Pohang Steelers 0-0 Daegu FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Daegu FC at 44% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Pohang Steelers face Daegu FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Pohang Steelers welcome Daegu FC to Pohang Steel Yard in K League 1 (matchday 3). Kick-off is Saturday 1 March 2025 at 07:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Pohang Steelers have gone 2W 3D 5L — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: D L D L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Pohang Steelers's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 5L across their last 10 home games (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Daegu FC — last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L L L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Daegu FC's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Pohang Steelers 0.90 PPG, Daegu FC 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Pohang Steelers's games and 60% of Daegu FC's (from Pohang Steelers's last 10 home games and Daegu FC's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 7 H2H matches, Pohang Steelers have won 3, Daegu FC 1, with 3 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 7 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 24 Aug 2024, ended Pohang Steelers 1–2 Daegu FC — a Daegu FC win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Pohang Steelers in-play and half-time data (last 76 games, 38 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 21 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games).
Daegu FC in-play and half-time data (last 76 games, 38 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 53% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pohang Steelers 63% versus Daegu FC 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pohang Steelers 43% | Daegu FC 45%). Note also that Daegu FC surrender HT leads in 25% of cases while Pohang Steelers recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 40% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pohang Steelers 1.12 xG and Daegu FC 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pohang Steelers attack 0.843 / defence 1.148 | Daegu FC attack 1.007 / defence 0.975. League average goals — home 1.361 / away 1.245. Data: built from Pohang Steelers's last 35 games and Daegu FC's last 35. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Pohang Steelers 29% | Draw 26% | Daegu FC 44%. Fair-value odds: Pohang Steelers 3.41 | Draw 3.81 | Daegu FC 2.25. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Daegu FC as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Daegu FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.56 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 53% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 7 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Pohang Steelers 60% (last 10 home games) | Daegu FC 60% (last 10 away games).
The Poisson model's sample (Pohang Steelers 35 games, Daegu FC 35) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pohang Steelers vs Daegu FC | Competition: K League 1, matchday 3 | Venue: Pohang Steel Yard • Kick-off: Saturday 1 March 2025 at 07:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pohang Steelers 29% | Draw 26% | Daegu FC 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% (Under 53%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG Pohang Steelers 1.12 / Daegu FC 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: Pohang Steelers attack 0.843 / def 1.148 | Daegu FC attack 1.007 / def 0.975 | league avg home 1.361 / away 1.245 • Poisson stance: Daegu FC (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Pohang Steelers xG
Expected Goals
1.44
Daegu FC xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Pohang Steelers vs Daegu FC FAQs
What time does Pohang Steelers vs Daegu FC kick off?
Pohang Steelers vs Daegu FC kicked off at 07:30 UK time on Saturday 1 March 2025 at Pohang Steel Yard.
What was the final score in Pohang Steelers vs Daegu FC?
Pohang Steelers 0 - 0 Daegu FC.
Where is Pohang Steelers vs Daegu FC being played?
The match is being played at Pohang Steel Yard.
What competition is Pohang Steelers vs Daegu FC part of?
Pohang Steelers vs Daegu FC is a K League 1 fixture (matchday 3) (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Pohang Steelers vs Daegu FC?
Our statistical model gives Pohang Steelers a 29% chance of winning, Daegu FC a 44% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Daegu FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pohang Steelers vs Daegu FC?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Pohang Steelers and Daegu FC will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Pohang Steelers vs Daegu FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (53%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Pohang Steelers's attack rating (0.84) and Daegu FC's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 1.12 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Daegu FC's attack versus Pohang Steelers's defence, projects 1.44 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Pohang Steelers's last 35 games and Daegu FC's last 35, a sample that still includes some older results.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.5%), 0-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Daegu FC Win
29%
3.41
26%
3.81
44%
2.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Pohang Steelers xG
Total xG
2.56
1.44
Daegu FC xG
3.41
29%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
2.25
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
24%
4.22
33%
3.06
Win to Nil
7%
14.37
15%
6.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 11.2 | 8.0 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 12.5 | 9.0 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 7.0 | 5.0 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.6 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Pohang Steelers vs Daegu FC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Pohang Steelers vs Daegu FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Pohang Steelers and Daegu FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Pohang Steelers and 1.44 for Daegu FC, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Pohang Steelers vs Daegu FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Pohang Steelers come into this having played 76 games, going 30W 27D 19L for 1.54 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-L-L.
On the other side, Daegu FC sit at 1.25 PPG from 76 outings (23W 26D 27L), a run that reads D-L-L-L-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Pohang Steelers on 1.54 PPG, Daegu FC on 1.25. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Pohang Steelers's home form reads 18W 13D 7L across their last 38 home games, a 1.76 PPG return.
Away from home, Daegu FC have taken 1.05 points per game from their last 38 away games (10W 10D 18L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pohang Steelers come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Pohang Steelers are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Daegu FC are on 1.18 scored and 1.26 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pohang Steelers have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 76 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pohang Steelers
Current Season
Daegu FC
Current Season
Pohang Steelers (Home) vs Daegu FC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Pohang Steelers
Current Season
Daegu FC
Current Season
❓ Pohang Steelers vs Daegu FC Form FAQs
What form are Pohang Steelers and Daegu FC in coming into this match?
Pohang Steelers have gone 30W 27D 19L in their last 76 games (1.54 PPG), while Daegu FC have gone 23W 26D 27L in their last 76 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pohang Steelers at home or Daegu FC away?
Pohang Steelers's home record (1.76 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pohang Steelers at home: 1.76 PPG; Daegu FC away: 1.05 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from February 2023. All of them came in K League 1. The most recent in our data was on 27 July 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Pohang Steelers's record when hosting Daegu FC specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Pohang Steelers
5
Draws
1
Daegu FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Pohang Steelers vs Daegu FC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Pohang Steelers and Daegu FC?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Pohang Steelers have won 4, Daegu FC have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Pohang Steelers and Daegu FC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 27 July 2025: Daegu FC 0-1 Pohang Steelers.
Who has won more matches between Pohang Steelers and Daegu FC?
Pohang Steelers have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Pohang Steelers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 31% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
Daegu FC see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pohang Steelers 58%, Daegu FC 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Pohang Steelers) and 42% (Daegu FC).
On the defensive side: Pohang Steelers keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Daegu FC in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pohang Steelers home games / Daegu FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Pohang Steelers vs Daegu FC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Pohang Steelers and Daegu FC matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Pohang Steelers's recent matches and 50% of Daegu FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Pohang Steelers and Daegu FC matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Pohang Steelers's recent games and 42% of Daegu FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pohang Steelers and Daegu FC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 66% of Pohang Steelers's recent matches and 53% of Daegu FC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Pohang Steelers's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pohang Steelers and Daegu FC finished level at 0-0 at Pohang Steel Yard, Regular Season - 3, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pohang Steelers 1.12 xG and Daegu FC 1.44 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Pohang Steelers fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Daegu FC landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pohang Steelers attack 0.84 / defence 1.15 against Daegu FC attack 1.01 / defence 0.97, drawn from 35/35 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Pohang Steelers 29% | Draw 26% | Daegu FC 44%, with Daegu FC to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pohang Steelers 43%, Daegu FC 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pohang Steelers's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Daegu FC's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pohang Steelers 1.54 PPG, Daegu FC 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Pohang Steelers (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.34 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Daegu FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.03 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.39 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.