Las Palmas 0-1 Almeria – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Las Palmas at 47% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Las Palmas vs Almeria encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Las Palmas host Almeria at Estadio de Gran Canaria in La Liga (matchday 29). Kick-off is Sunday 17 March 2024 at 15:15 UK time.
Form Guide
Las Palmas — last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: W L D D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Las Palmas's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Across their last 10 games, Almeria have recorded 0W 5D 5L — 0.50 PPG. Last five: D D D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
When travelling, Almeria have posted 0W 1D 9L from their last 10 away outings — 0.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, Las Palmas have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.20 vs 0.50) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 1 wins for Las Palmas, 0 for Almeria and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 28 Oct 2023, ended Las Palmas 2–1 Almeria — a Las Palmas win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Las Palmas in-play and half-time data (last 28 games, 14 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 43% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 6 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Almeria in-play and half-time data (last 28 games, 14 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 100%; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Las Palmas 43% versus Almeria 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Las Palmas 32% | Almeria 64%). Note also that Almeria surrender HT leads in 100% of cases while Las Palmas recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 33% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Las Palmas 1.50 xG and Almeria 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Las Palmas attack 0.849 / defence 1.001 | Almeria attack 0.900 / defence 1.226. League average goals — home 1.440 / away 1.111. Almeria's defence rating of 1.226 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Las Palmas's projected output up. Data: built from Las Palmas's last 28 games and Almeria's last 66.
Result probabilities: Las Palmas 47% | Draw 29% | Almeria 24%. Fair-value odds: Las Palmas 2.12 | Draw 3.41 | Almeria 4.24. Las Palmas hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Las Palmas are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Las Palmas offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.50 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 54% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Las Palmas 50% (last 10 home games) | Almeria 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Las Palmas vs Almeria | Competition: La Liga, matchday 29 | Venue: Estadio de Gran Canaria • Kick-off: Sunday 17 March 2024 at 15:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Las Palmas 47% | Draw 29% | Almeria 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% (Under 54%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG Las Palmas 1.50 / Almeria 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Las Palmas attack 0.849 / def 1.001 | Almeria attack 0.900 / def 1.226 | league avg home 1.440 / away 1.111 • Poisson stance: Las Palmas (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Las Palmas xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Almeria xG
51%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Las Palmas vs Almeria FAQs
What time does Las Palmas vs Almeria kick off?
Las Palmas vs Almeria kicked off at 15:15 UK time on Sunday 17 March 2024 at Estadio de Gran Canaria.
What was the final score in Las Palmas vs Almeria?
Las Palmas 0 - 1 Almeria.
Where is Las Palmas vs Almeria being played?
The match is being played at Estadio de Gran Canaria.
What competition is Las Palmas vs Almeria part of?
Las Palmas vs Almeria is a La Liga fixture (matchday 29) (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Las Palmas vs Almeria?
Our statistical model gives Las Palmas a 47% chance of winning, Almeria a 24% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Las Palmas the favourite.
Will both teams score in Las Palmas vs Almeria?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Las Palmas and Almeria will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Las Palmas vs Almeria have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (54%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Las Palmas's attack rating (0.85) and Almeria's defence rating (1.23), the model arrives at 1.50 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Almeria's attack versus Las Palmas's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Las Palmas's last 28 games and Almeria's last 66 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.7%), 0-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Las Palmas Win
47%
2.12
29%
3.41
24%
4.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
2 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Las Palmas xG
Total xG
2.50
1.00
Almeria xG
2.12
47%
Home win
3.41
29%
Draw
4.24
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
37%
2.72
22%
4.48
Win to Nil
17%
5.78
5%
18.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 8.2 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 12.3 | 6.2 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.2 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Las Palmas vs Almeria Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Las Palmas vs Almeria?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Las Palmas and Almeria expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Las Palmas and 1.00 for Almeria, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Las Palmas vs Almeria?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 28 outings, Las Palmas have picked up 1.32 PPG on a 10W 7D 11L record — W-L-D-D-L across the most recent five.
Almeria's form line: 0W 10D 18L from 28 games, 0.36 PPG, last five D-D-D-L-D.
Put side by side, Las Palmas are the form team by 0.96 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Almeria.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Las Palmas have posted 1.57 PPG from their last 14 home games (6W 4D 4L).
On the road, Almeria have gone 0W 2D 12L from their last 14 away games — 0.14 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Las Palmas come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Las Palmas are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Almeria are on 0.96 scored and 2.04 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Almeria in 64%.
Last 28 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Las Palmas
Current Season
Almeria
Current Season
Las Palmas (Home) vs Almeria (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Las Palmas
Current Season
Almeria
Current Season
❓ Las Palmas vs Almeria Form FAQs
What form are Las Palmas and Almeria in coming into this match?
Las Palmas have gone 10W 7D 11L in their last 28 games (1.32 PPG), while Almeria have gone 0W 10D 18L in their last 28 (0.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Las Palmas at home or Almeria away?
Las Palmas's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Las Palmas at home: 1.57 PPG; Almeria away: 0.14 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 2 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2023. All of them came in La Liga. The most recent in our data was on 17 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Las Palmas
0
Draws
1
Almeria
Recent Meetings
❓ Las Palmas vs Almeria H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Las Palmas and Almeria?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Las Palmas have won 1, Almeria have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Las Palmas and Almeria last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 17 March 2024: Las Palmas 0-1 Almeria.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Las Palmas see a goal before the break in 43% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 60% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Almeria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Las Palmas 50%, Almeria 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Las Palmas) and 64% (Almeria).
On the defensive side: Las Palmas keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Almeria in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Las Palmas home games / Almeria away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Las Palmas vs Almeria Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Las Palmas and Almeria matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Las Palmas's games and 71% of Almeria's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Las Palmas and Almeria matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Las Palmas's recent games and 64% of Almeria's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Las Palmas and Almeria matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 43% of Las Palmas's recent matches and 79% of Almeria's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Almeria defy the odds to beat Las Palmas 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Almeria beat Las Palmas 0-1 at Estadio de Gran Canaria, Regular Season - 29, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Las Palmas 1.50 xG and Almeria 1.00 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Las Palmas fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Las Palmas attack 0.85 / defence 1.00 against Almeria attack 0.90 / defence 1.23, drawn from 28/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Las Palmas 47% | Draw 29% | Almeria 24%, with Las Palmas to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a Almeria win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Las Palmas 32%, Almeria 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Las Palmas's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Almeria's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Las Palmas arrived the stronger side — 1.32 PPG against 0.36. Form was overturned, with Almeria winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Las Palmas (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward. Almeria (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.29 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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