Krylia Sovetov 0-2 Akron – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Krylia Sovetov at 49% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Krylia Sovetov face Akron.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Krylia Sovetov welcome Akron to Solidarnost Samara Arena in Premier League (matchday 20). Kick-off is Sunday 9 March 2025 at 13:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Krylia Sovetov stand at 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L W W L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Krylia Sovetov have posted 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 home games — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Akron have recorded 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
When travelling, Akron have posted 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Krylia Sovetov 0.90 PPG, Akron 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, Krylia Sovetov have won 0, Akron 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 3 Nov 2024, ended Krylia Sovetov 0–2 Akron — a Akron win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Krylia Sovetov in-play tendencies (last 21 games, 10 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Akron in-play tendencies (last 21 games, 10 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 50% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Krylia Sovetov 57% versus Akron 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Krylia Sovetov 52% | Akron 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Krylia Sovetov 1.69 xG and Akron 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Krylia Sovetov attack 0.971 / defence 1.064 | Akron attack 0.823 / defence 1.320. League average goals — home 1.320 / away 1.187. Akron's defence rating of 1.320 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Krylia Sovetov's projected output up. Data: built from Krylia Sovetov's last 49 games and Akron's last 19.
Result probabilities: Krylia Sovetov 49% | Draw 31% | Akron 20%. Fair-value odds: Krylia Sovetov 2.03 | Draw 3.23 | Akron 5.05. Krylia Sovetov hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Krylia Sovetov are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Krylia Sovetov offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.73 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Krylia Sovetov 60% (last 10 home games) | Akron 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Krylia Sovetov vs Akron | Competition: Premier League, matchday 20 | Venue: Solidarnost Samara Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 9 March 2025 at 13:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Krylia Sovetov 49% | Draw 31% | Akron 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% (Under 49%) | BTTS Yes 56% (No 44%) | xG Krylia Sovetov 1.69 / Akron 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Krylia Sovetov attack 0.971 / def 1.064 | Akron attack 0.823 / def 1.320 | league avg home 1.320 / away 1.187 • Poisson stance: Krylia Sovetov (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.69
Krylia Sovetov xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Akron xG
56%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Krylia Sovetov vs Akron FAQs
What time does Krylia Sovetov vs Akron kick off?
Krylia Sovetov vs Akron kicked off at 13:30 UK time on Sunday 9 March 2025 at Solidarnost Samara Arena.
What was the final score in Krylia Sovetov vs Akron?
Krylia Sovetov 0 - 2 Akron.
Where is Krylia Sovetov vs Akron being played?
The match is being played at Solidarnost Samara Arena.
What competition is Krylia Sovetov vs Akron part of?
Krylia Sovetov vs Akron is a Premier League fixture (matchday 20) (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Krylia Sovetov vs Akron?
Our statistical model gives Krylia Sovetov a 49% chance of winning, Akron a 20% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Krylia Sovetov the favourite.
Will both teams score in Krylia Sovetov vs Akron?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Krylia Sovetov and Akron will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Krylia Sovetov vs Akron have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Krylia Sovetov's attack at 0.97x the league average against Akron's defence at 1.32x — combine the two and it projects 1.69 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Akron's attack versus Krylia Sovetov's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Krylia Sovetov's last 49 games and Akron's last 19 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 1-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Krylia Sovetov Win
49%
2.03
31%
3.23
20%
5.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.69
Krylia Sovetov xG
Total xG
2.73
1.04
Akron xG
2.03
49%
Home win
3.23
31%
Draw
5.05
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
35%
2.83
18%
5.43
Win to Nil
17%
5.74
4%
27.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 6.8 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 11.5 | 6.0 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.7 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 5.5 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Krylia Sovetov vs Akron Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Krylia Sovetov vs Akron?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Krylia Sovetov and Akron expected to score?
The model projects 1.69 expected goals for Krylia Sovetov and 1.04 for Akron, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Krylia Sovetov vs Akron?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Krylia Sovetov come into this having played 21 games, going 5W 5D 11L for 0.95 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-L-D.
On the other side, Akron sit at 1.19 PPG from 21 outings (7W 4D 10L), a run that reads L-L-W-W-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Krylia Sovetov on 0.95 PPG, Akron on 1.19. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Krylia Sovetov's home form reads 3W 2D 5L across their last 10 home games, a 1.10 PPG return.
Away from home, Akron have taken 1.20 points per game from their last 10 away games (3W 3D 4L).
Goals in Recent Form
Krylia Sovetov are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Akron are on 1.24 scored and 1.81 conceded.
Last 21 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Krylia Sovetov
Blended
Akron
Blended
Krylia Sovetov (Home) vs Akron (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Krylia Sovetov
Blended
Akron
Blended
❓ Krylia Sovetov vs Akron Form FAQs
What form are Krylia Sovetov and Akron in coming into this match?
Krylia Sovetov have gone 5W 5D 11L in their last 21 games (0.95 PPG), while Akron have gone 7W 4D 10L in their last 21 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Krylia Sovetov at home or Akron away?
Akron's away record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Krylia Sovetov at home: 1.10 PPG; Akron away: 1.20 PPG.
Have Krylia Sovetov or Akron been keeping clean sheets recently?
Krylia Sovetov have kept a clean sheet in 14% of their recent games, Akron in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 5 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from November 2024. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was as recently as 23 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear recent trend here: Krylia Sovetov have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 17 May 2026, when Krylia Sovetov won Krylia Sovetov 4-1 Akron.
Krylia Sovetov's record when hosting Akron specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Krylia Sovetov
1
Draws
2
Akron
Recent Meetings
❓ Krylia Sovetov vs Akron H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Krylia Sovetov and Akron?
Across the 5 head-to-head matches in our data, Krylia Sovetov have won 2, Akron have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Krylia Sovetov and Akron last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 23 August 2026: Akron 0-3 Krylia Sovetov.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Krylia Sovetov are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Akron see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Krylia Sovetov 60%, Akron 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Krylia Sovetov and 60% for Akron. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Krylia Sovetov have failed to score in 30% of games; Akron in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Krylia Sovetov home games / Akron away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Krylia Sovetov vs Akron Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Krylia Sovetov and Akron matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Krylia Sovetov's recent matches and 40% of Akron's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Krylia Sovetov and Akron matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Krylia Sovetov's matches and 60% of Akron's.
Do Krylia Sovetov and Akron matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 60% of Krylia Sovetov's recent matches and 50% of Akron's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Akron cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Krylia Sovetov.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Akron beat Krylia Sovetov 0-2 at Solidarnost Samara Arena, Regular Season - 20, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Krylia Sovetov 1.69 xG and Akron 1.04 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Krylia Sovetov fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Akron outscored their 1.04 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Krylia Sovetov attack 0.97 / defence 1.06 against Akron attack 0.82 / defence 1.32, drawn from 49/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Krylia Sovetov 49% | Draw 31% | Akron 20%, with Krylia Sovetov to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Akron win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Krylia Sovetov 52%, Akron 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Krylia Sovetov's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Akron's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Krylia Sovetov 0.95 PPG, Akron 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Akron win broke the near-deadlock. Krylia Sovetov (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward. Akron (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.70 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.