Baniyas SC 1-1 Al Bataeh – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Baniyas SC at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Baniyas SC vs Al Bataeh fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 10 as Baniyas SC welcome Al Bataeh to Baniyas Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 14 December 2024 at 12:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Baniyas SC have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Baniyas SC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Baniyas SC at Baniyas Stadium this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Al Bataeh — All Games: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al Bataeh, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Al Bataeh have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Baniyas SC at 0.80 PPG versus Al Bataeh's 0.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Baniyas SC, 2 for Al Bataeh and 2 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 14 May 2024, ended 3–3 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Baniyas SC in-play and half-time data (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Al Bataeh in-play and half-time data (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Baniyas SC 63% and Al Bataeh 74% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Baniyas SC 63% | Al Bataeh 74%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Baniyas SC 2.02 xG and Al Bataeh 1.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Baniyas SC attack 0.986 / defence 1.282 | Al Bataeh attack 0.863 / defence 1.092. League average goals — home 1.880 / away 1.563. Data: 35 Baniyas SC games / 35 Al Bataeh games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Baniyas SC 44% | Draw 24% | Al Bataeh 32%. Fair-value odds: Baniyas SC 2.27 | Draw 4.17 | Al Bataeh 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 72% | BTTS probability 73% | Total xG 3.75. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 72% — a total xG of 3.75 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 73% reflects that both xG figures (2.02 / 1.73) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Baniyas SC as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Baniyas SC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.75 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 72% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 73% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Baniyas SC 70% | Al Bataeh 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Baniyas SC vs Al Bataeh | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Baniyas Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Dec 2024, 12:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Baniyas SC 44% | Draw 24% | Al Bataeh 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 72% | BTTS 73% | xG Baniyas SC 2.02 / Al Bataeh 1.73 • Poisson strength factors: Baniyas SC attack 0.986 / def 1.282 | Al Bataeh attack 0.863 / def 1.092 | league avg home 1.880 / away 1.563 • Poisson stance: Baniyas SC (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
2.02
Baniyas SC xG
Expected Goals
1.73
Al Bataeh xG
73%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
72%
Over 2.5
52%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Baniyas SC vs Al Bataeh kick off?
Baniyas SC vs Al Bataeh kicked off at 12:45 on Saturday 14 December 2024 at Baniyas Stadium.
What was the final score in Baniyas SC vs Al Bataeh?
Baniyas SC 1 - 1 Al Bataeh.
Where is Baniyas SC vs Al Bataeh being played?
The match is being played at Baniyas Stadium.
What competition is Baniyas SC vs Al Bataeh part of?
Baniyas SC vs Al Bataeh is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Baniyas SC vs Al Bataeh?
Our statistical model gives Baniyas SC a 44% chance of winning, Al Bataeh a 32% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Baniyas SC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Baniyas SC vs Al Bataeh?
Our model estimates a 73% probability that both Baniyas SC and Al Bataeh will score (BTTS).
Will Baniyas SC vs Al Bataeh have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 72%.
What is the head-to-head record between Baniyas SC and Al Bataeh?
Record (4 meetings): Baniyas SC 0W | Draws 2 | Al Bataeh 2W.
What form are Baniyas SC and Al Bataeh in?
Baniyas SC (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Al Bataeh (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Baniyas SC's attack at 0.99x the league average against Al Bataeh's defence at 1.09x — combine the two and it projects 2.02 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al Bataeh's attack versus Baniyas SC's defence, projects 1.73 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.3%), 2-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Baniyas SC Win
44%
2.29
24%
4.10
32%
3.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.2%
Draw
2 – 2
7.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.02
Baniyas SC xG
Total xG
3.75
1.73
Al Bataeh xG
2.29
44%
Home win
4.10
24%
Draw
3.13
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
72%
Over 2.5
1.39
28%
Under 2.5
3.57
52%
Over 3.5
1.92
48%
Under 3.5
2.08
32%
Over 4.5
3.12
68%
Under 4.5
1.47
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
73%
BTTS Yes
1.37
27%
BTTS No
3.70
Clean Sheet
18%
5.64
13%
7.57
Win to Nil
8%
12.93
4%
23.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.3 | 4.1 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 4.7 | 8.2 | 7.1 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 8.3 | 7.2 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 5.6 | 4.8 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Baniyas SC vs Al Bataeh?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.3%.
How many goals are Baniyas SC and Al Bataeh expected to score?
The model projects 2.02 expected goals for Baniyas SC and 1.73 for Al Bataeh, a combined total of 3.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Baniyas SC vs Al Bataeh?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 35 outings, Baniyas SC have picked up 0.94 PPG on a 9W 6D 20L record — L-L-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Baniyas SC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Bataeh's form line: 11W 8D 16L from 35 games, 1.17 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-L. The sample for Al Bataeh is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Baniyas SC on 0.94 PPG, Al Bataeh on 1.17. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Baniyas SC have posted 1.41 PPG from 17 outings (7W 3D 7L). That's noticeably better than their 0.94 PPG overall — Baniyas SC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Al Bataeh have gone 6W 3D 8L from 17 away games — 1.24 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Baniyas SC are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.94 conceded per game recently; Al Bataeh are on 1.54 scored and 1.91 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Baniyas SC have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; Al Bataeh in 74%.
Last 35 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Baniyas SC
Blended
Al Bataeh
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Baniyas SC and Al Bataeh in coming into this match?
Baniyas SC have gone 9W 6D 20L in their last 35 games (0.94 PPG), while Al Bataeh have gone 11W 8D 16L in their last 35 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Baniyas SC at home or Al Bataeh away?
Baniyas SC's home record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Baniyas SC at home: 1.41 PPG; Al Bataeh away: 1.24 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 27 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Baniyas SC's record when hosting Al Bataeh specifically: 0W 3D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Baniyas SC
4
Draws
3
Al Bataeh
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Baniyas SC and Al Bataeh?
From 8 meetings on record, Baniyas SC have won 1, Al Bataeh have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Baniyas SC and Al Bataeh last play each other?
They last met on 27 February 2026, when Al Bataeh 0-1 Baniyas SC.
Who has won more matches between Baniyas SC and Al Bataeh?
Al Bataeh have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Baniyas SC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Al Bataeh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Baniyas SC at 71%, Al Bataeh at 65%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 65% for Baniyas SC and 76% for Al Bataeh. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Baniyas SC home games / Al Bataeh away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Baniyas SC play Al Bataeh?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Baniyas SC's games and 65% of Al Bataeh's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Baniyas SC vs Al Bataeh usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Baniyas SC's matches and 76% of Al Bataeh's.
Do Baniyas SC and Al Bataeh tend to score early?
Baniyas SC have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Al Bataeh in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Baniyas SC and Al Bataeh share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Baniyas Stadium, Regular Season - 10, as Baniyas SC and Al Bataeh drew 1-1 in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Baniyas SC 2.02 xG and Al Bataeh 1.73 xG, a combined 3.75. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Baniyas SC fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Baniyas SC attack 0.99 / defence 1.28 against Al Bataeh attack 0.86 / defence 1.09, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Baniyas SC 44% | Draw 24% | Al Bataeh 32%, with Baniyas SC to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 52% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 73% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Baniyas SC 63%, Al Bataeh 74%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 69%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Baniyas SC's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Al Bataeh's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 74% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Baniyas SC 0.94 PPG, Al Bataeh 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Baniyas SC (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.88 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.