Valencia 1-0 Getafe – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Valencia at 51% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Valencia vs Getafe encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Getafe make the trip to Estadio de Mestalla to face Valencia in La Liga (matchday 28). The match kicks off on Saturday 9 March 2024 at 13:00 UK time.
Form
Valencia (all games): 5W 3D 2L across their last 10 — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W L D D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Valencia's form when playing at home: 5W 4D 1L across their last 10 home games (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Getafe have collected 1.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: D W D L D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.10. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Getafe's away record over their last 10 away games: 1W 6D 3L (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form favours the hosts. Valencia's 1.80 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Getafe's 1.00 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 5 H2H matches in our data, the wins are level at 2 apiece, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.8 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 8 Dec 2023, ended Valencia 0–1 Getafe — a Getafe win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Valencia half-time and goal-timing data (last 64 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 59% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Getafe half-time and goal-timing data (last 64 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 55% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Valencia 48% versus Getafe 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Valencia 45% | Getafe 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Valencia 1.62 xG and Getafe 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Valencia attack 0.957 / defence 0.786 | Getafe attack 1.044 / defence 1.191. League average goals — home 1.418 / away 1.118. Valencia have a tight defence (rating 0.786), which is pulling Getafe's projected output down. Data: built from Valencia's last 64 games and Getafe's last 65.
Result probabilities: Valencia 51% | Draw 29% | Getafe 19%. Fair-value odds: Valencia 1.94 | Draw 3.40 | Getafe 5.24. Valencia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Valencia as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Valencia if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.53 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.8 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Valencia 40% (last 10 home games) | Getafe 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Valencia vs Getafe | Competition: La Liga, matchday 28 | Venue: Estadio de Mestalla • Kick-off: Saturday 9 March 2024 at 13:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Valencia 51% | Draw 29% | Getafe 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% (Under 54%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Valencia 1.62 / Getafe 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Valencia attack 0.957 / def 0.786 | Getafe attack 1.044 / def 1.191 | league avg home 1.418 / away 1.118 • Poisson stance: Valencia (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Valencia xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Getafe xG
50%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Valencia vs Getafe FAQs
What time does Valencia vs Getafe kick off?
Valencia vs Getafe kicked off at 13:00 UK time on Saturday 9 March 2024 at Estadio de Mestalla.
What was the final score in Valencia vs Getafe?
Valencia 1 - 0 Getafe.
Where is Valencia vs Getafe being played?
The match is being played at Estadio de Mestalla.
What competition is Valencia vs Getafe part of?
Valencia vs Getafe is a La Liga fixture (matchday 28) (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Valencia vs Getafe?
Our statistical model gives Valencia a 51% chance of winning, Getafe a 19% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Valencia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Valencia vs Getafe?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Valencia and Getafe will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Valencia vs Getafe have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (54%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Valencia's attack rating (0.96) and Getafe's defence rating (1.19), the model arrives at 1.62 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Getafe's attack (1.04x) against Valencia's defence (0.79x) — and the away total comes out at 0.92.
These ratings are built from Valencia's last 64 games and Getafe's last 65 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.3%), 2-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Valencia Win
51%
1.94
29%
3.40
19%
5.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
2 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Valencia xG
Total xG
2.53
0.92
Getafe xG
1.94
51%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
5.24
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.98
50%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
40%
2.50
20%
5.03
Win to Nil
21%
4.86
4%
26.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 7.3 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.8 | 11.8 | 5.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.4 | 9.5 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Valencia vs Getafe Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Valencia vs Getafe?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Valencia and Getafe expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Valencia and 0.92 for Getafe, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Valencia vs Getafe?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Valencia's recent record stands at 21W 16D 27L from 64 games, a 1.23 PPG return, with L-W-L-D-D in the last five.
Getafe, meanwhile, have gone 18W 23D 23L across 64 games — 1.20 PPG, with D-W-D-L-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.23 PPG for Valencia against 1.20 for Getafe. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Valencia have managed 15W 9D 8L from their last 32 home games — 1.69 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.23 PPG overall — Valencia are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Getafe's away record stands at 4W 13D 15L across their last 32 away games, a 0.78 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.20 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Getafe's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Valencia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Valencia are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Getafe are on 1.09 scored and 1.30 conceded.
Last 64 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Valencia
Blended
Getafe
Blended
Valencia (Home) vs Getafe (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Valencia
Blended
Getafe
Blended
❓ Valencia vs Getafe Form FAQs
What form are Valencia and Getafe in coming into this match?
Valencia have gone 21W 16D 27L in their last 64 games (1.23 PPG), while Getafe have gone 18W 23D 23L in their last 64 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Valencia at home or Getafe away?
Valencia's home record (1.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Valencia at home: 1.69 PPG; Getafe away: 0.78 PPG.
Have Valencia or Getafe been keeping clean sheets recently?
Valencia have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Getafe in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to August 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in La Liga. The most recent was on 18 January 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear recent trend here: Valencia have taken the most recent 3 H2H results in our data.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Valencia won Valencia 5-1 Getafe on 4 Sep 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Valencia have gone 5W 0D 0L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Getafe — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Valencia
2
Draws
2
Getafe
Recent Meetings
❓ Valencia vs Getafe H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Valencia and Getafe?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Valencia have won 6, Getafe have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Valencia and Getafe last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 18 January 2026: Getafe 0-1 Valencia.
Who has won more matches between Valencia and Getafe?
Valencia have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Valencia see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Getafe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Valencia 44%, Getafe 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Valencia) and 44% (Getafe).
On the defensive side: Valencia keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Getafe in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Valencia home games / Getafe away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Valencia vs Getafe Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Valencia and Getafe matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Valencia's recent matches and 50% of Getafe's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Valencia and Getafe matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Valencia's recent games and 44% of Getafe's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Valencia and Getafe matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 59% of Valencia's recent matches and 75% of Getafe's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Valencia edge out Getafe 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Valencia beat Getafe 1-0 at Estadio de Mestalla, Regular Season - 28, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Valencia 1.62 xG and Getafe 0.92 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Getafe landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valencia attack 0.96 / defence 0.79 against Getafe attack 1.04 / defence 1.19, drawn from 64/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Valencia 51% | Draw 29% | Getafe 19%, with Valencia to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Valencia 45%, Getafe 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Valencia's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not.
Getafe's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Valencia 1.23 PPG, Getafe 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Valencia win broke the near-deadlock. Valencia (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.84 average — tighter than their form line. Getafe (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.97 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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