Farense 1-1 Famalicao – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Farense at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Farense vs Famalicao fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Primeira Liga encounter, Regular Season - 21 sees Famalicao travel to Estádio de São Lúis to take on Farense. The game is scheduled for Saturday 10 February 2024, 15:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Farense — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Primeira Liga outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: W L W L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Farense, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Estádio de São Lúis, Farense have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio de São Lúis.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Famalicao stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Primeira Liga matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Famalicao, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Famalicao have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Farense at 1.20 PPG versus Famalicao's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Farense have won 0, Famalicao 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 2 Sep 2023, ended 0–1 with Famalicao winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Farense in-play tendencies (20 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 35% of games.
Famalicao in-play tendencies (20 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Farense 50% versus Famalicao 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Farense 55% | Famalicao 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Farense 1.12 xG and Famalicao 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Farense attack 0.837 / defence 1.078 | Famalicao attack 0.753 / defence 0.880. League average goals — home 1.515 / away 1.248. Data: 20 Farense games / 53 Famalicao games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Farense 37% | Draw 31% | Famalicao 32%. Fair-value odds: Farense 2.70 | Draw 3.23 | Famalicao 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.13. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.13 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Farense at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Farense offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.13 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates corroborate: Farense 40% | Famalicao 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Farense vs Famalicao | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Estádio de São Lúis • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Feb 2024, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Farense 37% | Draw 31% | Famalicao 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 43% | xG Farense 1.12 / Famalicao 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Farense attack 0.837 / def 1.078 | Famalicao attack 0.753 / def 0.880 | league avg home 1.515 / away 1.248 • Poisson stance: Farense (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Farense xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Famalicao xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Farense vs Famalicao kick off?
Farense vs Famalicao kicked off at 15:30 on Saturday 10 February 2024 at Estádio de São Lúis.
What was the final score in Farense vs Famalicao?
Farense 1 - 1 Famalicao.
Where is Farense vs Famalicao being played?
The match is being played at Estádio de São Lúis.
What competition is Farense vs Famalicao part of?
Farense vs Famalicao is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Farense vs Famalicao?
Our statistical model gives Farense a 37% chance of winning, Famalicao a 32% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Farense the favourite.
Will both teams score in Farense vs Famalicao?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Farense and Famalicao will score (BTTS).
Will Farense vs Famalicao have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Farense and Famalicao?
Record (1 meetings): Farense 0W | Draws 0 | Famalicao 1W.
What form are Farense and Famalicao in?
Farense (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-L-D. Famalicao (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Farense's attacking strength (0.84x league average) is weighed against Famalicao's defensive record (0.88x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.12. The same calculation in reverse, Famalicao's attack versus Farense's defence, projects 1.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 20/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.6%), 1-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Farense Win
37%
2.68
31%
3.27
32%
3.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
0 – 1
12.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Farense xG
Total xG
2.13
1.01
Famalicao xG
2.68
37%
Home win
3.27
31%
Draw
3.12
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.31
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
36%
2.75
33%
3.05
Win to Nil
14%
7.38
11%
9.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.9 | 12.1 | 6.1 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.3 | 13.4 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 7.5 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Farense vs Famalicao?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Farense and Famalicao expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Farense and 1.01 for Famalicao, a combined total of 2.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Farense vs Famalicao?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Farense come into this having played 20 games, going 7W 4D 9L for 1.25 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-L-D. The sample for Farense is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Famalicao sit at 1.15 PPG from 20 outings (5W 8D 7L), a run that reads L-D-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Famalicao is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Farense on 1.25 PPG, Famalicao on 1.15. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Farense's home form reads 4W 2D 4L across 10 games on their own ground, a 1.40 PPG return.
Away from home, Famalicao have taken 1.00 points per game from 10 outings (2W 4D 4L).
Goals in Recent Form
Farense are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Famalicao are on 1.00 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Last 20 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Farense
Blended
Famalicao
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Farense and Famalicao in coming into this match?
Farense have gone 7W 4D 9L in their last 20 games (1.25 PPG), while Famalicao have gone 5W 8D 7L in their last 20 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Farense at home or Famalicao away?
Farense's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Farense at home: 1.40 PPG; Famalicao away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Farense have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Farense's record when hosting Famalicao specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Farense
1
Draws
1
Famalicao
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Farense and Famalicao?
From 4 meetings on record, Farense have won 2, Famalicao have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Farense and Famalicao last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2025, when Farense 2-1 Famalicao.
Who has won more matches between Farense and Famalicao?
Farense have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Farense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Famalicao are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Farense 40%, Famalicao 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Farense) and 30% (Famalicao).
On the defensive side: Farense keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Farense have failed to score in 30% of games; Famalicao in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Farense home games / Famalicao away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Farense play Famalicao?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Farense's recent matches and 40% of Famalicao's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Farense vs Famalicao usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Farense's recent games and 30% of Famalicao's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Farense and Famalicao tend to score early?
Farense have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Famalicao in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Farense and Famalicao share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estádio de São Lúis, Regular Season - 21, as Farense and Famalicao drew 1-1 in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Farense 1.12 xG and Famalicao 1.01 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Farense attack 0.84 / defence 1.08 against Famalicao attack 0.75 / defence 0.88, drawn from 20/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Farense 37% | Draw 31% | Famalicao 32%, with Farense to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Farense 55%, Famalicao 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Farense's trading profile (20 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Famalicao's trading profile (20 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Farense 1.25 PPG, Famalicao 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.