Al-Adalah 2-1 Al-Fateh – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Fateh at 57% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Adalah vs Al-Fateh encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al-Adalah host Al-Fateh at Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium in Pro League (matchday 12). Kick-off is Friday 6 January 2023 at 14:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Al-Adalah have gone 1W 2D 7L — a 0.50 PPG return. Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
At home, Al-Adalah have gone 1W 0D 4L in their last 5 home games (0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Al-Fateh stand at 5W 0D 5L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W W W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Al-Fateh's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Form points away from home here. Al-Fateh's 1.50 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Al-Adalah's 0.50 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
In-Play Profile
Al-Adalah in-play tendencies (last 11 games, 5 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 100% of their matches in home games; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 64% of games.
Al-Fateh in-play tendencies (last 11 games, 5 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in away games; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Adalah 36% versus Al-Fateh 36%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Adalah 46% | Al-Fateh 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Adalah 0.84 xG and Al-Fateh 1.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Adalah attack 0.630 / defence 1.260 | Al-Fateh attack 1.152 / defence 0.994. League average goals — home 1.349 / away 1.151. Al-Adalah's attack rating of 0.630 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.84. Al-Adalah's defence rating of 1.260 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Al-Fateh's projected output up. Data: built from Al-Adalah's last 11 games and Al-Fateh's last 40.
Result probabilities: Al-Adalah 19% | Draw 24% | Al-Fateh 57%. Fair-value odds: Al-Adalah 5.31 | Draw 4.13 | Al-Fateh 1.76. The model has a clear lean to Al-Fateh (57%) — a 33pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Fateh are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.51 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 54% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 54%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al-Adalah 20% (last 5 home games) | Al-Fateh 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Adalah vs Al-Fateh | Competition: Pro League, matchday 12 | Venue: Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 6 January 2023 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Adalah 19% | Draw 24% | Al-Fateh 57% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% (Under 54%) | BTTS Yes 46% (No 54%) | xG Al-Adalah 0.84 / Al-Fateh 1.67 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Adalah attack 0.630 / def 1.260 | Al-Fateh attack 1.152 / def 0.994 | league avg home 1.349 / away 1.151 • Poisson stance: Al-Fateh (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.84
Al-Adalah xG
Expected Goals
1.67
Al-Fateh xG
46%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Al-Adalah vs Al-Fateh FAQs
What time does Al-Adalah vs Al-Fateh kick off?
Al-Adalah vs Al-Fateh kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Friday 6 January 2023 at Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Adalah vs Al-Fateh?
Al-Adalah 2 - 1 Al-Fateh.
Where is Al-Adalah vs Al-Fateh being played?
The match is being played at Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Al-Adalah vs Al-Fateh part of?
Al-Adalah vs Al-Fateh is a Pro League fixture (matchday 12) (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Adalah vs Al-Fateh?
Our statistical model gives Al-Adalah a 19% chance of winning, Al-Fateh a 57% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Al-Fateh the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Adalah vs Al-Fateh?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Al-Adalah and Al-Fateh will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (54%).
Will Al-Adalah vs Al-Fateh have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (54%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Al-Adalah's attack at 0.63x the league average against Al-Fateh's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 0.84 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Fateh's attack versus Al-Adalah's defence, projects 1.67 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Al-Adalah's last 11 games and Al-Fateh's last 40 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (12.0%), 0-2 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Fateh Win
19%
5.31
24%
4.13
57%
1.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
0 – 2
11.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.84
Al-Adalah xG
Total xG
2.51
1.67
Al-Fateh xG
5.31
19%
Home win
4.13
24%
Draw
1.76
57%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
19%
5.31
43%
2.33
Win to Nil
4%
28.20
24%
4.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 13.5 | 11.3 | 6.3 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 11.4 | 9.5 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 2.9 | 4.8 | 4.0 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Al-Adalah vs Al-Fateh Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Adalah vs Al-Fateh?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Al-Adalah and Al-Fateh expected to score?
The model projects 0.84 expected goals for Al-Adalah and 1.67 for Al-Fateh, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Adalah vs Al-Fateh?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al-Adalah come into this having played 11 games, going 1W 2D 8L for 0.45 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-D.
On the other side, Al-Fateh sit at 1.36 PPG from 11 outings (5W 0D 6L), a run that reads L-W-W-W-L across their last five.
Al-Fateh carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.91 PPG clear of Al-Adalah — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Al-Adalah's home form reads 1W 0D 4L across their last 5 home games, a 0.60 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Fateh have taken 1.20 points per game from their last 5 away games (2W 0D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Fateh come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al-Adalah are averaging 0.45 goals scored and 1.82 conceded per game recently; Al-Fateh are on 1.55 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Last 11 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Adalah
Blended
Al-Fateh
Blended
Al-Adalah (Home) vs Al-Fateh (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Al-Adalah
Blended
Al-Fateh
Blended
❓ Al-Adalah vs Al-Fateh Form FAQs
What form are Al-Adalah and Al-Fateh in coming into this match?
Al-Adalah have gone 1W 2D 8L in their last 11 games (0.45 PPG), while Al-Fateh have gone 5W 0D 6L in their last 11 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Adalah at home or Al-Fateh away?
Al-Fateh's away record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Adalah at home: 0.60 PPG; Al-Fateh away: 1.20 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 2 H2H matches in our data, going back to January 2023. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent in our data was on 15 May 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Al-Adalah
0
Draws
0
Al-Fateh
Recent Meetings
❓ Al-Adalah vs Al-Fateh H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Adalah and Al-Fateh?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Al-Adalah have won 2, Al-Fateh have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al-Adalah and Al-Fateh last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 15 May 2023: Al-Fateh 2-4 Al-Adalah.
Who has won more matches between Al-Adalah and Al-Fateh?
Al-Adalah have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Adalah are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Al-Fateh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Adalah 20%, Al-Fateh 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 40% for Al-Adalah and 80% for Al-Fateh. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 0% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Adalah have failed to score in 80% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Adalah home games / Al-Fateh away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Al-Adalah vs Al-Fateh Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Al-Adalah and Al-Fateh matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 20% of Al-Adalah's recent matches and 60% of Al-Fateh's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Al-Adalah and Al-Fateh matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 40% of Al-Adalah's matches and 80% of Al-Fateh's.
Do Al-Adalah and Al-Fateh matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 100% of Al-Adalah's recent matches and 80% of Al-Fateh's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Al-Adalah defy the odds to beat Al-Fateh 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Adalah beat Al-Fateh 2-1 at Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 12, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Adalah 0.84 xG and Al-Fateh 1.67 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Al-Adalah beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Adalah attack 0.63 / defence 1.26 against Al-Fateh attack 1.15 / defence 0.99, drawn from 11/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Adalah 19% | Draw 24% | Al-Fateh 57%, with Al-Fateh to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a Al-Adalah win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Adalah 46%, Al-Fateh 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 36%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Adalah's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Fateh's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Fateh arrived the stronger side — 1.36 PPG against 0.45. Form was overturned, with Al-Adalah winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Al-Adalah (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.40 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Fateh (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.