible.
How accurate are these under 2.5 goals predictions?
Every settled prediction is scored and published on our model accuracy page, broken down by market and league. Treat any single day as a small sample — the model is built to be judged over hundreds of fixtures, not one card.
Are these predictions betting tips?
No. These are model outputs published for information, with no stake or return implied. Gambling carries real financial risk — please read our responsible gambling guidance.