Over 3.5 Goals Predictions
Fixtures ranked by highest predicted over 3.5 probability — Monday 23 October 2023
Over 3.5 goals requires at least 4 goals — a higher-risk, higher-reward market. Our prediction model sums all scorelines with 4 or more total goals to calculate this probability. Fixtures here are the most attacking matchups of the day, ideal for both teams to score accumulators and big-game scoring markets.
15 matches cleared our threshold on Monday 23 October 2023. The strongest reading belongs to Fiorentina vs Empoli at 49% in the Serie A. The shortlist runs from 49% down to 27%, so the depth of the card matters as much as the headline pick.
The shortlist spans eight different competitions, so there is no single league driving the day.
Of the 15 fixtures on this list that have since finished, three landed the over 3.5 goals market — 20%. This is a single day's sample and swings heavily; the rolling record across all fixtures is on the model accuracy page.
Model output for information only — not betting advice. See the model's accuracy record.
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Serie A · Italy
Super League · China
Superettan · Sweden
Eerste Divisie · Netherlands
Eerste Divisie · Netherlands
Ekstraklasa · Poland
Süper Lig · Turkey
Süper Lig · Turkey
Premier Division · Ireland
Premier League · England
Eerste Divisie · Netherlands
Eerste Divisie · Netherlands
Allsvenskan · Sweden
Eerste Divisie · Netherlands
Serie B · Italy
Showing top 15 fixtures by over 3.5 goals probability (≥ 25%). Predictions are generated by our prediction model and updated daily. For informational purposes only.
Related markets
Over 3.5 Goals — common questions
What does the Over 3.5 Goals market mean?
Over 3.5 Goals settles on whether a match finishes with at least 4 total goals. It is one of the most commonly offered football markets and is priced by every major bookmaker.
How does Fixture360 calculate over 3.5 goals probability?
Our Poisson model estimates each team's expected goals from their attack and defence strengths, then builds a probability for every possible scoreline. The over 3.5 probability shown here is the probability of at least 4 total goals, summed across every scoreline in the model's matrix. No bookmaker odds are used as an input — the model is independent of the market.
How many fixtures qualified for Over 3.5 Goals on Monday 23 October 2023?
15 fixtures met the criteria, led by Fiorentina vs Empoli at 49% over 3.5 probability.
Which fixtures appear on this page?
Fixtures with the highest over 3.5 probabilities of the day, ranked strongest first. The page defaults to today; the date strip moves to other days, and only fixtures with enough underlying result history to generate a model snapshot are eligible.
How accurate are these over 3.5 goals predictions?
Every settled prediction is scored and published on our model accuracy page, broken down by market and league. Treat any single day as a small sample — the model is built to be judged over hundreds of fixtures, not one card.
Are these predictions betting tips?
No. These are model outputs published for information, with no stake or return implied. Gambling carries real financial risk — please read our responsible gambling guidance.