Low Scoring settles on whether a match is expected to stay tight, typically under 2.5 goals. It is one of the most commonly offered football markets and is priced by every major bookmaker.

Our Poisson model estimates each team's expected goals from their attack and defence strengths, then builds a probability for every possible scoreline. The combined expected goals shown here is the sum of both teams' expected goals, ranked ascending so the tightest games surface first. No bookmaker odds are used as an input — the model is independent of the market.

20 fixtures met the criteria, led by Stoke City vs Derby at 2.35 combined expected goals.

Fixtures with the lowest combined expected goals of the day, ranked strongest first. The page defaults to today; the date strip moves to other days, and only fixtures with enough underlying result history to generate a model snapshot are eligible.

Every settled prediction is scored and published on our model accuracy page, broken down by market and league. Treat any single day as a small sample — the model is built to be judged over hundreds of fixtures, not one card.

No. These are model outputs published for information, with no stake or return implied. Gambling carries real financial risk — please read our responsible gambling guidance.