Puszcza Niepołomice 2-1 Gornik Zabrze – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Gornik Zabrze at 50% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Puszcza Niepołomice face Gornik Zabrze.

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Full Analysis

Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego plays host to Puszcza Niepołomice versus Gornik Zabrze in Ekstraklasa (matchday 16). Kick-off: Sunday 26 November 2023 at 11:30 UK time.

Form

Puszcza Niepołomice (all games): 2W 3D 5L across their last 10 — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D L L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

In front of their own supporters, Puszcza Niepołomice have posted 2W 3D 2L from their last 7 home games — 1.29 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 71% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Gornik Zabrze have collected 1.40 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: D W W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

When travelling, Gornik Zabrze have posted 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.90 PPG for Puszcza Niepołomice against 1.40 for Gornik Zabrze. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Puszcza Niepołomice's last 7 home games and Gornik Zabrze's last 10 away games) — Puszcza Niepołomice have seen both teams score in 71% of their games, Gornik Zabrze in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

Trading

Puszcza Niepołomice half-time and goal-timing data (last 15 games, 7 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 5 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 60%; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.

Gornik Zabrze half-time and goal-timing data (last 15 games, 7 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 86% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; of the 4 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Puszcza Niepołomice 67% versus Gornik Zabrze 47%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Puszcza Niepołomice 47% | Gornik Zabrze 33%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Puszcza Niepołomice 1.07 xG and Gornik Zabrze 1.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Puszcza Niepołomice attack 0.810 / defence 1.269 | Gornik Zabrze attack 1.140 / defence 0.931. League average goals — home 1.424 / away 1.182. Puszcza Niepołomice's defence rating of 1.269 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Gornik Zabrze's projected output up. Data: built from Puszcza Niepołomice's last 15 games and Gornik Zabrze's last 49.

Result probabilities: Puszcza Niepołomice 22% | Draw 28% | Gornik Zabrze 50%. Fair-value odds: Puszcza Niepołomice 4.62 | Draw 3.54 | Gornik Zabrze 2.00. Gornik Zabrze hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Gornik Zabrze as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Gornik Zabrze if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 2.78 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Puszcza Niepołomice 71% (last 7 home games) | Gornik Zabrze 60% (last 10 away games).

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