Ham-Kam 3-3 Viking – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Viking (43%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Ham-Kam face Viking.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Briskeby Arena plays host to Ham-Kam versus Viking in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off: Sunday 4 August 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Ham-Kam have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: L W D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Ham-Kam, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ham-Kam's home record at Briskeby Arena: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Eliteserien appearances (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.80 lags behind their overall 1.50 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Briskeby Arena this season.
Viking's overall Eliteserien record this term: 7W 1D 2L from 10 games (2.20 PPG). Last five: W W W L W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.00. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Viking, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Viking have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Viking are the stronger side — 0.70 PPG clear of the hosts (2.20 vs 1.50). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — Ham-Kam have seen both teams score in just 20% of their matches, Viking in only 30%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Ham-Kam 1W, Viking 3W, 1D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.2 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 26 May 2024, ended 0–3 with Viking winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Ham-Kam half-time and goal-timing data (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Viking half-time and goal-timing data (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ham-Kam 46% versus Viking 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ham-Kam 52% | Viking 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ham-Kam 0.88 xG and Viking 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ham-Kam attack 0.686 / defence 0.864 | Viking attack 1.021 / defence 0.886. League average goals — home 1.443 / away 1.371. Ham-Kam's attack strength of 0.686 is below the league average — the 0.88 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 46 Ham-Kam games / 46 Viking games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ham-Kam 26% | Draw 30% | Viking 43%. Fair-value odds: Ham-Kam 3.85 | Draw 3.33 | Viking 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.09. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.09 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Viking as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Viking if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.09 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 35% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 4.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 41% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Ham-Kam 20% | Viking 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ham-Kam vs Viking | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Briskeby Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 4 Aug 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ham-Kam 26% | Draw 30% | Viking 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 41% | xG Ham-Kam 0.88 / Viking 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Ham-Kam attack 0.686 / def 0.864 | Viking attack 1.021 / def 0.886 | league avg home 1.443 / away 1.371 • Poisson stance: Viking (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.88
Ham-Kam xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Viking xG
41%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ham-Kam vs Viking kick off?
Ham-Kam vs Viking kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 4 August 2024 at Briskeby Arena.
What was the final score in Ham-Kam vs Viking?
Ham-Kam 3 - 3 Viking.
Where is Ham-Kam vs Viking being played?
The match is being played at Briskeby Arena.
What competition is Ham-Kam vs Viking part of?
Ham-Kam vs Viking is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Ham-Kam vs Viking?
Our statistical model gives Ham-Kam a 26% chance of winning, Viking a 43% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Viking the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ham-Kam vs Viking?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Ham-Kam and Viking will score (BTTS).
Will Ham-Kam vs Viking have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ham-Kam and Viking?
Record (5 meetings): Ham-Kam 1W | Draws 1 | Viking 3W.
What form are Ham-Kam and Viking in?
Ham-Kam (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-D-W-L. Viking (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Ham-Kam's attacking strength (0.69x league average) is weighed against Viking's defensive record (0.89x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.88. Flip it around — Viking's attack (1.02x) against Ham-Kam's defence (0.86x) — and the away total comes out at 1.21.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.1%), 0-1 (13.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Viking Win
26%
3.81
30%
3.29
43%
2.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
12.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.88
Ham-Kam xG
Total xG
2.09
1.21
Viking xG
3.81
26%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
2.31
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.41
59%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
30%
3.35
42%
2.40
Win to Nil
8%
12.77
18%
5.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.4 | 15.0 | 9.1 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 13.2 | 8.0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 5.8 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ham-Kam vs Viking?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Ham-Kam and Viking expected to score?
The model projects 0.88 expected goals for Ham-Kam and 1.21 for Viking, a combined total of 2.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Ham-Kam vs Viking?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 46 outings, Ham-Kam have picked up 1.11 PPG on a 14W 9D 23L record — L-W-D-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Ham-Kam is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Viking's form line: 27W 8D 11L from 46 games, 1.93 PPG, last five W-W-W-L-W. The sample for Viking is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Viking are the form team by 0.82 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Ham-Kam.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Ham-Kam have posted 1.18 PPG from 22 outings (7W 5D 10L).
On the road, Viking have gone 11W 4D 7L from 22 away games — 1.68 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Viking come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Ham-Kam are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Viking are on 1.91 scored and 1.41 conceded.
Last 46 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ham-Kam
Blended
Viking
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ham-Kam and Viking in coming into this match?
Ham-Kam have gone 14W 9D 23L in their last 46 games (1.11 PPG), while Viking have gone 27W 8D 11L in their last 46 (1.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ham-Kam at home or Viking away?
Viking's away record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ham-Kam at home: 1.18 PPG; Viking away: 1.68 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 9 times since May 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Viking won 7-3 on 30 Apr 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ham-Kam have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Viking — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Ham-Kam
2
Draws
5
Viking
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ham-Kam and Viking?
From 9 meetings on record, Ham-Kam have won 2, Viking have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ham-Kam and Viking last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when Ham-Kam 2-1 Viking.
Who has won more matches between Ham-Kam and Viking?
Viking have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Ham-Kam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Viking are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ham-Kam 32%, Viking 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Ham-Kam) and 54% (Viking).
On the defensive side: Ham-Kam keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Ham-Kam have failed to score in 46% of games; Viking in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ham-Kam home games / Viking away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ham-Kam play Viking?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 32% of Ham-Kam's recent matches and 46% of Viking's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ham-Kam vs Viking usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Ham-Kam's recent games and 54% of Viking's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ham-Kam and Viking tend to score early?
Ham-Kam have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Viking in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ham-Kam and Viking share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Briskeby Arena, Regular Season - 17, as Ham-Kam and Viking drew 3-3 in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ham-Kam 0.88 xG and Viking 1.21 xG, a combined 2.09. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Ham-Kam beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Viking outscored their 1.21 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ham-Kam attack 0.69 / defence 0.86 against Viking attack 1.02 / defence 0.89, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ham-Kam 26% | Draw 30% | Viking 43%, with Viking to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ham-Kam 52%, Viking 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ham-Kam's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Viking's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Viking arrived the stronger side — 1.93 PPG against 1.11. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Ham-Kam (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.32 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Viking (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.27 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.