Sandefjord 4-3 Haugesund – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sandefjord at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sandefjord vs Haugesund fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Haugesund make the trip to Jotun Arena to face Sandefjord in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 16. The match kicks off on Sunday 28 July 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Sandefjord have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: D L L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Sandefjord, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sandefjord's home record at Jotun Arena: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Eliteserien appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Sandefjord are significantly better at Jotun Arena than their overall form suggests.
Haugesund (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Eliteserien outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: W L L D W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Haugesund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Haugesund have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.90 PPG for Sandefjord against 1.10 for Haugesund. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Sandefjord have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Haugesund in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Sandefjord lead 2W to 2W over the last 7 encounters, with 3 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 7 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 26 May 2024, ended 1–2 with Haugesund winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Sandefjord goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Haugesund goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sandefjord 64% versus Haugesund 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sandefjord 64% | Haugesund 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sandefjord 1.57 xG and Haugesund 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sandefjord attack 1.111 / defence 1.060 | Haugesund attack 0.908 / defence 1.007. League average goals — home 1.407 / away 1.385. Data: 45 Sandefjord games / 44 Haugesund games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sandefjord 43% | Draw 26% | Haugesund 32%. Fair-value odds: Sandefjord 2.33 | Draw 3.85 | Haugesund 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sandefjord at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sandefjord if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.91 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sandefjord 70% | Haugesund 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sandefjord vs Haugesund | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Jotun Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Jul 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sandefjord 43% | Draw 26% | Haugesund 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 59% | xG Sandefjord 1.57 / Haugesund 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Sandefjord attack 1.111 / def 1.060 | Haugesund attack 0.908 / def 1.007 | league avg home 1.407 / away 1.385 • Poisson stance: Sandefjord (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Sandefjord xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Haugesund xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sandefjord vs Haugesund kick off?
Sandefjord vs Haugesund kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 28 July 2024 at Jotun Arena.
What was the final score in Sandefjord vs Haugesund?
Sandefjord 4 - 3 Haugesund.
Where is Sandefjord vs Haugesund being played?
The match is being played at Jotun Arena.
What competition is Sandefjord vs Haugesund part of?
Sandefjord vs Haugesund is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Sandefjord vs Haugesund?
Our statistical model gives Sandefjord a 43% chance of winning, Haugesund a 32% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Sandefjord the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sandefjord vs Haugesund?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Sandefjord and Haugesund will score (BTTS).
Will Sandefjord vs Haugesund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sandefjord and Haugesund?
Record (7 meetings): Sandefjord 2W | Draws 3 | Haugesund 2W.
What form are Sandefjord and Haugesund in?
Sandefjord (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-L-D-W. Haugesund (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Sandefjord's attack rating (1.11) and Haugesund's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.57 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Haugesund's attack (0.91x) against Sandefjord's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.33.
These ratings are built from 45/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sandefjord Win
43%
2.35
26%
3.91
32%
3.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Sandefjord xG
Total xG
2.91
1.33
Haugesund xG
2.35
43%
Home win
3.91
26%
Draw
3.14
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.43
Clean Sheet
26%
3.79
21%
4.83
Win to Nil
11%
8.91
7%
15.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 7.3 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 11.5 | 7.6 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 9.0 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.7 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sandefjord vs Haugesund?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Sandefjord and Haugesund expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Sandefjord and 1.33 for Haugesund, a combined total of 2.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Sandefjord vs Haugesund?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Sandefjord come into this having played 44 games, going 11W 11D 22L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-D-W. The sample for Sandefjord is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Haugesund sit at 1.14 PPG from 44 outings (14W 8D 22L), a run that reads W-L-L-D-W across their last five. The sample for Haugesund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for Sandefjord against 1.14 for Haugesund. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Sandefjord's home form reads 9W 4D 8L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.48 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.00 PPG overall — Sandefjord are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Haugesund have taken 0.86 points per game from 21 outings (4W 6D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sandefjord come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Sandefjord are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 1.77 conceded per game recently; Haugesund are on 1.07 scored and 1.32 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sandefjord have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 44 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sandefjord
Blended
Haugesund
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sandefjord and Haugesund in coming into this match?
Sandefjord have gone 11W 11D 22L in their last 44 games (1.00 PPG), while Haugesund have gone 14W 8D 22L in their last 44 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sandefjord at home or Haugesund away?
Sandefjord's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sandefjord at home: 1.48 PPG; Haugesund away: 0.86 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 29 September 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Sandefjord have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sandefjord won 4-0 on 22 Jun 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sandefjord have gone 2W 3D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Haugesund — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Sandefjord
3
Draws
2
Haugesund
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sandefjord and Haugesund?
From 10 meetings on record, Sandefjord have won 5, Haugesund have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sandefjord and Haugesund last play each other?
They last met on 29 September 2025, when Haugesund 2-3 Sandefjord.
Who has won more matches between Sandefjord and Haugesund?
Sandefjord have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sandefjord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Haugesund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sandefjord 62%, Haugesund 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Sandefjord) and 48% (Haugesund). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 5% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Haugesund in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sandefjord home games / Haugesund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sandefjord play Haugesund?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Sandefjord's recent matches and 48% of Haugesund's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sandefjord vs Haugesund usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Sandefjord's matches and 48% of Haugesund's.
Do Sandefjord and Haugesund tend to score early?
Sandefjord have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Haugesund in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sandefjord edge out Haugesund 4-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sandefjord beat Haugesund 4-3 at Jotun Arena, Regular Season - 16, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sandefjord 1.57 xG and Haugesund 1.33 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 4-3 for 7 actual goals. Sandefjord beat their projection by 2.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Haugesund outscored their 1.33 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sandefjord attack 1.11 / defence 1.06 against Haugesund attack 0.91 / defence 1.01, drawn from 45/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sandefjord 43% | Draw 26% | Haugesund 32%, with Sandefjord to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sandefjord 64%, Haugesund 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sandefjord's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Haugesund's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sandefjord 1.00 PPG, Haugesund 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sandefjord win broke the near-deadlock. Sandefjord (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.76 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Haugesund (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.81 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.