Radomiak Radom 1-1 Puszcza Niepołomice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Radomiak Radom at 59% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Radomiak Radom face Puszcza Niepołomice.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Puszcza Niepołomice make the trip to Stadion Radomiaka Radom to face Radomiak Radom in Ekstraklasa (matchday 9). The match kicks off on Saturday 23 September 2023 at 12:30 UK time.
Current Form
Radomiak Radom's record over their last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L (1.30 PPG). Last five: W W L D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Radomiak Radom's home record over their last 10 home games: 2W 4D 4L (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Puszcza Niepołomice (all games): 2W 1D 5L across their last 8 — 0.88 points per game. Last five: D L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.88 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 8 outings (12%). Both teams have scored in 62% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Puszcza Niepołomice's away record over their last 4 away games: 0W 0D 4L (0.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.75 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.00 is notably below their overall 0.88 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 0.88 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading Data
Radomiak Radom goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 8 games, 3 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games; they fail to score in 38% of games.
Puszcza Niepołomice goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 8 games, 3 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Radomiak Radom 38% versus Puszcza Niepołomice 62%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Radomiak Radom 25% | Puszcza Niepołomice 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Radomiak Radom 1.81 xG and Puszcza Niepołomice 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Radomiak Radom attack 0.992 / defence 1.095 | Puszcza Niepołomice attack 0.800 / defence 1.317. League average goals — home 1.387 / away 0.946. Puszcza Niepołomice's defence rating of 1.317 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Radomiak Radom's projected output up. Data: built from Radomiak Radom's last 42 games and Puszcza Niepołomice's last 8.
Result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 59% | Draw 26% | Puszcza Niepołomice 15%. Fair-value odds: Radomiak Radom 1.69 | Draw 3.89 | Puszcza Niepołomice 6.59. The model has a clear lean to Radomiak Radom (59%) — a 33pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Radomiak Radom are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.64 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 51%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Radomiak Radom 40% (last 10 home games) | Puszcza Niepołomice 50% (last 4 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Radomiak Radom vs Puszcza Niepołomice | Competition: Ekstraklasa, matchday 9 | Venue: Stadion Radomiaka Radom • Kick-off: Saturday 23 September 2023 at 12:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 59% | Draw 26% | Puszcza Niepołomice 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% (Under 51%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG Radomiak Radom 1.81 / Puszcza Niepołomice 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Radomiak Radom attack 0.992 / def 1.095 | Puszcza Niepołomice attack 0.800 / def 1.317 | league avg home 1.387 / away 0.946 • Poisson stance: Radomiak Radom (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.81
Radomiak Radom xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Puszcza Niepołomice xG
49%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Radomiak Radom vs Puszcza Niepołomice FAQs
What time does Radomiak Radom vs Puszcza Niepołomice kick off?
Radomiak Radom vs Puszcza Niepołomice kicked off at 12:30 UK time on Saturday 23 September 2023 at Stadion Radomiaka Radom.
What was the final score in Radomiak Radom vs Puszcza Niepołomice?
Radomiak Radom 1 - 1 Puszcza Niepołomice.
Where is Radomiak Radom vs Puszcza Niepołomice being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Radomiaka Radom.
What competition is Radomiak Radom vs Puszcza Niepołomice part of?
Radomiak Radom vs Puszcza Niepołomice is a Ekstraklasa fixture (matchday 9) (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Radomiak Radom vs Puszcza Niepołomice?
Our statistical model gives Radomiak Radom a 59% chance of winning, Puszcza Niepołomice a 15% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Radomiak Radom the favourite.
Will both teams score in Radomiak Radom vs Puszcza Niepołomice?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Radomiak Radom and Puszcza Niepołomice will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will Radomiak Radom vs Puszcza Niepołomice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (51%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Radomiak Radom's attack rating (0.99) and Puszcza Niepołomice's defence rating (1.32), the model arrives at 1.81 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Puszcza Niepołomice's attack (0.80x) against Radomiak Radom's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 0.83.
These ratings are built from Radomiak Radom's last 42 games and Puszcza Niepołomice's last 8 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.1%. Close behind: 2-0 (11.7%), 1-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Radomiak Radom Win
59%
1.69
26%
3.89
15%
6.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.7%
Home win
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.81
Radomiak Radom xG
Total xG
2.64
0.83
Puszcza Niepołomice xG
1.69
59%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
6.59
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
44%
2.29
16%
6.12
Win to Nil
26%
3.87
2%
40.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.9 | 10.7 | 4.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.7 | 9.7 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.1 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.2 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Radomiak Radom vs Puszcza Niepołomice Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Radomiak Radom vs Puszcza Niepołomice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Radomiak Radom and Puszcza Niepołomice expected to score?
The model projects 1.81 expected goals for Radomiak Radom and 0.83 for Puszcza Niepołomice, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Radomiak Radom vs Puszcza Niepołomice?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 8 outings, Radomiak Radom have picked up 1.25 PPG on a 3W 1D 4L record — W-W-L-D-L across the most recent five.
Puszcza Niepołomice's form line: 2W 1D 5L from 8 games, 0.88 PPG, last five D-L-W-L-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.25 PPG for Radomiak Radom against 0.88 for Puszcza Niepołomice. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Radomiak Radom have posted 1.33 PPG from their last 3 home games (1W 1D 1L).
On the road, Puszcza Niepołomice have gone 0W 0D 3L from their last 3 away games — 0.00 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 0.88 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Puszcza Niepołomice's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Radomiak Radom come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Radomiak Radom are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Puszcza Niepołomice are on 1.00 scored and 1.88 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Puszcza Niepołomice in 62%.
Last 8 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Radomiak Radom
Blended
Puszcza Niepołomice
Blended
Radomiak Radom (Home) vs Puszcza Niepołomice (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Radomiak Radom
Blended
Puszcza Niepołomice
Blended
❓ Radomiak Radom vs Puszcza Niepołomice Form FAQs
What form are Radomiak Radom and Puszcza Niepołomice in coming into this match?
Radomiak Radom have gone 3W 1D 4L in their last 8 games (1.25 PPG), while Puszcza Niepołomice have gone 2W 1D 5L in their last 8 (0.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Radomiak Radom at home or Puszcza Niepołomice away?
Radomiak Radom's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Radomiak Radom at home: 1.33 PPG; Puszcza Niepołomice away: 0.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 4 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to September 2023 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Ekstraklasa. The most recent in our data was on 21 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Radomiak Radom have gone 1W 1D 0L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Puszcza Niepołomice — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Radomiak Radom
3
Draws
0
Puszcza Niepołomice
Recent Meetings
❓ Radomiak Radom vs Puszcza Niepołomice H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Radomiak Radom and Puszcza Niepołomice?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Radomiak Radom have won 1, Puszcza Niepołomice have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Radomiak Radom and Puszcza Niepołomice last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 21 April 2025: Puszcza Niepołomice 2-2 Radomiak Radom.
Who has won more matches between Radomiak Radom and Puszcza Niepołomice?
Radomiak Radom have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Radomiak Radom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Puszcza Niepołomice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Radomiak Radom 67%, Puszcza Niepołomice 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Radomiak Radom and 33% for Puszcza Niepołomice.
On the defensive side: Radomiak Radom have failed to score in 33% of games; Puszcza Niepołomice in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Radomiak Radom home games / Puszcza Niepołomice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Radomiak Radom vs Puszcza Niepołomice Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Radomiak Radom and Puszcza Niepołomice matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Radomiak Radom's recent matches and 33% of Puszcza Niepołomice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Radomiak Radom and Puszcza Niepołomice matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Radomiak Radom's recent games and 33% of Puszcza Niepołomice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Radomiak Radom and Puszcza Niepołomice matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Radomiak Radom's recent matches and 67% of Puszcza Niepołomice's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Radomiak Radom and Puszcza Niepołomice share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Radomiak Radom and Puszcza Niepołomice finished level at 1-1 at Stadion Radomiaka Radom, Regular Season - 9, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Radomiak Radom 1.81 xG and Puszcza Niepołomice 0.83 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Radomiak Radom fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Radomiak Radom attack 0.99 / defence 1.09 against Puszcza Niepołomice attack 0.80 / defence 1.32, drawn from 42/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Radomiak Radom 59% | Draw 26% | Puszcza Niepołomice 15%, with Radomiak Radom to win its most likely call at 59%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Radomiak Radom 25%, Puszcza Niepołomice 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Radomiak Radom's trading profile (8 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did.
Puszcza Niepołomice's trading profile (8 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Radomiak Radom 1.25 PPG, Puszcza Niepołomice 0.88 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Puszcza Niepołomice (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.