Pogon Szczecin 3-1 Korona Kielce – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pogon Szczecin at 38% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Pogon Szczecin face Korona Kielce.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera plays host to Pogon Szczecin versus Korona Kielce in Ekstraklasa (matchday 8). Kick-off: Saturday 16 September 2023 at 15:00 UK time.
Current Form
Pogon Szczecin's record over their last 10 games: 5W 0D 5L (1.50 PPG). Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Pogon Szczecin's home record over their last 10 home games: 6W 1D 3L (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Korona Kielce (all games): 3W 2D 5L across their last 10 — 1.10 points per game. Last five: L L L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Korona Kielce away from home: 1W 4D 5L from their last 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.50 for Pogon Szczecin, 1.10 for Korona Kielce — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 2 H2H matches in our data, Pogon Szczecin edge it 1 wins to 0, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Scoring has been limited in the 2 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.5 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 18 Mar 2023, ended Pogon Szczecin 0–0 Korona Kielce — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Pogon Szczecin half-time and goal-timing data (last 40 games, 20 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 90% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 43%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games).
Korona Kielce half-time and goal-timing data (last 40 games, 20 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pogon Szczecin 58% versus Korona Kielce 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pogon Szczecin 55% | Korona Kielce 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pogon Szczecin 1.16 xG and Korona Kielce 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pogon Szczecin attack 0.963 / defence 1.229 | Korona Kielce attack 0.884 / defence 0.898. League average goals — home 1.339 / away 0.913. Pogon Szczecin's defence rating of 1.229 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Korona Kielce's projected output up. Data: built from Pogon Szczecin's last 40 games and Korona Kielce's last 40.
Result probabilities: Pogon Szczecin 38% | Draw 32% | Korona Kielce 30%. Fair-value odds: Pogon Szczecin 2.62 | Draw 3.13 | Korona Kielce 3.35. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS Yes probability 44% | Total xG 2.15. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.15 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 56% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Pogon Szczecin at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Pogon Szczecin if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.15 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 64% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Pogon Szczecin 50% (last 10 home games) | Korona Kielce 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pogon Szczecin vs Korona Kielce | Competition: Ekstraklasa, matchday 8 | Venue: Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera • Kick-off: Saturday 16 September 2023 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pogon Szczecin 38% | Draw 32% | Korona Kielce 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% (Under 64%) | BTTS Yes 44% (No 56%) | xG Pogon Szczecin 1.16 / Korona Kielce 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Pogon Szczecin attack 0.963 / def 1.229 | Korona Kielce attack 0.884 / def 0.898 | league avg home 1.339 / away 0.913 • Poisson stance: Pogon Szczecin (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Pogon Szczecin xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Korona Kielce xG
44%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Pogon Szczecin vs Korona Kielce FAQs
What time does Pogon Szczecin vs Korona Kielce kick off?
Pogon Szczecin vs Korona Kielce kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 16 September 2023 at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera.
What was the final score in Pogon Szczecin vs Korona Kielce?
Pogon Szczecin 3 - 1 Korona Kielce.
Where is Pogon Szczecin vs Korona Kielce being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera.
What competition is Pogon Szczecin vs Korona Kielce part of?
Pogon Szczecin vs Korona Kielce is a Ekstraklasa fixture (matchday 8) (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Pogon Szczecin vs Korona Kielce?
Our statistical model gives Pogon Szczecin a 38% chance of winning, Korona Kielce a 30% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Pogon Szczecin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pogon Szczecin vs Korona Kielce?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Pogon Szczecin and Korona Kielce will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (56%).
Will Pogon Szczecin vs Korona Kielce have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (64%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Pogon Szczecin's attack rating (0.96) and Korona Kielce's defence rating (0.90), the model arrives at 1.16 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Korona Kielce's attack (0.88x) against Pogon Szczecin's defence (1.23x) — and the away total comes out at 0.99.
These ratings are built from Pogon Szczecin's last 40 games and Korona Kielce's last 40 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.4%), 1-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pogon Szczecin Win
38%
2.62
32%
3.13
30%
3.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
11.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Pogon Szczecin xG
Total xG
2.15
0.99
Korona Kielce xG
2.62
38%
Home win
3.13
32%
Draw
3.35
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.25
56%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
37%
2.70
31%
3.18
Win to Nil
14%
7.06
9%
10.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.6 | 11.6 | 5.7 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.5 | 13.4 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 7.7 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Pogon Szczecin vs Korona Kielce Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Pogon Szczecin vs Korona Kielce?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Pogon Szczecin and Korona Kielce expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Pogon Szczecin and 0.99 for Korona Kielce, a combined total of 2.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Pogon Szczecin vs Korona Kielce?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Pogon Szczecin come into this having played 40 games, going 19W 9D 12L for 1.65 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-L-L.
On the other side, Korona Kielce sit at 1.15 PPG from 40 outings (12W 10D 18L), a run that reads L-L-L-W-D across their last five.
Pogon Szczecin carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.50 PPG clear of Korona Kielce — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Pogon Szczecin's home form reads 11W 4D 5L across their last 20 home games, a 1.85 PPG return.
Away from home, Korona Kielce have taken 0.75 points per game from their last 20 away games (3W 6D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pogon Szczecin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Pogon Szczecin are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Korona Kielce are on 1.08 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Last 40 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pogon Szczecin
Early Season
Korona Kielce
Early Season
Pogon Szczecin (Home) vs Korona Kielce (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Pogon Szczecin
Early Season
Korona Kielce
Early Season
❓ Pogon Szczecin vs Korona Kielce Form FAQs
What form are Pogon Szczecin and Korona Kielce in coming into this match?
Pogon Szczecin have gone 19W 9D 12L in their last 40 games (1.65 PPG), while Korona Kielce have gone 12W 10D 18L in their last 40 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pogon Szczecin at home or Korona Kielce away?
Pogon Szczecin's home record (1.85 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pogon Szczecin at home: 1.85 PPG; Korona Kielce away: 0.75 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 9 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to September 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Ekstraklasa. The most recent was as recently as 11 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
Pogon Szczecin have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Pogon Szczecin won Pogon Szczecin 3-0 Korona Kielce on 20 Jul 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Pogon Szczecin have gone 4W 1D 0L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Korona Kielce — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
5
Pogon Szczecin
3
Draws
1
Korona Kielce
Recent Meetings
❓ Pogon Szczecin vs Korona Kielce H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Pogon Szczecin and Korona Kielce?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Pogon Szczecin have won 5, Korona Kielce have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Pogon Szczecin and Korona Kielce last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 11 October 2026: Pogon Szczecin 2-0 Korona Kielce.
Who has won more matches between Pogon Szczecin and Korona Kielce?
Pogon Szczecin have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Pogon Szczecin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Korona Kielce are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pogon Szczecin 60%, Korona Kielce 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 65% (Pogon Szczecin) and 50% (Korona Kielce). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pogon Szczecin home games / Korona Kielce away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Pogon Szczecin vs Korona Kielce Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Pogon Szczecin and Korona Kielce matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Pogon Szczecin's games and 60% of Korona Kielce's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Pogon Szczecin and Korona Kielce matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Pogon Szczecin's matches and 50% of Korona Kielce's.
Do Pogon Szczecin and Korona Kielce matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 90% of Pogon Szczecin's recent matches and 75% of Korona Kielce's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Pogon Szczecin cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Korona Kielce.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pogon Szczecin beat Korona Kielce 3-1 at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera, Regular Season - 8, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pogon Szczecin 1.16 xG and Korona Kielce 0.99 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Pogon Szczecin beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pogon Szczecin attack 0.96 / defence 1.23 against Korona Kielce attack 0.88 / defence 0.90, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pogon Szczecin 38% | Draw 32% | Korona Kielce 30%, with Pogon Szczecin to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pogon Szczecin 55%, Korona Kielce 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pogon Szczecin's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Korona Kielce's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Pogon Szczecin arrived the stronger side — 1.65 PPG against 1.15. Form held, and they took the win. Pogon Szczecin (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.75 average — above their attacking norm. Korona Kielce (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.60 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.