ŁKS Łódź 1-1 Legia Warszawa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Legia Warszawa at 62% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this ŁKS Łódź vs Legia Warszawa encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
ŁKS Łódź host Legia Warszawa at Stadion Miejski LKS Lodz in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 10 December 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
ŁKS Łódź — All Games: 0W 2D 8L from 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season, averaging 0.20 points per game. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 2.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. This season is still relatively young for ŁKS Łódź, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, ŁKS Łódź have posted 2W 2D 4L at Stadion Miejski LKS Lodz — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.12 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.20 — ŁKS Łódź are significantly better at Stadion Miejski LKS Lodz than their overall form suggests.
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Legia Warszawa have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Legia Warszawa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Legia Warszawa have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Legia Warszawa — 1.20 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.40 vs 0.20). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for ŁKS Łódź, 1 for Legia Warszawa and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 21 Jul 2023, ended 0–3 with Legia Warszawa winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
ŁKS Łódź trading profile (16 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 56% of games.
Legia Warszawa trading profile (16 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — ŁKS Łódź 38% versus Legia Warszawa 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (ŁKS Łódź 56% | Legia Warszawa 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects ŁKS Łódź 1.08 xG and Legia Warszawa 2.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: ŁKS Łódź attack 0.783 / defence 1.569 | Legia Warszawa attack 1.135 / defence 0.994. League average goals — home 1.385 / away 1.258. ŁKS Łódź's attack strength of 0.783 is below the league average — the 1.08 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 16 ŁKS Łódź games / 50 Legia Warszawa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: ŁKS Łódź 16% | Draw 22% | Legia Warszawa 62%. Fair-value odds: ŁKS Łódź 6.25 | Draw 4.55 | Legia Warszawa 1.61. The model has a clear lean to Legia Warszawa (62%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.32. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.32 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.08 / 2.24) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Legia Warszawa as the most likely outcome at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.32 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: ŁKS Łódź 38% | Legia Warszawa 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: ŁKS Łódź vs Legia Warszawa | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Stadion Miejski LKS Lodz • Kick-off: Sunday 10 Dec 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: ŁKS Łódź 16% | Draw 22% | Legia Warszawa 62% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 60% | xG ŁKS Łódź 1.08 / Legia Warszawa 2.24 • Poisson strength factors: ŁKS Łódź attack 0.783 / def 1.569 | Legia Warszawa attack 1.135 / def 0.994 | league avg home 1.385 / away 1.258 • Poisson stance: Legia Warszawa (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
ŁKS Łódź xG
Expected Goals
2.24
Legia Warszawa xG
60%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does ŁKS Łódź vs Legia Warszawa kick off?
ŁKS Łódź vs Legia Warszawa kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 10 December 2023 at Stadion Miejski LKS Lodz.
What was the final score in ŁKS Łódź vs Legia Warszawa?
ŁKS Łódź 1 - 1 Legia Warszawa.
Where is ŁKS Łódź vs Legia Warszawa being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski LKS Lodz.
What competition is ŁKS Łódź vs Legia Warszawa part of?
ŁKS Łódź vs Legia Warszawa is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win ŁKS Łódź vs Legia Warszawa?
Our statistical model gives ŁKS Łódź a 16% chance of winning, Legia Warszawa a 62% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Legia Warszawa the favourite.
Will both teams score in ŁKS Łódź vs Legia Warszawa?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both ŁKS Łódź and Legia Warszawa will score (BTTS).
Will ŁKS Łódź vs Legia Warszawa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between ŁKS Łódź and Legia Warszawa?
Record (1 meetings): ŁKS Łódź 0W | Draws 0 | Legia Warszawa 1W.
What form are ŁKS Łódź and Legia Warszawa in?
ŁKS Łódź (all comps): 0W-2D-8L in 10 | 0.20 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. Legia Warszawa (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
ŁKS Łódź's attacking strength (0.78x league average) is weighed against Legia Warszawa's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.08. The same calculation in reverse, Legia Warszawa's attack versus ŁKS Łódź's defence, projects 2.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 16/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (9.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Legia Warszawa Win
16%
6.32
22%
4.58
62%
1.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
9.1%
Away win
1 – 1
8.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
ŁKS Łódź xG
Total xG
3.32
2.24
Legia Warszawa xG
6.32
16%
Home win
4.58
22%
Draw
1.60
62%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.52
Clean Sheet
11%
9.40
34%
2.94
Win to Nil
2%
59.40
21%
4.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 8.1 | 9.1 | 6.8 | 3.8 | 1.7 |
| 1 | 3.9 | 8.7 | 9.8 | 7.3 | 4.1 | 1.8 |
| 2 | 2.1 | 4.7 | 5.3 | 3.9 | 2.2 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for ŁKS Łódź vs Legia Warszawa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.9%.
How many goals are ŁKS Łódź and Legia Warszawa expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for ŁKS Łódź and 2.24 for Legia Warszawa, a combined total of 3.32.
How confident is the prediction model for ŁKS Łódź vs Legia Warszawa?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 16 outings, ŁKS Łódź have picked up 0.50 PPG on a 2W 2D 12L record — L-L-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for ŁKS Łódź is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Legia Warszawa's form line: 8W 4D 4L from 16 games, 1.75 PPG, last five L-W-D-D-W. The sample for Legia Warszawa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Legia Warszawa are the form team by 1.25 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against ŁKS Łódź.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, ŁKS Łódź have posted 0.71 PPG from 7 outings (1W 2D 4L).
On the road, Legia Warszawa have gone 3W 2D 2L from 7 away games — 1.57 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Legia Warszawa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
ŁKS Łódź are averaging 0.69 goals scored and 2.12 conceded per game recently; Legia Warszawa are on 1.62 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Defensively: Legia Warszawa in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 16 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
ŁKS Łódź
Blended
Legia Warszawa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are ŁKS Łódź and Legia Warszawa in coming into this match?
ŁKS Łódź have gone 2W 2D 12L in their last 16 games (0.50 PPG), while Legia Warszawa have gone 8W 4D 4L in their last 16 (1.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — ŁKS Łódź at home or Legia Warszawa away?
Legia Warszawa's away record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — ŁKS Łódź at home: 0.71 PPG; Legia Warszawa away: 1.57 PPG.
Have ŁKS Łódź or Legia Warszawa been keeping clean sheets recently?
ŁKS Łódź have kept a clean sheet in 6% of their recent games, Legia Warszawa in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between ŁKS Łódź and Legia Warszawa runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 December 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
ŁKS Łódź
1
Draws
1
Legia Warszawa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between ŁKS Łódź and Legia Warszawa?
From 2 meetings on record, ŁKS Łódź have won 0, Legia Warszawa have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did ŁKS Łódź and Legia Warszawa last play each other?
They last met on 10 December 2023, when ŁKS Łódź 1-1 Legia Warszawa.
Who has won more matches between ŁKS Łódź and Legia Warszawa?
Legia Warszawa have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
ŁKS Łódź are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Legia Warszawa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — ŁKS Łódź 29%, Legia Warszawa 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (ŁKS Łódź) and 43% (Legia Warszawa).
On the defensive side: ŁKS Łódź have failed to score in 57% of games; Legia Warszawa in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = ŁKS Łódź home games / Legia Warszawa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when ŁKS Łódź play Legia Warszawa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 29% of ŁKS Łódź's recent matches and 43% of Legia Warszawa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is ŁKS Łódź vs Legia Warszawa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of ŁKS Łódź's recent games and 43% of Legia Warszawa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do ŁKS Łódź and Legia Warszawa tend to score early?
ŁKS Łódź have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Legia Warszawa in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
ŁKS Łódź and Legia Warszawa share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
ŁKS Łódź and Legia Warszawa finished level at 1-1 at Stadion Miejski LKS Lodz, Regular Season - 18, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting ŁKS Łódź 1.08 xG and Legia Warszawa 2.24 xG, a combined 3.32. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Legia Warszawa landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of ŁKS Łódź attack 0.78 / defence 1.57 against Legia Warszawa attack 1.14 / defence 0.99, drawn from 16/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it ŁKS Łódź 16% | Draw 22% | Legia Warszawa 62%, with Legia Warszawa to win its most likely call at 62%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (ŁKS Łódź 56%, Legia Warszawa 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
ŁKS Łódź's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did.
Legia Warszawa's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Legia Warszawa arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 0.50. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. ŁKS Łódź (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.29 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.