Cremonese 1-1 Sampdoria – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sampdoria at 37%, yet in-form Cremonese provide a compelling counter-argument — this Cremonese vs Sampdoria fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Giovanni Zini plays host to Cremonese versus Sampdoria in Serie B (matchday 4). Kick-off: Sunday 3 September 2023 at 18:30 UK time.
Form
Cremonese (all games): 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W D L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home, Cremonese have gone 4W 2D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Sampdoria have collected 0.50 PPG across their last 10 games: 1W 2D 7L. Last five: D L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly.
On the road, Sampdoria have gone 1W 2D 7L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Cremonese. A 0.70 PPG lead over Sampdoria (1.20 vs 0.50) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 2 H2H matches in our data, the wins are level at 1 apiece, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 2 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 8 Apr 2023, ended Cremonese 3–2 Sampdoria — a Cremonese win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Cremonese goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 41 games, 20 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Sampdoria goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 41 games, 20 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; of the 5 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); they fail to score in 54% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cremonese 51% versus Sampdoria 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cremonese 44% | Sampdoria 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cremonese 0.84 xG and Sampdoria 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cremonese attack 0.608 / defence 1.001 | Sampdoria attack 0.985 / defence 1.121. League average goals — home 1.236 / away 1.023. Cremonese's attack rating of 0.608 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.84. Data: built from Cremonese's last 3 games and Sampdoria's last 3.
Result probabilities: Cremonese 28% | Draw 35% | Sampdoria 37%. Fair-value odds: Cremonese 3.58 | Draw 2.85 | Sampdoria 2.71. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS Yes probability 38% | Total xG 1.85. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.85 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 62% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sampdoria are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Cremonese (1.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sampdoria if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.85 combined xG gives a 72% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 62%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Cremonese 40% (last 10 home games) | Sampdoria 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cremonese vs Sampdoria | Competition: Serie B, matchday 4 | Venue: Stadio Giovanni Zini • Kick-off: Sunday 3 September 2023 at 18:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cremonese 28% | Draw 35% | Sampdoria 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% (Under 72%) | BTTS Yes 38% (No 62%) | xG Cremonese 0.84 / Sampdoria 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Cremonese attack 0.608 / def 1.001 | Sampdoria attack 0.985 / def 1.121 | league avg home 1.236 / away 1.023 • Poisson stance: Sampdoria (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.84
Cremonese xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Sampdoria xG
38%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Cremonese vs Sampdoria FAQs
What time does Cremonese vs Sampdoria kick off?
Cremonese vs Sampdoria kicked off at 18:30 UK time on Sunday 3 September 2023 at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
What was the final score in Cremonese vs Sampdoria?
Cremonese 1 - 1 Sampdoria.
Where is Cremonese vs Sampdoria being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
What competition is Cremonese vs Sampdoria part of?
Cremonese vs Sampdoria is a Serie B fixture (matchday 4) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cremonese vs Sampdoria?
Our statistical model gives Cremonese a 28% chance of winning, Sampdoria a 37% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Sampdoria the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cremonese vs Sampdoria?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Cremonese and Sampdoria will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (62%).
Will Cremonese vs Sampdoria have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (72%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Cremonese's attack rating (0.61) and Sampdoria's defence rating (1.12), the model arrives at 0.84 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Sampdoria's attack (0.98x) against Cremonese's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.01.
These ratings are built from Cremonese's last 3 games and Sampdoria's last 3 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 17.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 0-1 (14.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sampdoria Win
28%
3.58
35%
2.85
37%
2.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.8%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.7%
Draw
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.84
Cremonese xG
Total xG
1.85
1.01
Sampdoria xG
3.58
28%
Home win
2.85
35%
Draw
2.71
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.66
62%
BTTS No
1.60
Clean Sheet
36%
2.74
43%
2.32
Win to Nil
10%
9.80
16%
6.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.7 | 15.8 | 8.0 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.2 | 13.3 | 6.7 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Cremonese vs Sampdoria Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Cremonese vs Sampdoria?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.5%.
How many goals are Cremonese and Sampdoria expected to score?
The model projects 0.84 expected goals for Cremonese and 1.01 for Sampdoria, a combined total of 1.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Cremonese vs Sampdoria?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Cremonese's recent record stands at 6W 13D 22L from 41 games, a 0.76 PPG return, with L-W-D-L-W in the last five.
Sampdoria, meanwhile, have gone 4W 10D 27L across 41 games — 0.54 PPG, with D-L-W-L-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.76 PPG for Cremonese against 0.54 for Sampdoria. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Cremonese have managed 4W 5D 11L from their last 20 home games — 0.85 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sampdoria's away record stands at 3W 3D 14L across their last 20 away games, a 0.60 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Cremonese are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; Sampdoria are on 0.66 scored and 1.85 conceded.
Last 41 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cremonese
Early Season
Sampdoria
Early Season
Cremonese (Home) vs Sampdoria (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Cremonese
Early Season
Sampdoria
Early Season
❓ Cremonese vs Sampdoria Form FAQs
What form are Cremonese and Sampdoria in coming into this match?
Cremonese have gone 6W 13D 22L in their last 41 games (0.76 PPG), while Sampdoria have gone 4W 10D 27L in their last 41 (0.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cremonese at home or Sampdoria away?
Cremonese's home record (0.85 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cremonese at home: 0.85 PPG; Sampdoria away: 0.60 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 6 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to October 2022 — enough to show some patterns. They cover more than one competition — Serie A, Serie B. The most recent in our data was on 1 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cremonese have gone 0W 2D 1L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Sampdoria — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Cremonese
3
Draws
1
Sampdoria
Recent Meetings
❓ Cremonese vs Sampdoria H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Cremonese and Sampdoria?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Cremonese have won 2, Sampdoria have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Cremonese and Sampdoria last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 May 2025: Sampdoria 0-0 Cremonese.
Who has won more matches between Cremonese and Sampdoria?
Cremonese have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Cremonese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Sampdoria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cremonese 35%, Sampdoria 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Cremonese) and 55% (Sampdoria).
On the defensive side: Cremonese keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Cremonese have failed to score in 50% of games; Sampdoria in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cremonese home games / Sampdoria away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Cremonese vs Sampdoria Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Cremonese and Sampdoria matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 35% of Cremonese's recent matches and 45% of Sampdoria's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Cremonese and Sampdoria matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Cremonese's recent games and 55% of Sampdoria's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cremonese and Sampdoria matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 65% of Cremonese's recent matches and 75% of Sampdoria's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cremonese and Sampdoria share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cremonese and Sampdoria finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Giovanni Zini, Regular Season - 4, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cremonese 0.84 xG and Sampdoria 1.01 xG, a combined 1.85. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cremonese attack 0.61 / defence 1.00 against Sampdoria attack 0.98 / defence 1.12, drawn from 3/3 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cremonese 28% | Draw 35% | Sampdoria 37%, with Sampdoria to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cremonese 44%, Sampdoria 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cremonese's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Sampdoria's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cremonese 0.76 PPG, Sampdoria 0.54 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Sampdoria (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.20 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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