Getafe 1-0 Girona – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Getafe at 38%, yet in-form Girona provide a compelling counter-argument — this Getafe vs Girona fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Girona travel to Estadio Coliseum to take on Getafe in La Liga (matchday 29). The game is scheduled for Saturday 16 March 2024 at 17:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Getafe have gone 2W 3D 5L — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: W D L D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Getafe's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 3D 2L (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Getafe are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Girona stand at 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L L W L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.20. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On the road, Girona have gone 5W 2D 3L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Girona are 0.80 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 0.90), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Getafe, 2 for Girona and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 4.0 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 20 Aug 2023, ended Getafe 0–3 Girona — a Girona win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Getafe in-play tendencies (last 66 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 55% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Girona in-play tendencies (last 66 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Getafe 47% versus Girona 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Getafe 41% | Girona 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Getafe 1.49 xG and Girona 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Getafe attack 0.990 / defence 1.131 | Girona attack 1.101 / defence 1.040. League average goals — home 1.447 / away 1.123. Data: built from Getafe's last 66 games and Girona's last 66.
Result probabilities: Getafe 38% | Draw 29% | Girona 34%. Fair-value odds: Getafe 2.65 | Draw 3.51 | Girona 2.97. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS Yes probability 60% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% — both xG figures (1.49 / 1.40) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Getafe as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Girona (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Getafe offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.89 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 4.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Getafe 40% (last 10 home games) | Girona 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Getafe vs Girona | Competition: La Liga, matchday 29 | Venue: Estadio Coliseum • Kick-off: Saturday 16 March 2024 at 17:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Getafe 38% | Draw 29% | Girona 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% (Under 45%) | BTTS Yes 60% (No 40%) | xG Getafe 1.49 / Girona 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Getafe attack 0.990 / def 1.131 | Girona attack 1.101 / def 1.040 | league avg home 1.447 / away 1.123 • Poisson stance: Getafe (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Getafe xG
Expected Goals
1.40
Girona xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Getafe vs Girona FAQs
What time does Getafe vs Girona kick off?
Getafe vs Girona kicked off at 17:30 UK time on Saturday 16 March 2024 at Estadio Coliseum.
What was the final score in Getafe vs Girona?
Getafe 1 - 0 Girona.
Where is Getafe vs Girona being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Coliseum.
What competition is Getafe vs Girona part of?
Getafe vs Girona is a La Liga fixture (matchday 29) (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Getafe vs Girona?
Our statistical model gives Getafe a 38% chance of winning, Girona a 34% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Getafe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Getafe vs Girona?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Getafe and Girona will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Getafe vs Girona have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Getafe's attacking strength (0.99x league average) is weighed against Girona's defensive record (1.04x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.49. The same calculation in reverse, Girona's attack versus Getafe's defence, projects 1.40 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Getafe's last 66 games and Girona's last 66 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Getafe Win
38%
2.65
29%
3.51
34%
2.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Getafe xG
Total xG
2.89
1.40
Girona xG
2.65
38%
Home win
3.51
29%
Draw
2.97
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.51
Clean Sheet
25%
4.05
23%
4.44
Win to Nil
9%
10.72
8%
13.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 7.8 | 5.4 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 11.6 | 8.1 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.6 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.3 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Getafe vs Girona Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Getafe vs Girona?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Getafe and Girona expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Getafe and 1.40 for Girona, a combined total of 2.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Getafe vs Girona?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Getafe's recent record stands at 18W 23D 25L from 66 games, a 1.17 PPG return, with W-D-L-D-L in the last five.
Girona, meanwhile, have gone 32W 15D 19L across 66 games — 1.68 PPG, with L-L-W-L-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Girona by 0.51 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Getafe heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Getafe have managed 14W 10D 8L from their last 32 home games — 1.62 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.17 PPG overall — Getafe are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Girona's away record stands at 11W 10D 11L across their last 32 away games, a 1.34 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Getafe are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Girona are on 1.77 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Girona in 64%.
Last 66 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Getafe
Current Season
Girona
Current Season
Getafe (Home) vs Girona (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Getafe
Current Season
Girona
Current Season
❓ Getafe vs Girona Form FAQs
What form are Getafe and Girona in coming into this match?
Getafe have gone 18W 23D 25L in their last 66 games (1.17 PPG), while Girona have gone 32W 15D 19L in their last 66 (1.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Getafe at home or Girona away?
Getafe's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Getafe at home: 1.62 PPG; Girona away: 1.34 PPG.
Have Getafe or Girona been keeping clean sheets recently?
Getafe have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Girona in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 8 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2022. All of them came in La Liga. The most recent was on 26 January 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 20 Aug 2023, when Girona won Girona 3-0 Getafe.
Getafe's record when hosting Girona specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Getafe
1
Draws
3
Girona
Recent Meetings
❓ Getafe vs Girona H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Getafe and Girona?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Getafe have won 4, Girona have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Getafe and Girona last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 26 January 2026: Girona 1-1 Getafe.
Who has won more matches between Getafe and Girona?
Getafe have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Getafe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Girona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Getafe 44%, Girona 69% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Getafe) and 56% (Girona).
On the defensive side: Getafe keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Getafe have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Getafe home games / Girona away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Getafe vs Girona Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Getafe and Girona matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 44% of Getafe's games and 69% of Girona's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Getafe and Girona matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Getafe's recent games and 56% of Girona's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Getafe and Girona matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 62% of Getafe's recent matches and 75% of Girona's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Getafe edge out Girona 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Getafe beat Girona 1-0 at Estadio Coliseum, Regular Season - 29, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Getafe 1.49 xG and Girona 1.40 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Girona landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Getafe attack 0.99 / defence 1.13 against Girona attack 1.10 / defence 1.04, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Getafe 38% | Draw 29% | Girona 34%, with Getafe to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Getafe 41%, Girona 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Getafe's trading profile (66 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Girona's trading profile (66 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Girona arrived the stronger side — 1.68 PPG against 1.17. Form was overturned, with Getafe winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Getafe (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.03 average — tighter than their form line. Girona (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.47 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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