Radomiak Radom 0-1 Slask Wroclaw – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Slask Wroclaw at 37% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Radomiak Radom vs Slask Wroclaw encounter.

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Analysis & Preview

Slask Wroclaw travel to Stadion Radomiaka Radom to take on Radomiak Radom in Ekstraklasa (matchday 16). The game is scheduled for Monday 27 November 2023 at 18:00 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, Radomiak Radom stand at 2W 4D 4L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W D W L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

Radomiak Radom's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 4D 3L (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Slask Wroclaw — last 10 games: 8W 2D 0L — 2.60 PPG. Last five: D W D W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.

When travelling, Slask Wroclaw have posted 5W 3D 2L from their last 10 away outings — 1.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.80 is notably below their overall 2.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Slask Wroclaw are 1.60 PPG ahead (2.60 vs 1.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Radomiak Radom's games and 60% of Slask Wroclaw's (from Radomiak Radom's last 10 home games and Slask Wroclaw's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H Record

The H2H picture is flat: the 4 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Radomiak Radom, 0 for Slask Wroclaw and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.

The 4 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.2 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 30 Apr 2023, ended Radomiak Radom 1–0 Slask Wroclaw — a Radomiak Radom win.

With a balanced win record and just 1.2 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

Trading Patterns

Radomiak Radom in-play and half-time data (last 49 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.

Slask Wroclaw in-play and half-time data (last 49 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Radomiak Radom 41% versus Slask Wroclaw 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Radomiak Radom 39% | Slask Wroclaw 45%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Radomiak Radom 1.05 xG and Slask Wroclaw 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Radomiak Radom attack 0.883 / defence 0.937 | Slask Wroclaw attack 1.075 / defence 0.834. League average goals — home 1.424 / away 1.189. Data: built from Radomiak Radom's last 49 games and Slask Wroclaw's last 49.

Result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 29% | Draw 34% | Slask Wroclaw 37%. Fair-value odds: Radomiak Radom 3.42 | Draw 2.93 | Slask Wroclaw 2.73. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Slask Wroclaw are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Slask Wroclaw offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.25 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 61% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.2 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 52%. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Radomiak Radom 60% (last 10 home games) | Slask Wroclaw 60% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.

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