Piast Gliwice 1-1 Legia Warszawa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Piast Gliwice at 39%, yet in-form Legia Warszawa provide a compelling counter-argument — this Piast Gliwice vs Legia Warszawa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Piast Gliwice and Legia Warszawa meet at Stadion Miejski in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 8. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 16 September 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Piast Gliwice's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 2W 6D 2L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: D W D D D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Piast Gliwice have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Piast Gliwice's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at Stadion Miejski this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Piast Gliwice are significantly better at Stadion Miejski than their overall form suggests.
Legia Warszawa have collected 2.20 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 7W 1D 2L. Last five: W W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Legia Warszawa have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Legia Warszawa have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Legia Warszawa are 1.00 PPG clear of Piast Gliwice in recent Ekstraklasa fixtures (2.20 vs 1.20). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Piast Gliwice lead 2W to 2W over the last 4 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Feb 2023, ended 0–1 with Legia Warszawa winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Piast Gliwice half-time and goal-timing data (39 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Legia Warszawa half-time and goal-timing data (39 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Piast Gliwice 46% versus Legia Warszawa 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Piast Gliwice 28% | Legia Warszawa 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Piast Gliwice 1.07 xG and Legia Warszawa 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Piast Gliwice attack 0.839 / defence 0.974 | Legia Warszawa attack 0.988 / defence 0.947. League average goals — home 1.347 / away 0.907. Data: 41 Piast Gliwice games / 39 Legia Warszawa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Piast Gliwice 39% | Draw 33% | Legia Warszawa 28%. Fair-value odds: Piast Gliwice 2.56 | Draw 3.03 | Legia Warszawa 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.94. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.94 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Piast Gliwice at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Legia Warszawa (2.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Piast Gliwice if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.94 combined xG gives a 31% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 39%. Form rates corroborate: Piast Gliwice 50% | Legia Warszawa 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Piast Gliwice vs Legia Warszawa | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Stadion Miejski • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Sep 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Piast Gliwice 39% | Draw 33% | Legia Warszawa 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 39% | xG Piast Gliwice 1.07 / Legia Warszawa 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Piast Gliwice attack 0.839 / def 0.974 | Legia Warszawa attack 0.988 / def 0.947 | league avg home 1.347 / away 0.907 • Poisson stance: Piast Gliwice (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Piast Gliwice xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Legia Warszawa xG
39%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Piast Gliwice vs Legia Warszawa kick off?
Piast Gliwice vs Legia Warszawa kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 16 September 2023 at Stadion Miejski.
What was the final score in Piast Gliwice vs Legia Warszawa?
Piast Gliwice 1 - 1 Legia Warszawa.
Where is Piast Gliwice vs Legia Warszawa being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski.
What competition is Piast Gliwice vs Legia Warszawa part of?
Piast Gliwice vs Legia Warszawa is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Piast Gliwice vs Legia Warszawa?
Our statistical model gives Piast Gliwice a 39% chance of winning, Legia Warszawa a 28% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Piast Gliwice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Piast Gliwice vs Legia Warszawa?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Piast Gliwice and Legia Warszawa will score (BTTS).
Will Piast Gliwice vs Legia Warszawa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Piast Gliwice and Legia Warszawa?
Record (4 meetings): Piast Gliwice 2W | Draws 0 | Legia Warszawa 2W.
What form are Piast Gliwice and Legia Warszawa in?
Piast Gliwice (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-D-D-D. Legia Warszawa (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Piast Gliwice's attack at 0.84x the league average against Legia Warszawa's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 1.07 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Legia Warszawa's attack (0.99x) against Piast Gliwice's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 0.87.
These ratings are built from 41/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 1-0 (13.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Piast Gliwice Win
39%
2.59
33%
3.00
28%
3.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.3%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.3%
Draw
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Piast Gliwice xG
Total xG
1.94
0.87
Legia Warszawa xG
2.59
39%
Home win
3.00
33%
Draw
3.55
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.54
61%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
42%
2.40
34%
2.92
Win to Nil
16%
6.21
10%
10.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.3 | 12.5 | 5.5 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.3 | 13.4 | 5.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 7.2 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.9 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Piast Gliwice vs Legia Warszawa?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.0%.
How many goals are Piast Gliwice and Legia Warszawa expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Piast Gliwice and 0.87 for Legia Warszawa, a combined total of 1.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Piast Gliwice vs Legia Warszawa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 39 outings, Piast Gliwice have picked up 1.49 PPG on a 15W 13D 11L record — D-W-D-D-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Piast Gliwice, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Legia Warszawa's form line: 23W 10D 6L from 39 games, 2.03 PPG, last five W-W-D-W-W. It's still early in the season for Legia Warszawa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Legia Warszawa are the form team by 0.54 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Piast Gliwice.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Piast Gliwice have posted 1.28 PPG from 18 outings (6W 5D 7L).
On the road, Legia Warszawa have gone 7W 5D 6L from 18 away games — 1.44 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 2.03 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Legia Warszawa's season.
Attack vs Defence
Piast Gliwice are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 0.87 conceded per game recently; Legia Warszawa are on 1.74 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Legia Warszawa in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 39 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Piast Gliwice
Early Season
Legia Warszawa
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Piast Gliwice and Legia Warszawa in coming into this match?
Piast Gliwice have gone 15W 13D 11L in their last 39 games (1.49 PPG), while Legia Warszawa have gone 23W 10D 6L in their last 39 (2.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Piast Gliwice at home or Legia Warszawa away?
Legia Warszawa's away record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Piast Gliwice at home: 1.28 PPG; Legia Warszawa away: 1.44 PPG.
Have Piast Gliwice or Legia Warszawa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Piast Gliwice have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Legia Warszawa in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 14 December 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Piast Gliwice have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Piast Gliwice won 4-1 on 24 Oct 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Piast Gliwice have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Legia Warszawa — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Piast Gliwice
1
Draws
3
Legia Warszawa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Piast Gliwice and Legia Warszawa?
From 10 meetings on record, Piast Gliwice have won 6, Legia Warszawa have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Piast Gliwice and Legia Warszawa last play each other?
They last met on 14 December 2025, when Legia Warszawa 0-1 Piast Gliwice.
Who has won more matches between Piast Gliwice and Legia Warszawa?
Piast Gliwice have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Piast Gliwice see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Legia Warszawa see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Piast Gliwice 56%, Legia Warszawa 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Piast Gliwice) and 44% (Legia Warszawa).
On the defensive side: Legia Warszawa in 33%; Piast Gliwice have failed to score in 33% of games; Legia Warszawa in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Piast Gliwice home games / Legia Warszawa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Piast Gliwice play Legia Warszawa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Piast Gliwice's recent matches and 44% of Legia Warszawa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Piast Gliwice vs Legia Warszawa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Piast Gliwice's recent games and 44% of Legia Warszawa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Piast Gliwice and Legia Warszawa share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Piast Gliwice and Legia Warszawa finished level at 1-1 at Stadion Miejski, Regular Season - 8, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Piast Gliwice 1.07 xG and Legia Warszawa 0.87 xG, a combined 1.94. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Piast Gliwice attack 0.84 / defence 0.97 against Legia Warszawa attack 0.99 / defence 0.95, drawn from 41/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Piast Gliwice 39% | Draw 33% | Legia Warszawa 28%, with Piast Gliwice to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Piast Gliwice 28%, Legia Warszawa 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Piast Gliwice's trading profile (39 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Legia Warszawa's trading profile (39 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Legia Warszawa arrived the stronger side — 2.03 PPG against 1.49. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.