Estoril 0-1 Famalicao – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Estoril at 40%, yet in-form Famalicao provide a compelling counter-argument — this Estoril vs Famalicao fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Full Analysis

Estádio António Coimbra da Mota plays host to Estoril versus Famalicao in Primeira Liga (matchday 31). Kick-off: Sunday 26 April 2026 at 16:30 UK time.

Form

Estoril (all games): 2W 2D 6L across their last 10 — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

Estoril's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across their last 10 home games (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Estoril are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Famalicao's record over their last 10 games: 5W 4D 1L (1.90 PPG). Last five: W W D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.

Famalicao away from home: 2W 4D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

The travelling side arrive in better shape. Famalicao are 1.10 PPG clear of Estoril over their recent games (1.90 vs 0.80). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.

H2H History

Neither side has dominated the 8 H2H matches in our data: 3 wins for Estoril, 4 for Famalicao and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral.

The 8 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 14 Dec 2025, ended Estoril 0–4 Famalicao — a Famalicao win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading & In-Play

Estoril — key trading statistics (last 64 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 22 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 32%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%; they fail to score in 31% of games.

Famalicao — key trading statistics (last 64 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 26%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Estoril 56% versus Famalicao 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Estoril 69% | Famalicao 47%). Note also that Famalicao surrender HT leads in 26% of cases while Estoril recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 32% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Estoril 1.51 xG and Famalicao 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Estoril attack 1.113 / defence 1.255 | Famalicao attack 0.998 / defence 0.924. League average goals — home 1.472 / away 1.131. Estoril's defence rating of 1.255 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Famalicao's projected output up. Data: built from Estoril's last 64 games and Famalicao's last 64.

Result probabilities: Estoril 40% | Draw 25% | Famalicao 36%. Fair-value odds: Estoril 2.51 | Draw 4.07 | Famalicao 2.81. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS Yes probability 59% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 59% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Estoril as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Famalicao (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Estoril if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.93 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Estoril's last 10 home games and Famalicao's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Estoril 80% (last 10 home games) | Famalicao 40% (last 10 away games).

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