Al-Fateh 0-2 Al-Fayha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Fateh at 64% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Fateh vs Al-Fayha encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees Al-Fayha travel to Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium to take on Al-Fateh. The game is scheduled for Friday 30 December 2022, 11:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Fateh stand at 5W 0D 5L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fateh, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Fateh's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 games at Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium this term (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Al-Fayha — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L W W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fayha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Fayha have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
On current form, Al-Fateh have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 0.80) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Al-Fateh, 0 for Al-Fayha and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 13 Jan 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Al-Fateh trading profile (39 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Al-Fayha trading profile (39 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Fateh 41% versus Al-Fayha 41%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Al-Fateh 51% | Al-Fayha 28%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fateh 2.07 xG and Al-Fayha 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fateh attack 1.286 / defence 0.902 | Al-Fayha attack 0.903 / defence 1.190. League average goals — home 1.354 / away 1.133. Al-Fateh carry an above-average attack strength of 1.286 — their λ of 2.07 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 39 Al-Fateh games / 40 Al-Fayha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Fateh 64% | Draw 20% | Al-Fayha 16%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fateh 1.56 | Draw 5.00 | Al-Fayha 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Al-Fateh (64%) — a 48pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.99. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 2.99 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Fateh at 64% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.99 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Al-Fateh 30% | Al-Fayha 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Fateh vs Al-Fayha | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 30 Dec 2022, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Fateh 64% | Draw 20% | Al-Fayha 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 53% | xG Al-Fateh 2.07 / Al-Fayha 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Fateh attack 1.286 / def 0.902 | Al-Fayha attack 0.903 / def 1.190 | league avg home 1.354 / away 1.133 • Poisson stance: Al-Fateh (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.07
Al-Fateh xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Al-Fayha xG
53%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Fateh vs Al-Fayha kick off?
Al-Fateh vs Al-Fayha kicked off at 11:30 on Friday 30 December 2022 at Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Fateh vs Al-Fayha?
Al-Fateh 0 - 2 Al-Fayha.
Where is Al-Fateh vs Al-Fayha being played?
The match is being played at Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Al-Fateh vs Al-Fayha part of?
Al-Fateh vs Al-Fayha is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Fateh vs Al-Fayha?
Our statistical model gives Al-Fateh a 64% chance of winning, Al-Fayha a 16% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Al-Fateh the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Fateh vs Al-Fayha?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Al-Fateh and Al-Fayha will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Fateh vs Al-Fayha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fateh and Al-Fayha?
Record (2 meetings): Al-Fateh 0W | Draws 2 | Al-Fayha 0W.
What form are Al-Fateh and Al-Fayha in?
Al-Fateh (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-W-W. Al-Fayha (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Al-Fateh's attacking strength (1.29x league average) is weighed against Al-Fayha's defensive record (1.19x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.07. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Fayha's attack versus Al-Fateh's defence, projects 0.92 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.8%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.7%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Fateh Win
64%
1.57
20%
4.94
16%
6.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.07
Al-Fateh xG
Total xG
2.99
0.92
Al-Fayha xG
1.57
64%
Home win
4.94
20%
Draw
6.31
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
40%
2.52
13%
7.93
Win to Nil
25%
3.94
2%
50.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.4 | 9.6 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.7 | 9.9 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.4 | 6.8 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.8 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Fateh vs Al-Fayha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are Al-Fateh and Al-Fayha expected to score?
The model projects 2.07 expected goals for Al-Fateh and 0.92 for Al-Fayha, a combined total of 2.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Fateh vs Al-Fayha?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al-Fateh's recent record stands at 14W 8D 17L from 39 games, a 1.28 PPG return, with W-L-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Al-Fateh is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Fayha, meanwhile, have gone 9W 13D 17L across 39 games — 1.03 PPG, with L-L-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for Al-Fayha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Fateh on 1.28 PPG, Al-Fayha on 1.03. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Al-Fateh have managed 8W 3D 9L from 20 games — 1.35 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Fayha's away record stands at 2W 7D 11L across 20 trips, a 0.65 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Fateh come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al-Fateh are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Al-Fayha are on 0.72 scored and 1.08 conceded.
Last 39 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Fateh
Blended
Al-Fayha
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Fateh and Al-Fayha in coming into this match?
Al-Fateh have gone 14W 8D 17L in their last 39 games (1.28 PPG), while Al-Fayha have gone 9W 13D 17L in their last 39 (1.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Fateh at home or Al-Fayha away?
Al-Fateh's home record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Fateh at home: 1.35 PPG; Al-Fayha away: 0.65 PPG.
Have Al-Fateh or Al-Fayha been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Fateh have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Al-Fayha in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Fateh and Al-Fayha runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 25 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Al-Fayha have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 May 2023, when Al-Fayha won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Fateh's record when hosting Al-Fayha specifically: 0W 2D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Al-Fateh
5
Draws
5
Al-Fayha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fateh and Al-Fayha?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Fateh have won 0, Al-Fayha have won 5, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Al-Fateh and Al-Fayha last play each other?
They last met on 25 January 2026, when Al-Fayha 2-0 Al-Fateh.
Who has won more matches between Al-Fateh and Al-Fayha?
Al-Fayha have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Fateh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Al-Fayha see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Fateh 40%, Al-Fayha 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Al-Fateh) and 35% (Al-Fayha).
On the defensive side: Al-Fateh have failed to score in 30% of games; Al-Fayha in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Fateh home games / Al-Fayha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Fateh play Al-Fayha?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Al-Fateh's recent matches and 55% of Al-Fayha's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Fateh vs Al-Fayha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Al-Fateh's recent games and 35% of Al-Fayha's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Fateh and Al-Fayha tend to score early?
Al-Fateh have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Al-Fayha in 55% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Fayha cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Al-Fateh.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Fayha beat Al-Fateh 0-2 at Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Fateh 2.07 xG and Al-Fayha 0.92 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Al-Fateh fell 2.1 short of their projected output. Al-Fayha outscored their 0.92 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Fateh attack 1.29 / defence 0.90 against Al-Fayha attack 0.90 / defence 1.19, drawn from 39/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Fateh 64% | Draw 20% | Al-Fayha 16%, with Al-Fateh to win its most likely call at 64%. Instead the game produced a Al-Fayha win, an outcome the model had rated at just 16% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Fateh 51%, Al-Fayha 28%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Fateh's trading profile (39 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Al-Fayha's trading profile (39 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Fateh 1.28 PPG, Al-Fayha 1.03 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Fayha win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Fateh (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.95 scoring average — below par going forward. Al-Fayha (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.70 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.45 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.