Bodo/Glimt 4-2 Haugesund – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Bodo/Glimt (65%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Bodo/Glimt face Haugesund.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Bodo/Glimt host Haugesund at Aspmyra Stadion in Eliteserien (matchday 17). Kick-off is Saturday 3 August 2024 at 18:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Bodo/Glimt — last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: W W L W D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Bodo/Glimt's home record over their last 10 home games: 7W 3D 0L (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.80 — Bodo/Glimt are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, Haugesund have recorded 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Haugesund's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across their last 10 road games (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Bodo/Glimt are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 0.70 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 1.10). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The head-to-head sample comes down firmly in favour of Bodo/Glimt: 5 wins from 7 H2H matches against 0 for Haugesund, with 2 draws.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 2 Jun 2024, ended Bodo/Glimt 1–0 Haugesund — a Bodo/Glimt win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Bodo/Glimt and goals — 5 wins from 7 H2H matches and an average of 3.0 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
In-Play Profile
Bodo/Glimt in-play tendencies (last 45 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 54%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 51%.
Haugesund in-play tendencies (last 45 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bodo/Glimt 62% versus Haugesund 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bodo/Glimt 64% | Haugesund 51%). Note also that Haugesund surrender HT leads in 36% of cases while Bodo/Glimt recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 54% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bodo/Glimt 2.47 xG and Haugesund 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bodo/Glimt attack 1.442 / defence 0.823 | Haugesund attack 1.060 / defence 1.201. League average goals — home 1.427 / away 1.361. Bodo/Glimt carry an above-average attack rating of 1.442 — their 2.47 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Haugesund's defence rating of 1.201 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Bodo/Glimt's projected output up. Data: built from Bodo/Glimt's last 47 games and Haugesund's last 45.
Result probabilities: Bodo/Glimt 65% | Draw 18% | Haugesund 16%. Fair-value odds: Bodo/Glimt 1.53 | Draw 5.44 | Haugesund 6.10. The model has a clear lean to Bodo/Glimt (65%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS Yes probability 64% | Total xG 3.66. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.66 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% — both xG figures (2.47 / 1.19) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bodo/Glimt are the pick at 65% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.66 combined xG gives a 71% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Bodo/Glimt's last 10 home games and Haugesund's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 7 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Bodo/Glimt 50% (last 10 home games) | Haugesund 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bodo/Glimt vs Haugesund | Competition: Eliteserien, matchday 17 | Venue: Aspmyra Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 3 August 2024 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bodo/Glimt 65% | Draw 18% | Haugesund 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% (Under 29%) | BTTS Yes 64% (No 36%) | xG Bodo/Glimt 2.47 / Haugesund 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Bodo/Glimt attack 1.442 / def 0.823 | Haugesund attack 1.060 / def 1.201 | league avg home 1.427 / away 1.361 • Poisson stance: Bodo/Glimt (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.47
Bodo/Glimt xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Haugesund xG
64%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Bodo/Glimt vs Haugesund FAQs
What time does Bodo/Glimt vs Haugesund kick off?
Bodo/Glimt vs Haugesund kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Saturday 3 August 2024 at Aspmyra Stadion.
What was the final score in Bodo/Glimt vs Haugesund?
Bodo/Glimt 4 - 2 Haugesund.
Where is Bodo/Glimt vs Haugesund being played?
The match is being played at Aspmyra Stadion.
What competition is Bodo/Glimt vs Haugesund part of?
Bodo/Glimt vs Haugesund is a Eliteserien fixture (matchday 17) (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Bodo/Glimt vs Haugesund?
Our statistical model gives Bodo/Glimt a 65% chance of winning, Haugesund a 16% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Bodo/Glimt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bodo/Glimt vs Haugesund?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Bodo/Glimt and Haugesund will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Bodo/Glimt vs Haugesund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Bodo/Glimt's attack rating (1.44) and Haugesund's defence rating (1.20), the model arrives at 2.47 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Haugesund's attack versus Bodo/Glimt's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Bodo/Glimt's last 47 games and Haugesund's last 45 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (8.5%), 2-0 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bodo/Glimt Win
65%
1.53
18%
5.44
16%
6.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
7.9%
Home win
3 – 1
7.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.47
Bodo/Glimt xG
Total xG
3.66
1.19
Haugesund xG
1.53
65%
Home win
5.44
18%
Draw
6.10
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
50%
Over 3.5
2.00
50%
Under 3.5
2.00
31%
Over 4.5
3.23
69%
Under 4.5
1.45
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.77
Clean Sheet
30%
3.28
8%
11.86
Win to Nil
20%
5.03
1%
72.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.6 | 3.1 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 7.6 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.3 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.5 | 7.7 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.0 | 4.8 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Bodo/Glimt vs Haugesund Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Bodo/Glimt vs Haugesund?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.3%.
How many goals are Bodo/Glimt and Haugesund expected to score?
The model projects 2.47 expected goals for Bodo/Glimt and 1.19 for Haugesund, a combined total of 3.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Bodo/Glimt vs Haugesund?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Bodo/Glimt's recent record stands at 31W 8D 6L from 45 games, a 2.24 PPG return, with W-W-L-W-D in the last five.
Haugesund, meanwhile, have gone 14W 8D 23L across 45 games — 1.11 PPG, with L-L-D-W-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Bodo/Glimt by 1.13 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Haugesund heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Bodo/Glimt have managed 16W 5D 1L from their last 22 home games — 2.41 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Haugesund's away record stands at 4W 6D 12L across their last 22 away games, a 0.82 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bodo/Glimt come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Bodo/Glimt are averaging 2.42 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Haugesund are on 1.11 scored and 1.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bodo/Glimt have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 45 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bodo/Glimt
Blended
Haugesund
Blended
Bodo/Glimt (Home) vs Haugesund (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Bodo/Glimt
Blended
Haugesund
Blended
❓ Bodo/Glimt vs Haugesund Form FAQs
What form are Bodo/Glimt and Haugesund in coming into this match?
Bodo/Glimt have gone 31W 8D 6L in their last 45 games (2.24 PPG), while Haugesund have gone 14W 8D 23L in their last 45 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bodo/Glimt at home or Haugesund away?
Bodo/Glimt's home record (2.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bodo/Glimt at home: 2.41 PPG; Haugesund away: 0.82 PPG.
Have Bodo/Glimt or Haugesund been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bodo/Glimt have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Haugesund in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to May 2021. All of them came in Eliteserien. The most recent in our data was on 5 October 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Bodo/Glimt have won the most recent 6 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 1 Jun 2025, when Bodo/Glimt won Haugesund 0-4 Bodo/Glimt.
Bodo/Glimt's record when hosting Haugesund specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Bodo/Glimt
2
Draws
0
Haugesund
Recent Meetings
❓ Bodo/Glimt vs Haugesund H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Bodo/Glimt and Haugesund?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Bodo/Glimt have won 8, Haugesund have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Bodo/Glimt and Haugesund last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 5 October 2025: Bodo/Glimt 2-0 Haugesund.
Who has won more matches between Bodo/Glimt and Haugesund?
Bodo/Glimt have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bodo/Glimt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 75% of those situations.
Haugesund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 43% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bodo/Glimt 59%, Haugesund 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Bodo/Glimt) and 50% (Haugesund).
On the defensive side: Bodo/Glimt keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Haugesund in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bodo/Glimt home games / Haugesund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Bodo/Glimt vs Haugesund Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Bodo/Glimt and Haugesund matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Bodo/Glimt's recent matches and 50% of Haugesund's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Bodo/Glimt and Haugesund matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of Bodo/Glimt's recent games and 50% of Haugesund's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bodo/Glimt and Haugesund matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 82% of Bodo/Glimt's recent matches and 68% of Haugesund's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bodo/Glimt cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Haugesund.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bodo/Glimt beat Haugesund 4-2 at Aspmyra Stadion, Regular Season - 17, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bodo/Glimt 2.47 xG and Haugesund 1.19 xG, a combined 3.66. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Bodo/Glimt beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Haugesund outscored their 1.19 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bodo/Glimt attack 1.44 / defence 0.82 against Haugesund attack 1.06 / defence 1.20, drawn from 47/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bodo/Glimt 65% | Draw 18% | Haugesund 16%, with Bodo/Glimt to win its most likely call at 65%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 50% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bodo/Glimt 64%, Haugesund 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bodo/Glimt's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Haugesund's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Bodo/Glimt arrived the stronger side — 2.24 PPG against 1.11. Form held, and they took the win. Bodo/Glimt (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.41 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Haugesund (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.91 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.45 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.