Al Taawon 0-1 Al Khaleej Saihat – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al Taawon at 69% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Taawon vs Al Khaleej Saihat encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al Taawon and Al Khaleej Saihat meet at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 12. This fixture gets under way on Friday 6 January 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Al Taawon's overall Pro League record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: L W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al Taawon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al Taawon have posted 4W 4D 2L at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Al Khaleej Saihat have collected 0.40 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 1W 1D 8L. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Al Khaleej Saihat, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Khaleej Saihat's form when playing away from home: 0W 0D 5L across 5 road games this term (0.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.20 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form favours the hosts. Al Taawon's 2.00 PPG return is 1.60 points per game ahead of Al Khaleej Saihat's 0.40 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading
Al Taawon half-time and goal-timing data (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
Al Khaleej Saihat half-time and goal-timing data (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 64% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Taawon 54% versus Al Khaleej Saihat 27%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Taawon 46% | Al Khaleej Saihat 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Taawon 2.13 xG and Al Khaleej Saihat 0.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Taawon attack 1.213 / defence 1.027 | Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.628 / defence 1.301. League average goals — home 1.349 / away 1.151. Al Khaleej Saihat bring a strong defensive rating of 1.301 — this is suppressing Al Taawon's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 41 Al Taawon games / 11 Al Khaleej Saihat games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Taawon 69% | Draw 19% | Al Khaleej Saihat 12%. Fair-value odds: Al Taawon 1.45 | Draw 5.26 | Al Khaleej Saihat 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Al Taawon (69%) — a 57pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al Taawon are the pick at 69% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.87 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates corroborate: Al Taawon 60% | Al Khaleej Saihat 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Taawon vs Al Khaleej Saihat | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: King Abdullah Sport City Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 6 Jan 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Taawon 69% | Draw 19% | Al Khaleej Saihat 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 46% | xG Al Taawon 2.13 / Al Khaleej Saihat 0.74 • Poisson strength factors: Al Taawon attack 1.213 / def 1.027 | Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.628 / def 1.301 | league avg home 1.349 / away 1.151 • Poisson stance: Al Taawon (69%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.13
Al Taawon xG
Expected Goals
0.74
Al Khaleej Saihat xG
46%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Taawon vs Al Khaleej Saihat kick off?
Al Taawon vs Al Khaleej Saihat kicked off at 14:00 on Friday 6 January 2023 at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Taawon vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Al Taawon 0 - 1 Al Khaleej Saihat.
Where is Al Taawon vs Al Khaleej Saihat being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium.
What competition is Al Taawon vs Al Khaleej Saihat part of?
Al Taawon vs Al Khaleej Saihat is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Taawon vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Our statistical model gives Al Taawon a 69% chance of winning, Al Khaleej Saihat a 12% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Al Taawon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Taawon vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Al Taawon and Al Khaleej Saihat will score (BTTS).
Will Al Taawon vs Al Khaleej Saihat have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taawon and Al Khaleej Saihat?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al Taawon and Al Khaleej Saihat in?
Al Taawon (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-L-W. Al Khaleej Saihat (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Al Taawon's attacking strength (1.21x league average) is weighed against Al Khaleej Saihat's defensive record (1.30x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.13. Flip it around — Al Khaleej Saihat's attack (0.63x) against Al Taawon's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 0.74.
These ratings are built from 41/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 12.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.9%), 1-1 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Taawon Win
69%
1.44
19%
5.31
12%
8.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
12.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.13
Al Taawon xG
Total xG
2.87
0.74
Al Khaleej Saihat xG
1.44
69%
Home win
5.31
19%
Draw
8.50
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
48%
2.10
12%
8.41
Win to Nil
33%
3.03
1%
71.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.1 | 8.9 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.8 | 9.5 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 9.1 | 6.8 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.9 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Taawon vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Al Taawon and Al Khaleej Saihat expected to score?
The model projects 2.13 expected goals for Al Taawon and 0.74 for Al Khaleej Saihat, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Taawon vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 69%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al Taawon come into this having played 11 games, going 7W 2D 2L for 2.09 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-L-W. The sample for Al Taawon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al Khaleej Saihat sit at 0.36 PPG from 11 outings (1W 1D 9L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Al Khaleej Saihat is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Taawon carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.73 PPG clear of Al Khaleej Saihat — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Al Taawon's home form reads 3W 1D 1L across 5 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Al Khaleej Saihat have taken 0.00 points per game from 5 outings (0W 0D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Taawon come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Al Taawon are averaging 1.64 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; Al Khaleej Saihat are on 0.36 scored and 1.73 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Khaleej Saihat in 27%.
Defensively: Al Taawon have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 11 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Taawon
Blended
Al Khaleej Saihat
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Taawon and Al Khaleej Saihat in coming into this match?
Al Taawon have gone 7W 2D 2L in their last 11 games (2.09 PPG), while Al Khaleej Saihat have gone 1W 1D 9L in their last 11 (0.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Taawon at home or Al Khaleej Saihat away?
Al Taawon's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Taawon at home: 2.00 PPG; Al Khaleej Saihat away: 0.00 PPG.
Have Al Taawon or Al Khaleej Saihat been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Taawon have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Al Khaleej Saihat in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to January 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Taawon have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Al Khaleej Saihat — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Al Taawon
3
Draws
1
Al Khaleej Saihat
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taawon and Al Khaleej Saihat?
From 8 meetings on record, Al Taawon have won 4, Al Khaleej Saihat have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Al Taawon and Al Khaleej Saihat last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when Al Taawon 1-1 Al Khaleej Saihat.
Who has won more matches between Al Taawon and Al Khaleej Saihat?
Al Taawon have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al Taawon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Al Khaleej Saihat are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Taawon 60%, Al Khaleej Saihat 20% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Al Taawon) and 60% (Al Khaleej Saihat).
On the defensive side: Al Taawon keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Al Khaleej Saihat in 80%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Taawon home games / Al Khaleej Saihat away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Taawon play Al Khaleej Saihat?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Al Taawon's recent matches and 20% of Al Khaleej Saihat's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Taawon vs Al Khaleej Saihat usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Al Taawon's recent games and 60% of Al Khaleej Saihat's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Taawon and Al Khaleej Saihat tend to score early?
Al Taawon have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Al Khaleej Saihat in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Al Khaleej Saihat defy the odds to beat Al Taawon 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Khaleej Saihat beat Al Taawon 0-1 at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium, Regular Season - 12, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Taawon 2.13 xG and Al Khaleej Saihat 0.74 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Al Taawon fell 2.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Taawon attack 1.21 / defence 1.03 against Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.63 / defence 1.30, drawn from 41/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Taawon 69% | Draw 19% | Al Khaleej Saihat 12%, with Al Taawon to win its most likely call at 69%. Instead the game produced a Al Khaleej Saihat win, an outcome the model had rated at just 12% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Taawon 46%, Al Khaleej Saihat 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Taawon's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Al Khaleej Saihat's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 27% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Taawon arrived the stronger side — 2.09 PPG against 0.36. Form was overturned, with Al Khaleej Saihat winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Al Taawon (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward. Al Khaleej Saihat (home/away splits) scored 1 against a 0.20 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.40 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.