Jagiellonia 3-2 Radomiak Radom – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jagiellonia at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jagiellonia vs Radomiak Radom fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Radomiak Radom make the trip to Stadion Miejski to face Jagiellonia in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 8. The match kicks off on Sunday 17 September 2023 at 11:30 UTC.
Current Form
Jagiellonia's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Jagiellonia have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Jagiellonia have posted 6W 3D 1L at Stadion Miejski — 2.10 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Jagiellonia are significantly better at Stadion Miejski than their overall form suggests.
Radomiak Radom have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: L W W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Radomiak Radom have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Radomiak Radom's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 1.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Jagiellonia lead 0W to 1W over the last 4 encounters, with 3 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Feb 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Jagiellonia half-time and goal-timing data (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games).
Radomiak Radom half-time and goal-timing data (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jagiellonia 70% versus Radomiak Radom 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jagiellonia 52% | Radomiak Radom 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jagiellonia 1.80 xG and Radomiak Radom 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jagiellonia attack 1.437 / defence 1.052 | Radomiak Radom attack 1.018 / defence 0.930. League average goals — home 1.346 / away 0.909. Jagiellonia carry an above-average attack strength of 1.437 — their λ of 1.80 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 40 Jagiellonia games / 41 Radomiak Radom games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jagiellonia 56% | Draw 26% | Radomiak Radom 19%. Fair-value odds: Jagiellonia 1.79 | Draw 3.85 | Radomiak Radom 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Jagiellonia (56%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Jagiellonia are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.77 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: Jagiellonia 90% | Radomiak Radom 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jagiellonia vs Radomiak Radom | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Stadion Miejski • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Sep 2023, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jagiellonia 56% | Draw 26% | Radomiak Radom 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 53% | xG Jagiellonia 1.80 / Radomiak Radom 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Jagiellonia attack 1.437 / def 1.052 | Radomiak Radom attack 1.018 / def 0.930 | league avg home 1.346 / away 0.909 • Poisson stance: Jagiellonia (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.80
Jagiellonia xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Radomiak Radom xG
53%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jagiellonia vs Radomiak Radom kick off?
Jagiellonia vs Radomiak Radom kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 17 September 2023 at Stadion Miejski.
What was the final score in Jagiellonia vs Radomiak Radom?
Jagiellonia 3 - 2 Radomiak Radom.
Where is Jagiellonia vs Radomiak Radom being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski.
What competition is Jagiellonia vs Radomiak Radom part of?
Jagiellonia vs Radomiak Radom is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Jagiellonia vs Radomiak Radom?
Our statistical model gives Jagiellonia a 56% chance of winning, Radomiak Radom a 19% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Jagiellonia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jagiellonia vs Radomiak Radom?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Jagiellonia and Radomiak Radom will score (BTTS).
Will Jagiellonia vs Radomiak Radom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jagiellonia and Radomiak Radom?
Record (4 meetings): Jagiellonia 0W | Draws 3 | Radomiak Radom 1W.
What form are Jagiellonia and Radomiak Radom in?
Jagiellonia (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-L. Radomiak Radom (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Jagiellonia's attacking strength (1.44x league average) is weighed against Radomiak Radom's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.80. Flip it around — Radomiak Radom's attack (1.02x) against Jagiellonia's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 0.97.
These ratings are built from 40/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.4%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.1%), 2-1 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jagiellonia Win
56%
1.80
26%
3.91
19%
5.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
2 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.80
Jagiellonia xG
Total xG
2.77
0.97
Radomiak Radom xG
1.80
56%
Home win
3.91
26%
Draw
5.28
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
38%
2.65
17%
6.04
Win to Nil
21%
4.77
3%
31.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 6.1 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.3 | 11.0 | 5.3 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 9.8 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.1 | 5.9 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jagiellonia vs Radomiak Radom?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Jagiellonia and Radomiak Radom expected to score?
The model projects 1.80 expected goals for Jagiellonia and 0.97 for Radomiak Radom, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Jagiellonia vs Radomiak Radom?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Jagiellonia come into this having played 40 games, going 13W 14D 13L for 1.32 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-L. It's still early in the season for Jagiellonia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Radomiak Radom sit at 1.32 PPG from 40 outings (15W 8D 17L), a run that reads L-W-W-L-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Radomiak Radom, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.32 PPG for Jagiellonia against 1.32 for Radomiak Radom. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Jagiellonia's home form reads 11W 4D 5L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.85 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.32 PPG overall — Jagiellonia are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Radomiak Radom have taken 1.50 points per game from 20 outings (9W 3D 8L).
Attack vs Defence
Jagiellonia are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Radomiak Radom are on 1.02 scored and 1.20 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jagiellonia have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games.
Last 40 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jagiellonia
Early Season
Radomiak Radom
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jagiellonia and Radomiak Radom in coming into this match?
Jagiellonia have gone 13W 14D 13L in their last 40 games (1.32 PPG), while Radomiak Radom have gone 15W 8D 17L in their last 40 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jagiellonia at home or Radomiak Radom away?
Jagiellonia's home record (1.85 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jagiellonia at home: 1.85 PPG; Radomiak Radom away: 1.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 22 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Jagiellonia won 5-0 on 2 Feb 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Jagiellonia have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Radomiak Radom — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Jagiellonia
4
Draws
1
Radomiak Radom
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jagiellonia and Radomiak Radom?
From 10 meetings on record, Jagiellonia have won 5, Radomiak Radom have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Jagiellonia and Radomiak Radom last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2026, when Jagiellonia 1-1 Radomiak Radom.
Who has won more matches between Jagiellonia and Radomiak Radom?
Jagiellonia have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Jagiellonia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Radomiak Radom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jagiellonia 75%, Radomiak Radom 35% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 65% (Jagiellonia) and 45% (Radomiak Radom). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 15% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Radomiak Radom in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jagiellonia home games / Radomiak Radom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jagiellonia play Radomiak Radom?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Jagiellonia's games and 35% of Radomiak Radom's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jagiellonia vs Radomiak Radom usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Jagiellonia's matches and 45% of Radomiak Radom's.
Do Jagiellonia and Radomiak Radom tend to score early?
Jagiellonia have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Radomiak Radom in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Jagiellonia edge out Radomiak Radom 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jagiellonia beat Radomiak Radom 3-2 at Stadion Miejski, Regular Season - 8, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jagiellonia 1.80 xG and Radomiak Radom 0.97 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Jagiellonia beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Radomiak Radom outscored their 0.97 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jagiellonia attack 1.44 / defence 1.05 against Radomiak Radom attack 1.02 / defence 0.93, drawn from 40/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jagiellonia 56% | Draw 26% | Radomiak Radom 19%, with Jagiellonia to win its most likely call at 56%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jagiellonia 52%, Radomiak Radom 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jagiellonia's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Radomiak Radom's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jagiellonia 1.32 PPG, Radomiak Radom 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jagiellonia win broke the near-deadlock. Jagiellonia (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm. Radomiak Radom (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.