Chaves 1-1 Farense – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Farense at 39% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Chaves vs Farense encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Chaves and Farense meet at Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira in Primeira Liga (matchday 20). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 4 February 2024 at 15:30 UK time.

Current Form

Chaves's record over their last 10 games: 1W 3D 6L (0.60 PPG). Last five: L D L D D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).

Chaves's home record over their last 10 home games: 2W 2D 6L (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Farense (all games): 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 — 1.40 points per game. Last five: L W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

On the road, Farense have gone 3W 1D 5L in their last 9 away fixtures (1.11 PPG). Away from home they average 1.33 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Farense arrive in superior form — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.40 vs 0.60) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 1 H2H match in our data, Farense edge it 1 wins to 0, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 5.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 26 Aug 2023, ended Chaves 0–5 Farense — a Farense win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 5.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading & In-Play

Chaves — key trading statistics (last 19 games, 9 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%; they fail to score in 42% of games.

Farense — key trading statistics (last 19 games, 9 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they fail to score in 37% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chaves 53% versus Farense 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chaves 68% | Farense 58%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Chaves 1.42 xG and Farense 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chaves attack 0.782 / defence 1.205 | Farense attack 0.946 / defence 1.179. League average goals — home 1.536 / away 1.317. Chaves's attack rating of 0.782 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.42. Chaves's defence rating of 1.205 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Farense's projected output up. Data: built from Chaves's last 53 games and Farense's last 19.

Result probabilities: Chaves 35% | Draw 26% | Farense 39%. Fair-value odds: Chaves 2.84 | Draw 3.89 | Farense 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS Yes probability 59% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 59% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Farense are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Farense if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.92 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Chaves's last 10 home games and Farense's last 9 away games) averaging 3.3 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Chaves 70% (last 10 home games) | Farense 56% (last 9 away games).

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