Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 3-0 Al-Wasl FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Shabab Al Ahli Dubai at 47% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al-Wasl FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Rashid Stadium plays host to Shabab Al Ahli Dubai versus Al-Wasl FC in Pro League (matchday 10). Kick-off: Tuesday 17 December 2024 at 15:30 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have collected 2.60 PPG across their last 10 games: 8W 2D 0L. Last five: W W W D D. They are averaging 3.60 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai at home: 9W 1D 0L from their last 10 home games — 2.80 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 3.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Al-Wasl FC's record over their last 10 games: 4W 4D 2L (1.60 PPG). Last five: L D D D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Al-Wasl FC have gone 6W 3D 1L in their last 10 away fixtures (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 2.10 exceeds their overall 1.60 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Form favours the hosts. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's 2.60 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Al-Wasl FC's 1.60 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (from Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's last 10 home games and Al-Wasl FC's last 10 away games) — both teams have scored in 80% of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's games and 70% of Al-Wasl FC's. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 5 H2H matches in our data, Al-Wasl FC edge it 3 wins to 1, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 5 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 26 May 2024, ended Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 0–3 Al-Wasl FC — a Al-Wasl FC win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai — key trading statistics (last 34 games, 17 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 86% of those occasions; they lead at the break 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 94% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Al-Wasl FC — key trading statistics (last 34 games, 17 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 62%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 74% and Al-Wasl FC 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 85% | Al-Wasl FC 76%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 2.04 xG and Al-Wasl FC 1.57 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.187 / defence 0.918 | Al-Wasl FC attack 1.106 / defence 0.939. League average goals — home 1.834 / away 1.545. Data: built from Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's last 34 games and Al-Wasl FC's last 35.
Result probabilities: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 47% | Draw 25% | Al-Wasl FC 28%. Fair-value odds: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 2.13 | Draw 3.94 | Al-Wasl FC 3.60. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS Yes probability 71% | Total xG 3.61. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.61 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 71% — both xG figures (2.04 / 1.57) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Shabab Al Ahli Dubai if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.61 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 70% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's last 10 home games and Al-Wasl FC's last 10 away games) averaging 4.2 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 71% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 80% (last 10 home games) | Al-Wasl FC 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al-Wasl FC | Competition: Pro League, matchday 10 | Venue: Rashid Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 17 December 2024 at 15:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 47% | Draw 25% | Al-Wasl FC 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% (Under 30%) | BTTS Yes 71% (No 29%) | xG Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 2.04 / Al-Wasl FC 1.57 • Poisson strength factors: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.187 / def 0.918 | Al-Wasl FC attack 1.106 / def 0.939 | league avg home 1.834 / away 1.545 • Poisson stance: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.04
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai xG
Expected Goals
1.57
Al-Wasl FC xG
71%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al-Wasl FC FAQs
What time does Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al-Wasl FC kick off?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al-Wasl FC kicked off at 15:30 UK time on Tuesday 17 December 2024 at Rashid Stadium.
What was the final score in Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al-Wasl FC?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 3 - 0 Al-Wasl FC.
Where is Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al-Wasl FC being played?
The match is being played at Rashid Stadium.
What competition is Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al-Wasl FC part of?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al-Wasl FC is a Pro League fixture (matchday 10) (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al-Wasl FC?
Our statistical model gives Shabab Al Ahli Dubai a 47% chance of winning, Al-Wasl FC a 28% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Shabab Al Ahli Dubai the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al-Wasl FC?
Our model estimates a 71% probability that both Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Al-Wasl FC will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al-Wasl FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's attack rating (1.19) and Al-Wasl FC's defence rating (0.94), the model arrives at 2.04 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al-Wasl FC's attack (1.11x) against Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 1.57.
These ratings are built from Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's last 34 games and Al-Wasl FC's last 35 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 2-2 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai Win
47%
2.13
25%
3.94
28%
3.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.6%
Draw
2 – 2
6.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.04
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai xG
Total xG
3.61
1.57
Al-Wasl FC xG
2.13
47%
Home win
3.94
25%
Draw
3.60
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
71%
BTTS Yes
1.41
29%
BTTS No
3.44
Clean Sheet
21%
4.80
13%
7.73
Win to Nil
10%
10.23
4%
27.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 4.2 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 5.5 | 8.6 | 6.8 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.8 | 6.9 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 6.0 | 4.7 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 3.1 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al-Wasl FC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al-Wasl FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.8%.
How many goals are Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Al-Wasl FC expected to score?
The model projects 2.04 expected goals for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and 1.57 for Al-Wasl FC, a combined total of 3.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al-Wasl FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's recent record stands at 24W 6D 4L from 34 games, a 2.29 PPG return, with W-W-W-D-D in the last five.
Al-Wasl FC, meanwhile, have gone 23W 8D 3L across 34 games — 2.26 PPG, with L-D-D-D-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 2.29 PPG for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai against 2.26 for Al-Wasl FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have managed 13W 2D 2L from their last 17 home games — 2.41 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Wasl FC's away record stands at 11W 5D 1L across their last 17 away games, a 2.24 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are averaging 2.76 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Al-Wasl FC are on 2.56 scored and 1.26 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have seen both teams score in 74% of their recent games; Al-Wasl FC in 68%.
Last 34 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
Blended
Al-Wasl FC
Blended
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (Home) vs Al-Wasl FC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
Blended
Al-Wasl FC
Blended
❓ Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al-Wasl FC Form FAQs
What form are Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Al-Wasl FC in coming into this match?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have gone 24W 6D 4L in their last 34 games (2.29 PPG), while Al-Wasl FC have gone 23W 8D 3L in their last 34 (2.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shabab Al Ahli Dubai at home or Al-Wasl FC away?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's home record (2.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shabab Al Ahli Dubai at home: 2.41 PPG; Al-Wasl FC away: 2.24 PPG.
Have Shabab Al Ahli Dubai or Al-Wasl FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Al-Wasl FC in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to March 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent was as recently as 28 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Wasl FC won Al-Wasl FC 3-0 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai on 26 May 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have gone 2W 1D 2L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Al-Wasl FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
2
Draws
4
Al-Wasl FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al-Wasl FC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Al-Wasl FC?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have won 4, Al-Wasl FC have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Al-Wasl FC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 28 August 2026: Al-Wasl FC 0-1 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 59% of the time.
Al-Wasl FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 71% for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai, 71% for Al-Wasl FC — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 94% for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and 76% for Al-Wasl FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 71% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shabab Al Ahli Dubai home games / Al-Wasl FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al-Wasl FC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Al-Wasl FC matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's games and 71% of Al-Wasl FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Al-Wasl FC matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 94% of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's matches and 76% of Al-Wasl FC's.
Do Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Al-Wasl FC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 82% of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's recent matches and 82% of Al-Wasl FC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Shabab Al Ahli Dubai run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Al-Wasl FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai beat Al-Wasl FC 3-0 at Rashid Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 2.04 xG and Al-Wasl FC 1.57 xG, a combined 3.61. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al-Wasl FC landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.19 / defence 0.92 against Al-Wasl FC attack 1.11 / defence 0.94, drawn from 34/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 47% | Draw 25% | Al-Wasl FC 28%, with Shabab Al Ahli Dubai to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 49% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 71% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 81% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 85%, Al-Wasl FC 76%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 71%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 74% of their matches — today it did not.
Al-Wasl FC's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 2.29 PPG, Al-Wasl FC 2.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Shabab Al Ahli Dubai win broke the near-deadlock. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Wasl FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.76 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.35 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.