Vitória SC 1-1 Farense – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Vitória SC at 58% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Vitória SC vs Farense encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Vitória SC host Farense at Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 13 April 2024 at 15:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Vitória SC — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Primeira Liga outings this season, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques, Vitória SC have gone 7W 1D 2L this season (10 games, 2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Farense stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Primeira Liga matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Farense away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, Vitória SC have the edge — a 1.40 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 0.60) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Vitória SC have won 1, Farense 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 2 Dec 2023, ended 2–1 with Vitória SC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Vitória SC trading profile (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).
Farense trading profile (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vitória SC 54% versus Farense 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vitória SC 54% | Farense 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vitória SC 1.87 xG and Farense 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vitória SC attack 1.064 / defence 0.836 | Farense attack 0.901 / defence 1.187. League average goals — home 1.482 / away 1.268. Data: 62 Vitória SC games / 28 Farense games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vitória SC 58% | Draw 23% | Farense 18%. Fair-value odds: Vitória SC 1.72 | Draw 4.35 | Farense 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Vitória SC (58%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Vitória SC are the pick at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.83 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: Vitória SC 40% | Farense 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vitória SC vs Farense | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Apr 2024, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vitória SC 58% | Draw 23% | Farense 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 52% | xG Vitória SC 1.87 / Farense 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Vitória SC attack 1.064 / def 0.836 | Farense attack 0.901 / def 1.187 | league avg home 1.482 / away 1.268 • Poisson stance: Vitória SC (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.87
Vitória SC xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Farense xG
52%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vitória SC vs Farense kick off?
Vitória SC vs Farense kicked off at 15:30 on Saturday 13 April 2024 at Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques.
What was the final score in Vitória SC vs Farense?
Vitória SC 1 - 1 Farense.
Where is Vitória SC vs Farense being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques.
What competition is Vitória SC vs Farense part of?
Vitória SC vs Farense is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Vitória SC vs Farense?
Our statistical model gives Vitória SC a 58% chance of winning, Farense a 18% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Vitória SC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vitória SC vs Farense?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Vitória SC and Farense will score (BTTS).
Will Vitória SC vs Farense have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vitória SC and Farense?
Record (1 meetings): Vitória SC 1W | Draws 0 | Farense 0W.
What form are Vitória SC and Farense in?
Vitória SC (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Farense (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Vitória SC's attack at 1.06x the league average against Farense's defence at 1.19x — combine the two and it projects 1.87 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Farense's attack versus Vitória SC's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 62/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (10.4%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Vitória SC Win
58%
1.71
23%
4.34
18%
5.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
2 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.87
Vitória SC xG
Total xG
2.83
0.96
Farense xG
1.71
58%
Home win
4.34
23%
Draw
5.41
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
38%
2.60
15%
6.50
Win to Nil
22%
4.45
3%
35.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 5.7 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.1 | 10.6 | 5.1 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.4 | 9.9 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.5 | 6.2 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.0 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vitória SC vs Farense?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Vitória SC and Farense expected to score?
The model projects 1.87 expected goals for Vitória SC and 0.96 for Farense, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Vitória SC vs Farense?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Vitória SC come into this having played 28 games, going 17W 5D 6L for 2.00 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-W.
On the other side, Farense sit at 1.07 PPG from 28 outings (8W 6D 14L), a run that reads L-L-D-L-W across their last five.
Vitória SC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.93 PPG clear of Farense — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Vitória SC's home form reads 10W 1D 3L across 14 games on their own ground, a 2.21 PPG return.
Away from home, Farense have taken 0.79 points per game from 14 outings (3W 2D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Vitória SC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Vitória SC are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Farense are on 1.32 scored and 1.43 conceded.
Last 28 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vitória SC
Current Season
Farense
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vitória SC and Farense in coming into this match?
Vitória SC have gone 17W 5D 6L in their last 28 games (2.00 PPG), while Farense have gone 8W 6D 14L in their last 28 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vitória SC at home or Farense away?
Vitória SC's home record (2.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vitória SC at home: 2.21 PPG; Farense away: 0.79 PPG.
Have Vitória SC or Farense been keeping clean sheets recently?
Vitória SC have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Farense in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Vitória SC's record when hosting Farense specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Vitória SC
2
Draws
1
Farense
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vitória SC and Farense?
From 4 meetings on record, Vitória SC have won 1, Farense have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Vitória SC and Farense last play each other?
They last met on 11 May 2025, when Vitória SC 1-2 Farense.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Vitória SC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Farense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vitória SC 50%, Farense 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for Vitória SC and 64% for Farense. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Vitória SC keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Farense in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vitória SC home games / Farense away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vitória SC play Farense?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Vitória SC's games and 71% of Farense's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Vitória SC vs Farense usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Vitória SC's matches and 64% of Farense's.
Do Vitória SC and Farense tend to score early?
Vitória SC have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Farense in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Vitória SC and Farense share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vitória SC and Farense finished level at 1-1 at Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques, Regular Season - 29, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vitória SC 1.87 xG and Farense 0.96 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Vitória SC fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vitória SC attack 1.06 / defence 0.84 against Farense attack 0.90 / defence 1.19, drawn from 62/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vitória SC 58% | Draw 23% | Farense 18%, with Vitória SC to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vitória SC 54%, Farense 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vitória SC's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Farense's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Vitória SC arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.07. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Vitória SC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.93 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.