Farense 2-0 Boavista – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Farense at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Farense vs Boavista fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Primeira Liga clash, Regular Season - 28 as Farense welcome Boavista to Estádio de São Lúis. Kick-off is set for Friday 5 April 2024 at 20:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Primeira Liga games this season, Farense have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.60 PPG return. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Farense, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Estádio de São Lúis, Farense have gone 2W 4D 4L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Boavista — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Primeira Liga fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Boavista, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Boavista away from home this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.60 PPG (Farense) versus 0.90 (Boavista). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Farense, 0 for Boavista and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 12 Nov 2023, ended 3–1 with Farense winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Farense trading profile (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Boavista trading profile (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Farense 59% and Boavista 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Farense 56% | Boavista 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Farense 1.41 xG and Boavista 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Farense attack 0.770 / defence 1.104 | Boavista attack 0.904 / defence 1.229. League average goals — home 1.488 / away 1.218. Farense's attack strength of 0.770 is below the league average — the 1.41 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Boavista bring a strong defensive rating of 1.229 — this is suppressing Farense's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 27 Farense games / 61 Boavista games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Farense 41% | Draw 26% | Boavista 32%. Fair-value odds: Farense 2.44 | Draw 3.85 | Boavista 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Farense as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Farense offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.62 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Farense 50% | Boavista 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Farense vs Boavista | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Estádio de São Lúis • Kick-off: Friday 5 Apr 2024, 20:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Farense 41% | Draw 26% | Boavista 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 53% | xG Farense 1.41 / Boavista 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Farense attack 0.770 / def 1.104 | Boavista attack 0.904 / def 1.229 | league avg home 1.488 / away 1.218 • Poisson stance: Farense (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Farense xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Boavista xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Farense vs Boavista kick off?
Farense vs Boavista kicked off at 20:15 on Friday 5 April 2024 at Estádio de São Lúis.
What was the final score in Farense vs Boavista?
Farense 2 - 0 Boavista.
Where is Farense vs Boavista being played?
The match is being played at Estádio de São Lúis.
What competition is Farense vs Boavista part of?
Farense vs Boavista is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Farense vs Boavista?
Our statistical model gives Farense a 41% chance of winning, Boavista a 32% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Farense the favourite.
Will both teams score in Farense vs Boavista?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Farense and Boavista will score (BTTS).
Will Farense vs Boavista have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Farense and Boavista?
Record (1 meetings): Farense 1W | Draws 0 | Boavista 0W.
What form are Farense and Boavista in?
Farense (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. Boavista (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Farense's attack rating (0.77) and Boavista's defence rating (1.23), the model arrives at 1.41 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Boavista's attack versus Farense's defence, projects 1.22 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 27/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.9%), 2-1 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Farense Win
41%
2.42
26%
3.79
32%
3.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
0 – 1
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Farense xG
Total xG
2.62
1.22
Boavista xG
2.42
41%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
3.09
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
30%
3.37
24%
4.09
Win to Nil
12%
8.17
8%
12.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 8.8 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 12.4 | 7.5 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 8.7 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.1 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Farense vs Boavista?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Farense and Boavista expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Farense and 1.22 for Boavista, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Farense vs Boavista?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 27 outings, Farense have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 7W 6D 14L record — L-L-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Farense is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Boavista's form line: 7W 8D 12L from 27 games, 1.07 PPG, last five L-D-W-L-D. The sample for Boavista is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Farense on 1.00 PPG, Boavista on 1.07. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Farense have posted 1.23 PPG from 13 outings (4W 4D 5L).
On the road, Boavista have gone 3W 3D 7L from 13 away games — 0.92 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Farense are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Boavista are on 1.22 scored and 1.89 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Boavista in 67%.
Last 27 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Farense
Blended
Boavista
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Farense and Boavista in coming into this match?
Farense have gone 7W 6D 14L in their last 27 games (1.00 PPG), while Boavista have gone 7W 8D 12L in their last 27 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Farense at home or Boavista away?
Farense's home record (1.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Farense at home: 1.23 PPG; Boavista away: 0.92 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Farense's record when hosting Boavista specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Farense
1
Draws
1
Boavista
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Farense and Boavista?
From 4 meetings on record, Farense have won 2, Boavista have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Farense and Boavista last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2025, when Farense 0-1 Boavista.
Who has won more matches between Farense and Boavista?
Farense have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Farense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Boavista are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Farense 46%, Boavista 69% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Farense) and 54% (Boavista).
On the defensive side: Farense keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Farense have failed to score in 31% of games; Boavista in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Farense home games / Boavista away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Farense play Boavista?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 46% of Farense's games and 69% of Boavista's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Farense vs Boavista usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Farense's recent games and 54% of Boavista's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Farense and Boavista tend to score early?
Farense have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Boavista in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Farense cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Boavista.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Farense beat Boavista 2-0 at Estádio de São Lúis, Regular Season - 28, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Farense 1.41 xG and Boavista 1.22 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Boavista landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Farense attack 0.77 / defence 1.10 against Boavista attack 0.90 / defence 1.23, drawn from 27/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Farense 41% | Draw 26% | Boavista 32%, with Farense to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Farense 56%, Boavista 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Farense's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Boavista's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Farense 1.00 PPG, Boavista 1.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Farense win broke the near-deadlock. Farense (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.15 average — tighter than their form line. Boavista (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.23 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.