One-Sided Predictions
Biggest mismatches ranked by dominant win probability — Sunday 18 September 2022
These are the day's biggest mismatches — fixtures where the prediction model gives one team a 60%+ win probability. Useful for finding confident accumulator legs, handicap markets, and Asian lines. The favourite can be the home or away side — the model ranks purely on statistical dominance, not venue.
The model shortlists 17 fixtures on Sunday 18 September 2022. Nizhny Novgorod vs FC Orenburg led the list at 81% in the Premier League. The shortlist runs from 81% down to 61%, which is a meaningful spread across a single day.
Eliteserien supplies three of the top 10, which is worth noting if you are spreading selections across leagues.
Of the 17 fixtures on this list that have since finished, eight landed the one-sided market — 47%. This is a single day's sample and swings heavily; the rolling record across all fixtures is on the model accuracy page.
Model output for information only — not betting advice. See the model's accuracy record.
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Premier League · Russia
Primeira Liga · Portugal
Premier League · Russia
Bundesliga · Germany
Süper Lig · Turkey
Allsvenskan · Sweden
Eliteserien · Norway
Eliteserien · Norway
Eliteserien · Norway
Allsvenskan · Sweden
Serie A · Brazil
La Liga · Spain
Premier League · Russia
Eliteserien · Norway
Eredivisie · Netherlands
Eliteserien · Norway
Ekstraklasa · Poland
Showing top 17 fixtures where one team has 60%+ win probability. Predictions are generated by our prediction model and updated daily. For informational purposes only.
Related markets
One-Sided — common questions
What does the One-Sided market mean?
One-Sided settles on whether a match has a clear statistical favourite. It is one of the most commonly offered football markets and is priced by every major bookmaker.
How does Fixture360 calculate one-sided probability?
Our Poisson model estimates each team's expected goals from their attack and defence strengths, then builds a probability for every possible scoreline. The favourite's win probability shown here is the stronger of the two win probabilities, regardless of which side is at home. No bookmaker odds are used as an input — the model is independent of the market.
How many fixtures qualified for One-Sided on Sunday 18 September 2022?
17 fixtures met the criteria, led by Nizhny Novgorod vs FC Orenburg at 81% favourite's win probability.
Which fixtures appear on this page?
Fixtures with a 60% or higher win probability for one side, ranked strongest first. The page defaults to today; the date strip moves to other days, and only fixtures with enough underlying result history to generate a model snapshot are eligible.
How accurate are these one-sided predictions?
Every settled prediction is scored and published on our model accuracy page, broken down by market and league. Treat any single day as a small sample — the model is built to be judged over hundreds of fixtures, not one card.
Are these predictions betting tips?
No. These are model outputs published for information, with no stake or return implied. Gambling carries real financial risk — please read our responsible gambling guidance.