Cracovia Krakow 0-0 Korona Kielce – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cracovia Krakow at 52% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Cracovia Krakow face Korona Kielce.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Korona Kielce make the trip to Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego to face Cracovia Krakow in Ekstraklasa (matchday 7). The match kicks off on Saturday 2 September 2023 at 17:30 UK time.
Form
Cracovia Krakow (all games): 3W 5D 2L across their last 10 — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W W D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Cracovia Krakow's form when playing at home: 5W 4D 1L across their last 10 home games (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Cracovia Krakow are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Korona Kielce's record over their last 10 games: 3W 1D 6L (1.00 PPG). Last five: D L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Korona Kielce away from home: 1W 3D 6L from their last 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Cracovia Krakow against 1.00 for Korona Kielce. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Cracovia Krakow's last 10 home games and Korona Kielce's last 10 away games) — Cracovia Krakow have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Korona Kielce in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 2 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Cracovia Krakow, 1 for Korona Kielce and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 6 Feb 2023, ended Cracovia Krakow 1–2 Korona Kielce — a Korona Kielce win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading
Cracovia Krakow half-time and goal-timing data (last 39 games, 19 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 58% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games).
Korona Kielce half-time and goal-timing data (last 39 games, 19 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cracovia Krakow 44% versus Korona Kielce 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cracovia Krakow 36% | Korona Kielce 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cracovia Krakow 1.52 xG and Korona Kielce 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cracovia Krakow attack 1.086 / defence 0.964 | Korona Kielce attack 0.968 / defence 1.025. League average goals — home 1.367 / away 0.927. Data: built from Cracovia Krakow's last 39 games and Korona Kielce's last 39.
Result probabilities: Cracovia Krakow 52% | Draw 28% | Korona Kielce 20%. Fair-value odds: Cracovia Krakow 1.93 | Draw 3.58 | Korona Kielce 4.92. Cracovia Krakow hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Cracovia Krakow are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cracovia Krakow if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.39 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 54%. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Cracovia Krakow 60% (last 10 home games) | Korona Kielce 70% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cracovia Krakow vs Korona Kielce | Competition: Ekstraklasa, matchday 7 | Venue: Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego • Kick-off: Saturday 2 September 2023 at 17:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cracovia Krakow 52% | Draw 28% | Korona Kielce 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% (Under 57%) | BTTS Yes 46% (No 54%) | xG Cracovia Krakow 1.52 / Korona Kielce 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Cracovia Krakow attack 1.086 / def 0.964 | Korona Kielce attack 0.968 / def 1.025 | league avg home 1.367 / away 0.927 • Poisson stance: Cracovia Krakow (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Cracovia Krakow xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Korona Kielce xG
46%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Cracovia Krakow vs Korona Kielce FAQs
What time does Cracovia Krakow vs Korona Kielce kick off?
Cracovia Krakow vs Korona Kielce kicked off at 17:30 UK time on Saturday 2 September 2023 at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What was the final score in Cracovia Krakow vs Korona Kielce?
Cracovia Krakow 0 - 0 Korona Kielce.
Where is Cracovia Krakow vs Korona Kielce being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What competition is Cracovia Krakow vs Korona Kielce part of?
Cracovia Krakow vs Korona Kielce is a Ekstraklasa fixture (matchday 7) (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Cracovia Krakow vs Korona Kielce?
Our statistical model gives Cracovia Krakow a 52% chance of winning, Korona Kielce a 20% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Cracovia Krakow the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cracovia Krakow vs Korona Kielce?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Cracovia Krakow and Korona Kielce will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (54%).
Will Cracovia Krakow vs Korona Kielce have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (57%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Cracovia Krakow's attacking strength (1.09x league average) is weighed against Korona Kielce's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.52. Flip it around — Korona Kielce's attack (0.97x) against Cracovia Krakow's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 0.86.
These ratings are built from Cracovia Krakow's last 39 games and Korona Kielce's last 39 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.4%), 0-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cracovia Krakow Win
52%
1.93
28%
3.58
20%
4.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
2 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Cracovia Krakow xG
Total xG
2.39
0.86
Korona Kielce xG
1.93
52%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
4.92
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
42%
2.38
22%
4.59
Win to Nil
22%
4.59
4%
22.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 7.9 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.0 | 12.1 | 5.2 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.6 | 9.2 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.4 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Cracovia Krakow vs Korona Kielce Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Cracovia Krakow vs Korona Kielce?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Cracovia Krakow and Korona Kielce expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Cracovia Krakow and 0.86 for Korona Kielce, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Cracovia Krakow vs Korona Kielce?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Cracovia Krakow come into this having played 39 games, going 14W 13D 12L for 1.41 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-D-D.
On the other side, Korona Kielce sit at 1.15 PPG from 39 outings (12W 9D 18L), a run that reads D-L-L-L-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.41 PPG for Cracovia Krakow against 1.15 for Korona Kielce. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Cracovia Krakow's home form reads 9W 6D 4L across their last 19 home games, a 1.74 PPG return.
Away from home, Korona Kielce have taken 0.74 points per game from their last 19 away games (3W 5D 11L). That's a step down from their 1.15 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Korona Kielce's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cracovia Krakow come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Cracovia Krakow are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Korona Kielce are on 1.10 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Defensively: Cracovia Krakow have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 39 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cracovia Krakow
Early Season
Korona Kielce
Early Season
Cracovia Krakow (Home) vs Korona Kielce (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Cracovia Krakow
Early Season
Korona Kielce
Early Season
❓ Cracovia Krakow vs Korona Kielce Form FAQs
What form are Cracovia Krakow and Korona Kielce in coming into this match?
Cracovia Krakow have gone 14W 13D 12L in their last 39 games (1.41 PPG), while Korona Kielce have gone 12W 9D 18L in their last 39 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cracovia Krakow at home or Korona Kielce away?
Cracovia Krakow's home record (1.74 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cracovia Krakow at home: 1.74 PPG; Korona Kielce away: 0.74 PPG.
Have Cracovia Krakow or Korona Kielce been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cracovia Krakow have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Korona Kielce in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 8 H2H matches between Cracovia Krakow and Korona Kielce, the earliest from July 2022. All of them came in Ekstraklasa. The most recent was on 23 May 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cracovia Krakow have gone 1W 3D 0L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Korona Kielce — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Cracovia Krakow
4
Draws
1
Korona Kielce
Recent Meetings
❓ Cracovia Krakow vs Korona Kielce H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Cracovia Krakow and Korona Kielce?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Cracovia Krakow have won 3, Korona Kielce have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Cracovia Krakow and Korona Kielce last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 23 May 2026: Cracovia Krakow 1-1 Korona Kielce.
Who has won more matches between Cracovia Krakow and Korona Kielce?
Cracovia Krakow have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Cracovia Krakow see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Korona Kielce are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cracovia Krakow 37%, Korona Kielce 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 32% (Cracovia Krakow) and 53% (Korona Kielce).
On the defensive side: Cracovia Krakow keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Cracovia Krakow have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cracovia Krakow home games / Korona Kielce away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Cracovia Krakow vs Korona Kielce Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Cracovia Krakow and Korona Kielce matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 37% of Cracovia Krakow's recent matches and 63% of Korona Kielce's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Cracovia Krakow and Korona Kielce matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Cracovia Krakow's recent games and 53% of Korona Kielce's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cracovia Krakow and Korona Kielce matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 58% of Cracovia Krakow's recent matches and 79% of Korona Kielce's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Cracovia Krakow's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego, Regular Season - 7, as Cracovia Krakow and Korona Kielce drew 0-0 in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cracovia Krakow 1.52 xG and Korona Kielce 0.86 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Cracovia Krakow fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Korona Kielce landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cracovia Krakow attack 1.09 / defence 0.96 against Korona Kielce attack 0.97 / defence 1.02, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cracovia Krakow 52% | Draw 28% | Korona Kielce 20%, with Cracovia Krakow to win its most likely call at 52%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cracovia Krakow 36%, Korona Kielce 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cracovia Krakow's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Korona Kielce's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cracovia Krakow 1.41 PPG, Korona Kielce 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Cracovia Krakow (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.37 scoring average — below par going forward. Korona Kielce (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.11 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.68 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.