ŁKS Łódź 0-2 Zaglebie Lubin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Zaglebie Lubin at 40% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this ŁKS Łódź vs Zaglebie Lubin encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Zaglebie Lubin travel to Stadion Miejski LKS Lodz to take on ŁKS Łódź in Ekstraklasa (matchday 16). The game is scheduled for Friday 24 November 2023 at 17:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, ŁKS Łódź stand at 0W 2D 8L — 0.20 PPG. Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly.
ŁKS Łódź's form when playing at home: 2W 2D 3L across their last 7 home games (1.14 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 2.14 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.14 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.20 — ŁKS Łódź are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, Zaglebie Lubin have recorded 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Zaglebie Lubin's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 1D 5L (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Zaglebie Lubin — 0.90 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.10 vs 0.20). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Trading Patterns
ŁKS Łódź in-play and half-time data (last 15 games, 7 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 86% of their matches in home games; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 53% of games.
Zaglebie Lubin in-play and half-time data (last 15 games, 7 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 100% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — ŁKS Łódź 40% versus Zaglebie Lubin 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (ŁKS Łódź 60% | Zaglebie Lubin 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects ŁKS Łódź 1.68 xG and Zaglebie Lubin 1.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: ŁKS Łódź attack 0.888 / defence 1.621 | Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.956 / defence 1.294. League average goals — home 1.458 / away 1.158. Zaglebie Lubin's defence rating of 1.294 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing ŁKS Łódź's projected output up. ŁKS Łódź's defence rating of 1.621 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Zaglebie Lubin's projected output up. Data: built from ŁKS Łódź's last 15 games and Zaglebie Lubin's last 49.
Result probabilities: ŁKS Łódź 35% | Draw 25% | Zaglebie Lubin 40%. Fair-value odds: ŁKS Łódź 2.87 | Draw 3.93 | Zaglebie Lubin 2.52. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS Yes probability 69% | Total xG 3.47. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.47 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% — both xG figures (1.68 / 1.79) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Zaglebie Lubin as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Zaglebie Lubin offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.47 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 67% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (ŁKS Łódź's last 7 home games and Zaglebie Lubin's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 69%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: ŁKS Łódź 43% (last 7 home games) | Zaglebie Lubin 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: ŁKS Łódź vs Zaglebie Lubin | Competition: Ekstraklasa, matchday 16 | Venue: Stadion Miejski LKS Lodz • Kick-off: Friday 24 November 2023 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: ŁKS Łódź 35% | Draw 25% | Zaglebie Lubin 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% (Under 33%) | BTTS Yes 69% (No 31%) | xG ŁKS Łódź 1.68 / Zaglebie Lubin 1.79 • Poisson strength factors: ŁKS Łódź attack 0.888 / def 1.621 | Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.956 / def 1.294 | league avg home 1.458 / away 1.158 • Poisson stance: Zaglebie Lubin (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
ŁKS Łódź xG
Expected Goals
1.79
Zaglebie Lubin xG
69%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ ŁKS Łódź vs Zaglebie Lubin FAQs
What time does ŁKS Łódź vs Zaglebie Lubin kick off?
ŁKS Łódź vs Zaglebie Lubin kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Friday 24 November 2023 at Stadion Miejski LKS Lodz.
What was the final score in ŁKS Łódź vs Zaglebie Lubin?
ŁKS Łódź 0 - 2 Zaglebie Lubin.
Where is ŁKS Łódź vs Zaglebie Lubin being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski LKS Lodz.
What competition is ŁKS Łódź vs Zaglebie Lubin part of?
ŁKS Łódź vs Zaglebie Lubin is a Ekstraklasa fixture (matchday 16) (Poland).
Who is favourite to win ŁKS Łódź vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Our statistical model gives ŁKS Łódź a 35% chance of winning, Zaglebie Lubin a 40% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Zaglebie Lubin the favourite.
Will both teams score in ŁKS Łódź vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both ŁKS Łódź and Zaglebie Lubin will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will ŁKS Łódź vs Zaglebie Lubin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from ŁKS Łódź's attack rating (0.89) and Zaglebie Lubin's defence rating (1.29), the model arrives at 1.68 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Zaglebie Lubin's attack versus ŁKS Łódź's defence, projects 1.79 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from ŁKS Łódź's last 15 games and Zaglebie Lubin's last 49 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.4%), 2-1 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Zaglebie Lubin Win
35%
2.87
25%
3.93
40%
2.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.4%
Away win
2 – 1
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
ŁKS Łódź xG
Total xG
3.47
1.79
Zaglebie Lubin xG
2.87
35%
Home win
3.93
25%
Draw
2.52
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.44
31%
BTTS No
3.26
Clean Sheet
17%
6.02
19%
5.34
Win to Nil
6%
17.29
7%
13.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 5.6 | 5.0 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 5.2 | 9.4 | 8.4 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 7.8 | 7.0 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 4.4 | 3.9 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ ŁKS Łódź vs Zaglebie Lubin Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for ŁKS Łódź vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are ŁKS Łódź and Zaglebie Lubin expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for ŁKS Łódź and 1.79 for Zaglebie Lubin, a combined total of 3.47.
How confident is the prediction model for ŁKS Łódź vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
ŁKS Łódź come into this having played 15 games, going 2W 2D 11L for 0.53 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-D.
On the other side, Zaglebie Lubin sit at 1.40 PPG from 15 outings (6W 3D 6L), a run that reads D-L-L-L-D across their last five.
Zaglebie Lubin carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.87 PPG clear of ŁKS Łódź — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
ŁKS Łódź's home form reads 2W 2D 3L across their last 7 home games, a 1.14 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.53 PPG overall — ŁKS Łódź are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Zaglebie Lubin have taken 0.86 points per game from their last 7 away games (2W 0D 5L). That's a step down from their 1.40 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Zaglebie Lubin's recent record.
Goals in Recent Form
ŁKS Łódź are averaging 0.73 goals scored and 2.13 conceded per game recently; Zaglebie Lubin are on 1.13 scored and 1.60 conceded.
Last 15 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
ŁKS Łódź
Blended
Zaglebie Lubin
Blended
ŁKS Łódź (Home) vs Zaglebie Lubin (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
ŁKS Łódź
Blended
Zaglebie Lubin
Blended
❓ ŁKS Łódź vs Zaglebie Lubin Form FAQs
What form are ŁKS Łódź and Zaglebie Lubin in coming into this match?
ŁKS Łódź have gone 2W 2D 11L in their last 15 games (0.53 PPG), while Zaglebie Lubin have gone 6W 3D 6L in their last 15 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — ŁKS Łódź at home or Zaglebie Lubin away?
ŁKS Łódź's home record (1.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — ŁKS Łódź at home: 1.14 PPG; Zaglebie Lubin away: 0.86 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 2 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from November 2023. All of them came in Ekstraklasa. The most recent in our data was on 20 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
ŁKS Łódź
0
Draws
2
Zaglebie Lubin
Recent Meetings
❓ ŁKS Łódź vs Zaglebie Lubin H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between ŁKS Łódź and Zaglebie Lubin?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, ŁKS Łódź have won 0, Zaglebie Lubin have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did ŁKS Łódź and Zaglebie Lubin last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 20 May 2024: Zaglebie Lubin 2-1 ŁKS Łódź.
Who has won more matches between ŁKS Łódź and Zaglebie Lubin?
Zaglebie Lubin have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
ŁKS Łódź are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Zaglebie Lubin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — ŁKS Łódź 43%, Zaglebie Lubin 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 57% for ŁKS Łódź and 71% for Zaglebie Lubin. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: ŁKS Łódź have failed to score in 43% of games; Zaglebie Lubin in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = ŁKS Łódź home games / Zaglebie Lubin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ ŁKS Łódź vs Zaglebie Lubin Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in ŁKS Łódź and Zaglebie Lubin matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of ŁKS Łódź's recent matches and 43% of Zaglebie Lubin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are ŁKS Łódź and Zaglebie Lubin matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of ŁKS Łódź's matches and 71% of Zaglebie Lubin's.
Do ŁKS Łódź and Zaglebie Lubin matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 86% of ŁKS Łódź's recent matches and 100% of Zaglebie Lubin's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Zaglebie Lubin cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over ŁKS Łódź.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Zaglebie Lubin beat ŁKS Łódź 0-2 at Stadion Miejski LKS Lodz, Regular Season - 16, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting ŁKS Łódź 1.68 xG and Zaglebie Lubin 1.79 xG, a combined 3.47. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. ŁKS Łódź fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of ŁKS Łódź attack 0.89 / defence 1.62 against Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.96 / defence 1.29, drawn from 15/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it ŁKS Łódź 35% | Draw 25% | Zaglebie Lubin 40%, with Zaglebie Lubin to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (ŁKS Łódź 60%, Zaglebie Lubin 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
ŁKS Łódź's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 53% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Zaglebie Lubin's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Zaglebie Lubin arrived the stronger side — 1.40 PPG against 0.53. Form held, and they took the win. ŁKS Łódź (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward. Zaglebie Lubin (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.43 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.