Cracovia Krakow 1-5 Pogon Szczecin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cracovia Krakow at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cracovia Krakow vs Pogon Szczecin fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Pogon Szczecin make the trip to Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego to face Cracovia Krakow in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 9. The match kicks off on Saturday 23 September 2023 at 16:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Cracovia Krakow have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 3W 5D 2L. Last five: W D D D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Cracovia Krakow have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Cracovia Krakow have posted 4W 5D 1L at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Pogon Szczecin's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 5W 0D 5L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Pogon Szczecin have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Pogon Szczecin have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Cracovia Krakow against 1.50 for Pogon Szczecin. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Cracovia Krakow, 1 for Pogon Szczecin and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Apr 2023, ended 2–3 with Pogon Szczecin winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Cracovia Krakow — key trading statistics (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Pogon Szczecin — key trading statistics (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 45% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cracovia Krakow 42% versus Pogon Szczecin 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cracovia Krakow 34% | Pogon Szczecin 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cracovia Krakow 1.09 xG and Pogon Szczecin 0.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cracovia Krakow attack 0.911 / defence 0.877 | Pogon Szczecin attack 0.836 / defence 0.870. League average goals — home 1.375 / away 0.937. Data: 41 Cracovia Krakow games / 41 Pogon Szczecin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cracovia Krakow 43% | Draw 36% | Pogon Szczecin 21%. Fair-value odds: Cracovia Krakow 2.33 | Draw 2.78 | Pogon Szczecin 4.76. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 26% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 1.78. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 74% probability — total xG of 1.78 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Pogon Szczecin's lower xG of 0.69 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Cracovia Krakow are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 36% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cracovia Krakow if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 1.78 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 26% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 35% on No. Form rates corroborate: Cracovia Krakow 60% | Pogon Szczecin 20% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cracovia Krakow vs Pogon Szczecin | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Sep 2023, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cracovia Krakow 43% | Draw 36% | Pogon Szczecin 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 26% | BTTS 35% | xG Cracovia Krakow 1.09 / Pogon Szczecin 0.69 • Poisson strength factors: Cracovia Krakow attack 0.911 / def 0.877 | Pogon Szczecin attack 0.836 / def 0.870 | league avg home 1.375 / away 0.937 • Poisson stance: Cracovia Krakow (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Cracovia Krakow xG
Expected Goals
0.69
Pogon Szczecin xG
35%
BTTS
55%
Over 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cracovia Krakow vs Pogon Szczecin kick off?
Cracovia Krakow vs Pogon Szczecin kicked off at 16:30 on Saturday 23 September 2023 at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What was the final score in Cracovia Krakow vs Pogon Szczecin?
Cracovia Krakow 1 - 5 Pogon Szczecin.
Where is Cracovia Krakow vs Pogon Szczecin being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What competition is Cracovia Krakow vs Pogon Szczecin part of?
Cracovia Krakow vs Pogon Szczecin is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Cracovia Krakow vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our statistical model gives Cracovia Krakow a 43% chance of winning, Pogon Szczecin a 21% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making Cracovia Krakow the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cracovia Krakow vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Cracovia Krakow and Pogon Szczecin will score (BTTS).
Will Cracovia Krakow vs Pogon Szczecin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 26%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cracovia Krakow and Pogon Szczecin?
Record (3 meetings): Cracovia Krakow 0W | Draws 2 | Pogon Szczecin 1W.
What form are Cracovia Krakow and Pogon Szczecin in?
Cracovia Krakow (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-D-D-L. Pogon Szczecin (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Cracovia Krakow's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against Pogon Szczecin's defensive record (0.87x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.09. Flip it around — Pogon Szczecin's attack (0.84x) against Cracovia Krakow's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 0.69.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 18.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (16.8%), 1-1 (14.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 50% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cracovia Krakow Win
43%
2.32
36%
2.79
21%
4.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.4%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
16.9%
Draw
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Cracovia Krakow xG
Total xG
1.78
0.69
Pogon Szczecin xG
2.32
43%
Home win
2.79
36%
Draw
4.74
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
53%
Over 1.5
1.89
47%
Under 1.5
2.13
26%
Over 2.5
3.85
74%
Under 2.5
1.35
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.87
65%
BTTS No
1.53
Clean Sheet
50%
1.99
34%
2.97
Win to Nil
22%
4.62
7%
14.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.9 | 11.6 | 4.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 18.4 | 12.7 | 4.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.0 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.7 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cracovia Krakow vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.6%.
How many goals are Cracovia Krakow and Pogon Szczecin expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Cracovia Krakow and 0.69 for Pogon Szczecin, a combined total of 1.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Cracovia Krakow vs Pogon Szczecin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Cracovia Krakow's recent record stands at 14W 14D 13L from 41 games, a 1.37 PPG return, with W-D-D-D-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Cracovia Krakow, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Pogon Szczecin, meanwhile, have gone 20W 9D 12L across 41 games — 1.68 PPG, with L-L-L-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Pogon Szczecin, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.37 PPG for Cracovia Krakow against 1.68 for Pogon Szczecin. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Cracovia Krakow have managed 9W 7D 4L from 20 games — 1.70 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Pogon Szczecin's away record stands at 8W 5D 7L across 20 trips, a 1.45 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Cracovia Krakow are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Pogon Szczecin are on 1.54 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Defensively: Cracovia Krakow have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 41 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cracovia Krakow
Early Season
Pogon Szczecin
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cracovia Krakow and Pogon Szczecin in coming into this match?
Cracovia Krakow have gone 14W 14D 13L in their last 41 games (1.37 PPG), while Pogon Szczecin have gone 20W 9D 12L in their last 41 (1.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cracovia Krakow at home or Pogon Szczecin away?
Cracovia Krakow's home record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cracovia Krakow at home: 1.70 PPG; Pogon Szczecin away: 1.45 PPG.
Have Cracovia Krakow or Pogon Szczecin been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cracovia Krakow have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Pogon Szczecin in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since March 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 3 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Pogon Szczecin won 1-5 on 23 Sep 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cracovia Krakow have gone 1W 3D 2L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Pogon Szczecin — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Cracovia Krakow
3
Draws
6
Pogon Szczecin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cracovia Krakow and Pogon Szczecin?
From 10 meetings on record, Cracovia Krakow have won 1, Pogon Szczecin have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Cracovia Krakow and Pogon Szczecin last play each other?
They last met on 3 August 2026, when Cracovia Krakow 0-2 Pogon Szczecin.
Who has won more matches between Cracovia Krakow and Pogon Szczecin?
Pogon Szczecin have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Cracovia Krakow see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Pogon Szczecin see a goal before the break in 45% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cracovia Krakow 35%, Pogon Szczecin 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 30% (Cracovia Krakow) and 45% (Pogon Szczecin).
On the defensive side: Cracovia Krakow keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches; Cracovia Krakow have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cracovia Krakow home games / Pogon Szczecin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cracovia Krakow play Pogon Szczecin?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 35% of Cracovia Krakow's recent matches and 55% of Pogon Szczecin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cracovia Krakow vs Pogon Szczecin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of Cracovia Krakow's recent games and 45% of Pogon Szczecin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Dominant Pogon Szczecin run riot with a 1-5 hammering of Cracovia Krakow.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pogon Szczecin beat Cracovia Krakow 1-5 at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego, Regular Season - 9, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cracovia Krakow 1.09 xG and Pogon Szczecin 0.69 xG, a combined 1.78. The scoreboard read 1-5 for 6 actual goals. Pogon Szczecin outscored their 0.69 projection by 4.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cracovia Krakow attack 0.91 / defence 0.88 against Pogon Szczecin attack 0.84 / defence 0.87, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cracovia Krakow 43% | Draw 36% | Pogon Szczecin 21%, with Cracovia Krakow to win its most likely call at 43%. Instead the game produced a Pogon Szczecin win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 26%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 55% and landed. Over 3.5 was 10% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cracovia Krakow 34%, Pogon Szczecin 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cracovia Krakow's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Pogon Szczecin's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cracovia Krakow 1.37 PPG, Pogon Szczecin 1.68 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Pogon Szczecin win broke the near-deadlock. Cracovia Krakow (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 0.60 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Pogon Szczecin (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.25 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.