Al-Fayha 2-2 Al Baten – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Fayha at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Fayha vs Al Baten encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al-Fayha and Al Baten meet at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 12. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 7 January 2023 at 11:30 UTC.
Current Form
Al-Fayha's overall Pro League record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L L W W W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fayha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Fayha at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Al Baten (all games): 0W 1D 9L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 0.10 points per game. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 2.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.90 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. This season is still relatively young for Al Baten, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al Baten have posted 1W 1D 8L from 10 away outings — 0.40 PPG. Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The points-per-game gap of 1.00 in Al-Fayha's favour (1.10 vs 0.10) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — Al-Fayha have seen both teams score in just 30% of their matches, Al Baten in only 20%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Al-Fayha 1W, Al Baten 1W, 0D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 2 previous contests averaged 1.5 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 11 Mar 2022, ended 1–0 with Al-Fayha winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Al-Fayha — key trading statistics (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Al Baten — key trading statistics (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 45% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 51% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Fayha 39% versus Al Baten 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fayha 27% | Al Baten 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fayha 1.67 xG and Al Baten 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fayha attack 0.866 / defence 1.099 | Al Baten attack 0.705 / defence 1.447. League average goals — home 1.336 / away 1.130. Al Baten bring a strong defensive rating of 1.447 — this is suppressing Al-Fayha's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 41 Al-Fayha games / 41 Al Baten games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Fayha 56% | Draw 24% | Al Baten 20%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fayha 1.79 | Draw 4.17 | Al Baten 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Al-Fayha (56%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Fayha are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.55 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates corroborate: Al-Fayha 30% | Al Baten 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Fayha vs Al Baten | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Jan 2023, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Fayha 56% | Draw 24% | Al Baten 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 47% | xG Al-Fayha 1.67 / Al Baten 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Fayha attack 0.866 / def 1.099 | Al Baten attack 0.705 / def 1.447 | league avg home 1.336 / away 1.130 • Poisson stance: Al-Fayha (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
Al-Fayha xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Al Baten xG
47%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Fayha vs Al Baten kick off?
Al-Fayha vs Al Baten kicked off at 11:30 on Saturday 7 January 2023 at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Fayha vs Al Baten?
Al-Fayha 2 - 2 Al Baten.
Where is Al-Fayha vs Al Baten being played?
The match is being played at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Al-Fayha vs Al Baten part of?
Al-Fayha vs Al Baten is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Fayha vs Al Baten?
Our statistical model gives Al-Fayha a 56% chance of winning, Al Baten a 20% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Al-Fayha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Fayha vs Al Baten?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Al-Fayha and Al Baten will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Fayha vs Al Baten have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fayha and Al Baten?
Record (2 meetings): Al-Fayha 1W | Draws 0 | Al Baten 1W.
What form are Al-Fayha and Al Baten in?
Al-Fayha (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-W-W-W. Al Baten (all comps): 0W-1D-9L in 10 | 0.10 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 2.90 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Al-Fayha's attack at 0.87x the league average against Al Baten's defence at 1.45x — combine the two and it projects 1.67 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al Baten's attack (0.70x) against Al-Fayha's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 0.88.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.6%), 2-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Fayha Win
56%
1.78
24%
4.13
20%
5.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
2 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
Al-Fayha xG
Total xG
2.55
0.88
Al Baten xG
1.78
56%
Home win
4.13
24%
Draw
5.12
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
42%
2.40
19%
5.33
Win to Nil
23%
4.27
4%
27.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 6.8 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.1 | 11.5 | 5.0 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.9 | 9.6 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 6.1 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Fayha vs Al Baten?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Al-Fayha and Al Baten expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Al-Fayha and 0.88 for Al Baten, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Fayha vs Al Baten?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al-Fayha's recent record stands at 11W 13D 17L from 41 games, a 1.12 PPG return, with L-L-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Al-Fayha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Baten, meanwhile, have gone 8W 10D 23L across 41 games — 0.83 PPG, with L-L-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Al Baten is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.12 PPG for Al-Fayha against 0.83 for Al Baten. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Al-Fayha have managed 8W 6D 6L from 20 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al Baten's away record stands at 2W 4D 14L across 20 trips, a 0.50 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Fayha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al-Fayha are averaging 0.76 goals scored and 1.02 conceded per game recently; Al Baten are on 0.88 scored and 1.78 conceded.
Last 41 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Fayha
Blended
Al Baten
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Fayha and Al Baten in coming into this match?
Al-Fayha have gone 11W 13D 17L in their last 41 games (1.12 PPG), while Al Baten have gone 8W 10D 23L in their last 41 (0.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Fayha at home or Al Baten away?
Al-Fayha's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Fayha at home: 1.50 PPG; Al Baten away: 0.50 PPG.
Have Al-Fayha or Al Baten been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Fayha have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Al Baten in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Fayha have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Al Baten — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Al-Fayha
2
Draws
1
Al Baten
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fayha and Al Baten?
From 4 meetings on record, Al-Fayha have won 1, Al Baten have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Fayha and Al Baten last play each other?
They last met on 15 May 2023, when Al Baten 0-0 Al-Fayha.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al-Fayha see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Al Baten see a goal before the break in 45% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 25% (Al-Fayha) and 30% (Al Baten) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 20% for Al-Fayha and 45% for Al Baten.
On the defensive side: Al-Fayha keep a clean sheet in 55% of their matches; Al-Fayha have failed to score in 40% of games; Al Baten in 70%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Fayha home games / Al Baten away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Fayha play Al Baten?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Al-Fayha's recent matches and 30% of Al Baten's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Fayha vs Al Baten usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of Al-Fayha's recent games and 45% of Al Baten's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Al-Fayha and Al Baten share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 12, as Al-Fayha and Al Baten drew 2-2 in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Fayha 1.67 xG and Al Baten 0.88 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Al Baten outscored their 0.88 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Fayha attack 0.87 / defence 1.10 against Al Baten attack 0.70 / defence 1.45, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Fayha 56% | Draw 24% | Al Baten 20%, with Al-Fayha to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Fayha 27%, Al Baten 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Fayha's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Al Baten's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Fayha 1.12 PPG, Al Baten 0.83 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Al-Fayha (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.75 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.65 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al Baten (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.55 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.