Widzew Łódź 0-3 Radomiak Radom – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Widzew Łódź at 38% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Widzew Łódź vs Radomiak Radom encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź plays host to Widzew Łódź versus Radomiak Radom in Ekstraklasa (matchday 17). Kick-off: Saturday 2 December 2023 at 16:30 UK time.
Current Form
Widzew Łódź's record over their last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). Last five: D L D W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Widzew Łódź's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 0D 5L (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Radomiak Radom (all games): 2W 4D 4L across their last 10 — 1.00 points per game. Last five: D W L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
On the road, Radomiak Radom have gone 4W 1D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form favours the hosts. Widzew Łódź's 1.50 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Radomiak Radom's 1.00 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 2 H2H matches in our data, Radomiak Radom edge it 2 wins to 0, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 4.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 21 May 2023, ended Widzew Łódź 1–3 Radomiak Radom — a Radomiak Radom win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Widzew Łódź half-time and goal-timing data (last 50 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Radomiak Radom half-time and goal-timing data (last 50 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Widzew Łódź 52% versus Radomiak Radom 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Widzew Łódź 46% | Radomiak Radom 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Widzew Łódź 1.27 xG and Radomiak Radom 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Widzew Łódź attack 0.899 / defence 0.951 | Radomiak Radom attack 0.975 / defence 1.000. League average goals — home 1.415 / away 1.180. Data: built from Widzew Łódź's last 50 games and Radomiak Radom's last 50.
Result probabilities: Widzew Łódź 38% | Draw 32% | Radomiak Radom 29%. Fair-value odds: Widzew Łódź 2.62 | Draw 3.08 | Radomiak Radom 3.40. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Widzew Łódź as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Widzew Łódź if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.37 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 58% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Widzew Łódź 40% (last 10 home games) | Radomiak Radom 30% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Widzew Łódź vs Radomiak Radom | Competition: Ekstraklasa, matchday 17 | Venue: Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź • Kick-off: Saturday 2 December 2023 at 16:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Widzew Łódź 38% | Draw 32% | Radomiak Radom 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% (Under 58%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Widzew Łódź 1.27 / Radomiak Radom 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Widzew Łódź attack 0.899 / def 0.951 | Radomiak Radom attack 0.975 / def 1.000 | league avg home 1.415 / away 1.180 • Poisson stance: Widzew Łódź (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Widzew Łódź xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Radomiak Radom xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Widzew Łódź vs Radomiak Radom FAQs
What time does Widzew Łódź vs Radomiak Radom kick off?
Widzew Łódź vs Radomiak Radom kicked off at 16:30 UK time on Saturday 2 December 2023 at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź.
What was the final score in Widzew Łódź vs Radomiak Radom?
Widzew Łódź 0 - 3 Radomiak Radom.
Where is Widzew Łódź vs Radomiak Radom being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź.
What competition is Widzew Łódź vs Radomiak Radom part of?
Widzew Łódź vs Radomiak Radom is a Ekstraklasa fixture (matchday 17) (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Widzew Łódź vs Radomiak Radom?
Our statistical model gives Widzew Łódź a 38% chance of winning, Radomiak Radom a 29% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Widzew Łódź the favourite.
Will both teams score in Widzew Łódź vs Radomiak Radom?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Widzew Łódź and Radomiak Radom will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Widzew Łódź vs Radomiak Radom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (58%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Widzew Łódź's attack at 0.90x the league average against Radomiak Radom's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 1.27 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Radomiak Radom's attack (0.97x) against Widzew Łódź's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 1.09.
These ratings are built from Widzew Łódź's last 50 games and Radomiak Radom's last 50 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.1%), 1-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Widzew Łódź Win
38%
2.62
32%
3.08
29%
3.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Widzew Łódź xG
Total xG
2.37
1.09
Radomiak Radom xG
2.62
38%
Home win
3.08
32%
Draw
3.40
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
33%
2.99
28%
3.57
Win to Nil
13%
7.83
8%
12.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 10.3 | 5.6 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 13.1 | 7.1 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 8.3 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Widzew Łódź vs Radomiak Radom Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Widzew Łódź vs Radomiak Radom?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Widzew Łódź and Radomiak Radom expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Widzew Łódź and 1.09 for Radomiak Radom, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Widzew Łódź vs Radomiak Radom?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Widzew Łódź's recent record stands at 17W 12D 21L from 50 games, a 1.26 PPG return, with D-L-D-W-W in the last five.
Radomiak Radom, meanwhile, have gone 17W 12D 21L across 50 games — 1.26 PPG, with D-W-L-D-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.26 PPG for Widzew Łódź against 1.26 for Radomiak Radom. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Widzew Łódź have managed 10W 3D 11L from their last 24 home games — 1.38 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Radomiak Radom's away record stands at 10W 4D 10L across their last 24 away games, a 1.42 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Widzew Łódź are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Radomiak Radom are on 1.04 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Last 50 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Widzew Łódź
Blended
Radomiak Radom
Blended
Widzew Łódź (Home) vs Radomiak Radom (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Widzew Łódź
Blended
Radomiak Radom
Blended
❓ Widzew Łódź vs Radomiak Radom Form FAQs
What form are Widzew Łódź and Radomiak Radom in coming into this match?
Widzew Łódź have gone 17W 12D 21L in their last 50 games (1.26 PPG), while Radomiak Radom have gone 17W 12D 21L in their last 50 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Widzew Łódź at home or Radomiak Radom away?
Radomiak Radom's away record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Widzew Łódź at home: 1.38 PPG; Radomiak Radom away: 1.42 PPG.
Have Widzew Łódź or Radomiak Radom been keeping clean sheets recently?
Widzew Łódź have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Radomiak Radom in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 9 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to November 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Ekstraklasa. The most recent was as recently as 5 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Radomiak Radom won Widzew Łódź 0-3 Radomiak Radom on 2 Dec 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Widzew Łódź have gone 2W 1D 2L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Radomiak Radom — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Widzew Łódź
2
Draws
4
Radomiak Radom
Recent Meetings
❓ Widzew Łódź vs Radomiak Radom H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Widzew Łódź and Radomiak Radom?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Widzew Łódź have won 3, Radomiak Radom have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Widzew Łódź and Radomiak Radom last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 5 September 2026: Widzew Łódź 0-0 Radomiak Radom.
Who has won more matches between Widzew Łódź and Radomiak Radom?
Radomiak Radom have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Widzew Łódź are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Radomiak Radom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Widzew Łódź 46%, Radomiak Radom 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Widzew Łódź) and 50% (Radomiak Radom).
On the defensive side: Widzew Łódź keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Radomiak Radom in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Widzew Łódź home games / Radomiak Radom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Widzew Łódź vs Radomiak Radom Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Widzew Łódź and Radomiak Radom matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Widzew Łódź's recent matches and 38% of Radomiak Radom's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Widzew Łódź and Radomiak Radom matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Widzew Łódź's recent games and 50% of Radomiak Radom's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Widzew Łódź and Radomiak Radom matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 79% of Widzew Łódź's recent matches and 71% of Radomiak Radom's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Radomiak Radom run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Widzew Łódź.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Radomiak Radom beat Widzew Łódź 0-3 at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź, Regular Season - 17, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Widzew Łódź 1.27 xG and Radomiak Radom 1.09 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Widzew Łódź fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Radomiak Radom outscored their 1.09 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Widzew Łódź attack 0.90 / defence 0.95 against Radomiak Radom attack 0.97 / defence 1.00, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Widzew Łódź 38% | Draw 32% | Radomiak Radom 29%, with Widzew Łódź to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Radomiak Radom win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Widzew Łódź 46%, Radomiak Radom 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Widzew Łódź's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Radomiak Radom's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Widzew Łódź 1.26 PPG, Radomiak Radom 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Radomiak Radom win broke the near-deadlock. Widzew Łódź (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.42 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Radomiak Radom (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.04 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.