Sampdoria 1-2 Venezia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Venezia at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sampdoria vs Venezia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 3 sees Venezia travel to Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris to take on Sampdoria. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 30 August 2023, 19:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Sampdoria — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 0.60 points per game. Last five: L D L W L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Sampdoria have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Sampdoria at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris this season: 1W 5D 4L from 10 home games — 0.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Venezia stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L L W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Venezia have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Venezia away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Venezia — 1.10 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.70 vs 0.60). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Sampdoria register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Venezia in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Sampdoria have won 1, Venezia 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Mar 2022, ended 2–0 with Sampdoria winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Sampdoria trading profile (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games); they fail to score in 55% of games.
Venezia trading profile (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sampdoria 42% versus Venezia 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sampdoria 42% | Venezia 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sampdoria 0.87 xG and Venezia 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sampdoria attack 0.724 / defence 1.256 | Venezia attack 1.021 / defence 0.991. League average goals — home 1.216 / away 1.096. Sampdoria's attack strength of 0.724 is below the league average — the 0.87 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 2 Sampdoria games / 40 Venezia games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Sampdoria 22% | Draw 30% | Venezia 48%. Fair-value odds: Sampdoria 4.55 | Draw 3.33 | Venezia 2.08. Venezia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Venezia are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Venezia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.28 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. This conflicts with form data: Sampdoria 60% | Venezia 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sampdoria vs Venezia | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris • Kick-off: Wednesday 30 Aug 2023, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sampdoria 22% | Draw 30% | Venezia 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 45% | xG Sampdoria 0.87 / Venezia 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Sampdoria attack 0.724 / def 1.256 | Venezia attack 1.021 / def 0.991 | league avg home 1.216 / away 1.096 • Poisson stance: Venezia (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.87
Sampdoria xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Venezia xG
45%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sampdoria vs Venezia kick off?
Sampdoria vs Venezia kicked off at 19:30 on Wednesday 30 August 2023 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What was the final score in Sampdoria vs Venezia?
Sampdoria 1 - 2 Venezia.
Where is Sampdoria vs Venezia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What competition is Sampdoria vs Venezia part of?
Sampdoria vs Venezia is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sampdoria vs Venezia?
Our statistical model gives Sampdoria a 22% chance of winning, Venezia a 48% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Venezia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sampdoria vs Venezia?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Sampdoria and Venezia will score (BTTS).
Will Sampdoria vs Venezia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sampdoria and Venezia?
Record (2 meetings): Sampdoria 1W | Draws 1 | Venezia 0W.
What form are Sampdoria and Venezia in?
Sampdoria (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-D-L-W-L. Venezia (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Sampdoria's attacking strength (0.72x league average) is weighed against Venezia's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.87. The same calculation in reverse, Venezia's attack versus Sampdoria's defence, projects 1.41 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (2/40 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-1 (12.8%), 0-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Venezia Win
22%
4.58
30%
3.31
48%
2.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 0
10.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.87
Sampdoria xG
Total xG
2.28
1.41
Venezia xG
4.58
22%
Home win
3.31
30%
Draw
2.09
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.20
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
25%
4.08
42%
2.39
Win to Nil
5%
18.69
20%
4.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 14.4 | 10.1 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 12.6 | 8.8 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 5.5 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sampdoria vs Venezia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Sampdoria and Venezia expected to score?
The model projects 0.87 expected goals for Sampdoria and 1.41 for Venezia, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Sampdoria vs Venezia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sampdoria come into this having played 40 games, going 4W 10D 26L for 0.55 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-W-L. It's still early in the season for Sampdoria, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Venezia sit at 1.32 PPG from 40 outings (14W 11D 15L), a run that reads W-L-L-W-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Venezia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Venezia carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.77 PPG clear of Sampdoria — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Sampdoria's home form reads 1W 7D 12L across 20 games on their own ground, a 0.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Venezia have taken 1.15 points per game from 20 outings (6W 5D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Venezia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Sampdoria are averaging 0.65 goals scored and 1.85 conceded per game recently; Venezia are on 1.38 scored and 1.27 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Venezia in 62%.
Last 40 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sampdoria
Early Season
Venezia
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sampdoria and Venezia in coming into this match?
Sampdoria have gone 4W 10D 26L in their last 40 games (0.55 PPG), while Venezia have gone 14W 11D 15L in their last 40 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sampdoria at home or Venezia away?
Venezia's away record (1.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sampdoria at home: 0.50 PPG; Venezia away: 1.15 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Serie A, Serie B all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Sampdoria's record when hosting Venezia specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Sampdoria
2
Draws
3
Venezia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sampdoria and Venezia?
From 6 meetings on record, Sampdoria have won 1, Venezia have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sampdoria and Venezia last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when Sampdoria 0-0 Venezia.
Who has won more matches between Sampdoria and Venezia?
Venezia have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sampdoria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Venezia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sampdoria 40%, Venezia 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 30% (Sampdoria) and 45% (Venezia).
On the defensive side: Sampdoria have failed to score in 60% of games; Venezia in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sampdoria home games / Venezia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sampdoria play Venezia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Sampdoria's recent matches and 60% of Venezia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sampdoria vs Venezia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of Sampdoria's recent games and 45% of Venezia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sampdoria and Venezia tend to score early?
Sampdoria have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Venezia in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Venezia edge out Sampdoria 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Venezia beat Sampdoria 1-2 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris, Regular Season - 3, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sampdoria 0.87 xG and Venezia 1.41 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sampdoria attack 0.72 / defence 1.26 against Venezia attack 1.02 / defence 0.99, drawn from 2/40 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Sampdoria 22% | Draw 30% | Venezia 48%, with Venezia to win its most likely call at 48%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sampdoria 42%, Venezia 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sampdoria's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.
Venezia's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Venezia arrived the stronger side — 1.32 PPG against 0.55. Form held, and they took the win. Venezia (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.