Villarreal 1-0 Valencia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Villarreal at 47% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Villarreal face Valencia.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Villarreal welcome Valencia to Estadio de la Cerámica in La Liga (matchday 29). Kick-off is Sunday 17 March 2024 at 15:15 UK time.
Form Guide
Villarreal — last 10 games: 4W 4D 2L, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: D D W W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters, Villarreal have posted 3W 4D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Valencia stand at 6W 2D 2L — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W L D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, Valencia have gone 2W 2D 6L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.60 PPG (Villarreal) versus 2.00 (Valencia). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 4 H2H matches, Villarreal have won 2, Valencia 1, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 2 Jan 2024, ended Villarreal 1–3 Valencia — a Valencia win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Villarreal in-play and half-time data (last 65 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 22 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).
Valencia in-play and half-time data (last 65 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Villarreal 65% versus Valencia 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Villarreal 57% | Valencia 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Villarreal 1.77 xG and Valencia 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Villarreal attack 1.134 / defence 1.201 | Valencia attack 0.971 / defence 1.083. League average goals — home 1.440 / away 1.111. Villarreal's defence rating of 1.201 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Valencia's projected output up. Data: built from Villarreal's last 66 games and Valencia's last 65.
Result probabilities: Villarreal 47% | Draw 26% | Valencia 27%. Fair-value odds: Villarreal 2.12 | Draw 3.82 | Valencia 3.75. Villarreal hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS Yes probability 62% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% — both xG figures (1.77 / 1.29) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Villarreal as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Villarreal offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.06 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Villarreal's last 10 home games and Valencia's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Villarreal 80% (last 10 home games) | Valencia 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Villarreal vs Valencia | Competition: La Liga, matchday 29 | Venue: Estadio de la Cerámica • Kick-off: Sunday 17 March 2024 at 15:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Villarreal 47% | Draw 26% | Valencia 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% (Under 41%) | BTTS Yes 62% (No 38%) | xG Villarreal 1.77 / Valencia 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Villarreal attack 1.134 / def 1.201 | Valencia attack 0.971 / def 1.083 | league avg home 1.440 / away 1.111 • Poisson stance: Villarreal (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.77
Villarreal xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Valencia xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Villarreal vs Valencia FAQs
What time does Villarreal vs Valencia kick off?
Villarreal vs Valencia kicked off at 15:15 UK time on Sunday 17 March 2024 at Estadio de la Cerámica.
What was the final score in Villarreal vs Valencia?
Villarreal 1 - 0 Valencia.
Where is Villarreal vs Valencia being played?
The match is being played at Estadio de la Cerámica.
What competition is Villarreal vs Valencia part of?
Villarreal vs Valencia is a La Liga fixture (matchday 29) (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Villarreal vs Valencia?
Our statistical model gives Villarreal a 47% chance of winning, Valencia a 27% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Villarreal the favourite.
Will both teams score in Villarreal vs Valencia?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Villarreal and Valencia will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Villarreal vs Valencia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Villarreal's attacking strength (1.13x league average) is weighed against Valencia's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.77. The same calculation in reverse, Valencia's attack versus Villarreal's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Villarreal's last 66 games and Valencia's last 65 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Villarreal Win
47%
2.12
26%
3.82
27%
3.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.77
Villarreal xG
Total xG
3.06
1.29
Valencia xG
2.12
47%
Home win
3.82
26%
Draw
3.75
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.61
Clean Sheet
27%
3.65
17%
5.86
Win to Nil
13%
7.74
5%
21.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 6.0 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 10.7 | 6.9 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 9.5 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 5.6 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Villarreal vs Valencia Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Villarreal vs Valencia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Villarreal and Valencia expected to score?
The model projects 1.77 expected goals for Villarreal and 1.29 for Valencia, a combined total of 3.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Villarreal vs Valencia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Villarreal come into this having played 65 games, going 27W 15D 23L for 1.48 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-W-W.
On the other side, Valencia sit at 1.26 PPG from 65 outings (22W 16D 27L), a run that reads W-L-D-D-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Villarreal on 1.48 PPG, Valencia on 1.26. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Villarreal's home form reads 15W 7D 10L across their last 32 home games, a 1.62 PPG return.
Away from home, Valencia have taken 0.78 points per game from their last 32 away games (6W 7D 19L). That's a step down from their 1.26 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Valencia's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Villarreal come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Villarreal are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Valencia are on 1.14 scored and 1.17 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Villarreal have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 65 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Villarreal
Current Season
Valencia
Blended
Villarreal (Home) vs Valencia (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Villarreal
Current Season
Valencia
Blended
❓ Villarreal vs Valencia Form FAQs
What form are Villarreal and Valencia in coming into this match?
Villarreal have gone 27W 15D 23L in their last 65 games (1.48 PPG), while Valencia have gone 22W 16D 27L in their last 65 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Villarreal at home or Valencia away?
Villarreal's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Villarreal at home: 1.62 PPG; Valencia away: 0.78 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from April 2022. All of them came in La Liga. The most recent was as recently as 24 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear recent trend here: Villarreal have taken the most recent 3 H2H results in our data.
Villarreal's record when hosting Valencia specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Villarreal
3
Draws
1
Valencia
Recent Meetings
❓ Villarreal vs Valencia H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Villarreal and Valencia?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Villarreal have won 6, Valencia have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Villarreal and Valencia last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 24 October 2026: Valencia 1-2 Villarreal.
Who has won more matches between Villarreal and Valencia?
Villarreal have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Villarreal are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 42% of those situations.
Valencia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Villarreal 72%, Valencia 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Villarreal) and 47% (Valencia).
On the defensive side: Valencia in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Villarreal home games / Valencia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Villarreal vs Valencia Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Villarreal and Valencia matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 72% of Villarreal's games and 53% of Valencia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Villarreal and Valencia matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of Villarreal's recent games and 47% of Valencia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Villarreal and Valencia matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of Villarreal's recent matches and 62% of Valencia's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Villarreal edge out Valencia 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Villarreal beat Valencia 1-0 at Estadio de la Cerámica, Regular Season - 29, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Villarreal 1.77 xG and Valencia 1.29 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Valencia landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Villarreal attack 1.13 / defence 1.20 against Valencia attack 0.97 / defence 1.08, drawn from 66/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Villarreal 47% | Draw 26% | Valencia 27%, with Villarreal to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Villarreal 57%, Valencia 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Villarreal's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Valencia's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Villarreal 1.48 PPG, Valencia 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Villarreal win broke the near-deadlock. Villarreal (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.31 average — tighter than their form line. Valencia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.91 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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