Fakel 0-2 Zenit – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Zenit (43%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Fakel face Zenit.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Fakel welcome Zenit to Stadion Fakel in Premier League (matchday 20). Kick-off is Saturday 8 March 2025 at 11:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Fakel stand at 1W 6D 3L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D D L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Fakel's form when playing at home: 2W 6D 2L across their last 10 home games (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across their last 10 games, Zenit have recorded 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W L L D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Zenit away from home: 8W 1D 1L from their last 10 away games — 2.50 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.60 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 6 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (60%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 2.50 exceeds their overall 1.70 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Form points away from home here. Zenit's 1.70 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Fakel's 0.90 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Fakel's 30% BTTS rate and Zenit's 30% (from Fakel's last 10 home games and Zenit's last 10 away games) are both low — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
H2H
Zenit have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 3 of the 5 H2H matches we hold against 0 for Fakel.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 21 Sep 2024, ended Fakel 1–3 Zenit — a Zenit win.
Zenit have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 3 wins from 5 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
In-Play Data
Fakel trading profile (last 49 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 42% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 39%; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 4% of games (home games); they fail to score in 51% of games.
Zenit trading profile (last 49 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 43%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fakel 37% versus Zenit 47%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Fakel 26% | Zenit 49%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Fakel surrender their half-time lead 33% of the time, while Zenit have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 43% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fakel 0.82 xG and Zenit 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fakel attack 0.776 / defence 0.871 | Zenit attack 1.209 / defence 0.809. League average goals — home 1.308 / away 1.213. Fakel's attack rating of 0.776 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.82. Zenit have an above-average attack rating of 1.209, which lifts their away xG to 1.28. Data: built from Fakel's last 49 games and Zenit's last 49.
Result probabilities: Fakel 20% | Draw 37% | Zenit 43%. Fair-value odds: Fakel 4.98 | Draw 2.73 | Zenit 2.31. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 37% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS Yes probability 44% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 56% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Zenit are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. With a 37% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Zenit offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.10 combined xG gives a 65% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Fakel's last 10 home games and Zenit's last 10 away games) averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Fakel 30% (last 10 home games) | Zenit 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fakel vs Zenit | Competition: Premier League, matchday 20 | Venue: Stadion Fakel • Kick-off: Saturday 8 March 2025 at 11:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fakel 20% | Draw 37% | Zenit 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% (Under 65%) | BTTS Yes 44% (No 56%) | xG Fakel 0.82 / Zenit 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Fakel attack 0.776 / def 0.871 | Zenit attack 1.209 / def 0.809 | league avg home 1.308 / away 1.213 • Poisson stance: Zenit (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.82
Fakel xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Zenit xG
44%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Fakel vs Zenit FAQs
What time does Fakel vs Zenit kick off?
Fakel vs Zenit kicked off at 11:30 UK time on Saturday 8 March 2025 at Stadion Fakel.
What was the final score in Fakel vs Zenit?
Fakel 0 - 2 Zenit.
Where is Fakel vs Zenit being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Fakel.
What competition is Fakel vs Zenit part of?
Fakel vs Zenit is a Premier League fixture (matchday 20) (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Fakel vs Zenit?
Our statistical model gives Fakel a 20% chance of winning, Zenit a 43% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw — making Zenit the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fakel vs Zenit?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Fakel and Zenit will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (56%).
Will Fakel vs Zenit have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (65%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Fakel's attack rating (0.78) and Zenit's defence rating (0.81), the model arrives at 0.82 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Zenit's attack versus Fakel's defence, projects 1.28 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Fakel's last 49 games and Zenit's last 49 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-1 (14.0%), 0-0 (13.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Zenit Win
20%
4.98
37%
2.73
43%
2.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
12.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.82
Fakel xG
Total xG
2.10
1.28
Zenit xG
4.98
20%
Home win
2.73
37%
Draw
2.31
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.26
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
28%
3.59
44%
2.27
Win to Nil
6%
17.88
19%
5.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.3 | 15.7 | 10.0 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 12.9 | 8.2 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 5.3 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Fakel vs Zenit Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Fakel vs Zenit?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Fakel and Zenit expected to score?
The model projects 0.82 expected goals for Fakel and 1.28 for Zenit, a combined total of 2.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Fakel vs Zenit?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Fakel come into this having played 49 games, going 9W 19D 21L for 0.94 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-L-L.
On the other side, Zenit sit at 1.98 PPG from 49 outings (29W 10D 10L), a run that reads W-W-L-L-D across their last five.
Zenit carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.04 PPG clear of Fakel — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Fakel's home form reads 5W 13D 6L across their last 24 home games, a 1.17 PPG return.
Away from home, Zenit have taken 2.08 points per game from their last 24 away games (15W 5D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Zenit come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Fakel are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Zenit are on 1.82 scored and 0.80 conceded.
Defensively: Fakel have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games; Zenit in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 49 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fakel
Blended
Zenit
Blended
Fakel (Home) vs Zenit (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Fakel
Blended
Zenit
Blended
❓ Fakel vs Zenit Form FAQs
What form are Fakel and Zenit in coming into this match?
Fakel have gone 9W 19D 21L in their last 49 games (0.94 PPG), while Zenit have gone 29W 10D 10L in their last 49 (1.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fakel at home or Zenit away?
Zenit's away record (2.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fakel at home: 1.17 PPG; Zenit away: 2.08 PPG.
Have Fakel or Zenit been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fakel have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Zenit in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 7 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from October 2022. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was as recently as 29 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear recent trend here: Zenit have taken the most recent 3 H2H results in our data.
Fakel's record when hosting Zenit specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
0
Fakel
2
Draws
5
Zenit
Recent Meetings
❓ Fakel vs Zenit H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Fakel and Zenit?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, Fakel have won 0, Zenit have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Fakel and Zenit last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 29 August 2026: Fakel 0-1 Zenit.
Who has won more matches between Fakel and Zenit?
Zenit have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 7 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Fakel see a goal before the break in 42% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 83% of those situations.
Zenit are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fakel 29%, Zenit 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 4% for Fakel and 50% for Zenit.
On the defensive side: Fakel keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Zenit in 42%; Fakel have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fakel home games / Zenit away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Fakel vs Zenit Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Fakel and Zenit matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 29% of Fakel's recent matches and 50% of Zenit's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Fakel and Zenit matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 4% of Fakel's recent games and 50% of Zenit's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fakel and Zenit matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 42% of Fakel's recent matches and 75% of Zenit's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Zenit cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Fakel.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Zenit beat Fakel 0-2 at Stadion Fakel, Regular Season - 20, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fakel 0.82 xG and Zenit 1.28 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Fakel fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fakel attack 0.78 / defence 0.87 against Zenit attack 1.21 / defence 0.81, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fakel 20% | Draw 37% | Zenit 43%, with Zenit to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fakel 26%, Zenit 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fakel's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 51% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Zenit's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Zenit arrived the stronger side — 1.98 PPG against 0.94. Form held, and they took the win. Fakel (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.