Ternana 0-1 Cremonese – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ternana at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ternana vs Cremonese fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Ternana and Cremonese meet at Stadio Libero Liberati in Serie B, Regular Season - 3. This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 30 August 2023 at 19:30 UTC.
Form
Ternana (all games): 1W 1D 8L across 10 Serie B fixtures this term — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Ternana have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Ternana have posted 3W 2D 5L at Stadio Libero Liberati — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — Ternana are significantly better at Stadio Libero Liberati than their overall form suggests.
Cremonese's overall Serie B record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L L W D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Cremonese have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Cremonese have posted 1W 4D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Cremonese are 0.50 PPG clear of Ternana in recent Serie B fixtures (0.90 vs 0.40). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Ternana register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, Cremonese in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Ternana lead 0W to 2W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Feb 2022, ended 1–2 with Cremonese winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Ternana — key trading statistics (40 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Cremonese — key trading statistics (40 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ternana 52% versus Cremonese 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ternana 55% | Cremonese 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ternana 1.37 xG and Cremonese 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ternana attack 0.982 / defence 1.200 | Cremonese attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.216 / away 1.096. Data: 40 Ternana games / 2 Cremonese games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Ternana 41% | Draw 30% | Cremonese 29%. Fair-value odds: Ternana 2.44 | Draw 3.33 | Cremonese 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Ternana as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Cremonese (0.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ternana if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.49 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.1 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Ternana 80% | Cremonese 70% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ternana vs Cremonese | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Stadio Libero Liberati • Kick-off: Wednesday 30 Aug 2023, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ternana 41% | Draw 30% | Cremonese 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 52% | xG Ternana 1.37 / Cremonese 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Ternana attack 0.982 / def 1.200 | Cremonese attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.216 / away 1.096 • Poisson stance: Ternana (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Ternana xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Cremonese xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ternana vs Cremonese kick off?
Ternana vs Cremonese kicked off at 19:30 on Wednesday 30 August 2023 at Stadio Libero Liberati.
What was the final score in Ternana vs Cremonese?
Ternana 0 - 1 Cremonese.
Where is Ternana vs Cremonese being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Libero Liberati.
What competition is Ternana vs Cremonese part of?
Ternana vs Cremonese is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Ternana vs Cremonese?
Our statistical model gives Ternana a 41% chance of winning, Cremonese a 29% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Ternana the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ternana vs Cremonese?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Ternana and Cremonese will score (BTTS).
Will Ternana vs Cremonese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ternana and Cremonese?
Record (2 meetings): Ternana 0W | Draws 0 | Cremonese 2W.
What form are Ternana and Cremonese in?
Ternana (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Cremonese (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Ternana's attack rating (0.98) and Cremonese's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.37 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Cremonese's attack (0.85x) against Ternana's defence (1.20x) — and the away total comes out at 1.12.
The sample (40/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.9%), 1-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ternana Win
41%
2.43
30%
3.35
29%
3.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Ternana xG
Total xG
2.49
1.12
Cremonese xG
2.43
41%
Home win
3.35
30%
Draw
3.45
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
33%
3.06
25%
3.95
Win to Nil
13%
7.43
7%
13.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 9.3 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 12.7 | 7.1 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 8.7 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.0 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ternana vs Cremonese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Ternana and Cremonese expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Ternana and 1.12 for Cremonese, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Ternana vs Cremonese?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Ternana's recent record stands at 11W 10D 19L from 40 games, a 1.08 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Ternana, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Cremonese, meanwhile, have gone 5W 13D 22L across 40 games — 0.70 PPG, with L-L-W-D-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Cremonese, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.08 PPG for Ternana against 0.70 for Cremonese. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Ternana have managed 7W 5D 7L from 19 games — 1.37 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cremonese's away record stands at 1W 8D 10L across 19 trips, a 0.58 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ternana come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Ternana are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Cremonese are on 0.90 scored and 1.75 conceded.
Last 40 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ternana
Early Season
Cremonese
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ternana and Cremonese in coming into this match?
Ternana have gone 11W 10D 19L in their last 40 games (1.08 PPG), while Cremonese have gone 5W 13D 22L in their last 40 (0.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ternana at home or Cremonese away?
Ternana's home record (1.37 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ternana at home: 1.37 PPG; Cremonese away: 0.58 PPG.
Have Ternana or Cremonese been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ternana have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Cremonese in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ternana have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Cremonese — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Ternana
0
Draws
3
Cremonese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ternana and Cremonese?
From 4 meetings on record, Ternana have won 1, Cremonese have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Ternana and Cremonese last play each other?
They last met on 13 April 2024, when Cremonese 1-2 Ternana.
Who has won more matches between Ternana and Cremonese?
Cremonese have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Ternana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Cremonese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ternana 53%, Cremonese 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Ternana) and 53% (Cremonese).
On the defensive side: Ternana keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Cremonese in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ternana home games / Cremonese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ternana play Cremonese?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Ternana's games and 68% of Cremonese's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ternana vs Cremonese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Ternana's recent games and 53% of Cremonese's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ternana and Cremonese tend to score early?
Ternana have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, Cremonese in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Cremonese defy the odds to beat Ternana 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cremonese beat Ternana 0-1 at Stadio Libero Liberati, Regular Season - 3, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ternana 1.37 xG and Cremonese 1.12 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Ternana fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ternana attack 0.98 / defence 1.20 against Cremonese attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 40/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Ternana 41% | Draw 30% | Cremonese 29%, with Ternana to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Cremonese win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ternana 55%, Cremonese 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ternana's trading profile (40 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Cremonese's trading profile (40 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ternana 1.08 PPG, Cremonese 0.70 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cremonese win broke the near-deadlock. Ternana (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.11 scoring average — below par going forward. Cremonese (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.