KFUM Oslo 1-1 Bodo/Glimt – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Bodo/Glimt at 65% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this KFUM Oslo vs Bodo/Glimt encounter.

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Analysis

Bodo/Glimt make the trip to KFUM Arena to face KFUM Oslo in Eliteserien (matchday 16). The match kicks off on Saturday 27 July 2024 at 16:00 UK time.

Form

KFUM Oslo (all games): 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D L L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

At home, KFUM Oslo have gone 0W 4D 3L in their last 7 home games (0.57 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 71% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.57 lags behind their overall 1.50 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.

Bodo/Glimt have collected 2.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Bodo/Glimt away from home: 7W 0D 3L from their last 10 away games — 2.10 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.40 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.

The travelling side arrive in better shape. Bodo/Glimt are 0.50 PPG clear of KFUM Oslo over their recent games (2.00 vs 1.50). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 1 H2H match in our data, the wins are level at 0 apiece, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 1 H2H match in our data have been high-scoring — 4.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 24 May 2024, ended KFUM Oslo 2–2 Bodo/Glimt — a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading

KFUM Oslo half-time and goal-timing data (last 15 games, 7 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 57% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 4 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.

Bodo/Glimt half-time and goal-timing data (last 15 games, 7 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 86% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — KFUM Oslo 73% and Bodo/Glimt 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (KFUM Oslo 60% | Bodo/Glimt 60%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects KFUM Oslo 0.99 xG and Bodo/Glimt 2.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: KFUM Oslo attack 0.796 / defence 1.298 | Bodo/Glimt attack 1.239 / defence 0.885. League average goals — home 1.405 / away 1.389. KFUM Oslo's attack rating of 0.796 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.99. Bodo/Glimt have an above-average attack rating of 1.239, which lifts their away xG to 2.23. KFUM Oslo's defence rating of 1.298 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Bodo/Glimt's projected output up. Data: built from KFUM Oslo's last 15 games and Bodo/Glimt's last 46.

Result probabilities: KFUM Oslo 15% | Draw 19% | Bodo/Glimt 65%. Fair-value odds: KFUM Oslo 6.52 | Draw 5.18 | Bodo/Glimt 1.53. The model has a clear lean to Bodo/Glimt (65%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 3.22. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.22 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Bodo/Glimt as the most likely outcome at 65% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 3.22 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (KFUM Oslo's last 7 home games and Bodo/Glimt's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: KFUM Oslo 71% (last 7 home games) | Bodo/Glimt 50% (last 10 away games).

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