Reggiana 1-3 Palermo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Palermo at 37% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Reggiana vs Palermo encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Palermo make the trip to MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore to face Reggiana in Serie B (matchday 3). The match kicks off on Tuesday 29 August 2023 at 20:30 UK time.
Form
Reggiana (all games): 0W 1D 1L across their last 2 — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market.
Palermo have collected 1.10 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 5D 3L. Last five: D W L D D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Palermo's form when playing away from home: 1W 5D 4L across their last 10 road games (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Palermo are 0.60 PPG clear of Reggiana over their recent games (1.10 vs 0.50). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Reggiana 1.00 xG and Palermo 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Reggiana attack 0.871 / defence 1.150 | Palermo attack 0.950 / defence 0.955. League average goals — home 1.203 / away 1.035. Data: built from Reggiana's last 2 games and Palermo's last 39. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Reggiana 30% | Draw 33% | Palermo 37%. Fair-value odds: Reggiana 3.31 | Draw 3.05 | Palermo 2.71. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS Yes probability 44% | Total xG 2.13. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.13 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 56% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Palermo at 37% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Palermo if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.13 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 64% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's sample (Reggiana 2 games, Palermo 39) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Reggiana vs Palermo | Competition: Serie B, matchday 3 | Venue: MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore • Kick-off: Tuesday 29 August 2023 at 20:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Reggiana 30% | Draw 33% | Palermo 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% (Under 64%) | BTTS Yes 44% (No 56%) | xG Reggiana 1.00 / Palermo 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Reggiana attack 0.871 / def 1.150 | Palermo attack 0.950 / def 0.955 | league avg home 1.203 / away 1.035 • Poisson stance: Palermo (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
Reggiana xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Palermo xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Reggiana vs Palermo FAQs
What time does Reggiana vs Palermo kick off?
Reggiana vs Palermo kicked off at 20:30 UK time on Tuesday 29 August 2023 at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore.
What was the final score in Reggiana vs Palermo?
Reggiana 1 - 3 Palermo.
Where is Reggiana vs Palermo being played?
The match is being played at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore.
What competition is Reggiana vs Palermo part of?
Reggiana vs Palermo is a Serie B fixture (matchday 3) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Reggiana vs Palermo?
Our statistical model gives Reggiana a 30% chance of winning, Palermo a 37% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Palermo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Reggiana vs Palermo?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Reggiana and Palermo will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (56%).
Will Reggiana vs Palermo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (64%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Reggiana's attack rating (0.87) and Palermo's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 1.00 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Palermo's attack (0.95x) against Reggiana's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.13.
These ratings are built from Reggiana's last 2 games and Palermo's last 39, a sample that still includes some older results.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.6%), 0-1 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Palermo Win
30%
3.31
33%
3.05
37%
2.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
11.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
Reggiana xG
Total xG
2.13
1.13
Palermo xG
3.31
30%
Home win
3.05
33%
Draw
2.71
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.25
56%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
32%
3.10
37%
2.72
Win to Nil
10%
10.24
14%
7.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.9 | 13.4 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 13.4 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 6.7 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Reggiana vs Palermo Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Reggiana vs Palermo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Reggiana and Palermo expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Reggiana and 1.13 for Palermo, a combined total of 2.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Reggiana vs Palermo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 2 outings, Reggiana have picked up 0.50 PPG on a 0W 1D 1L record — L-D across the most recent five.
Palermo's form line: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games, 1.00 PPG, last five D-D.
Put side by side, Palermo are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Reggiana.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Reggiana are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Palermo are on 1.00 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Palermo in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Reggiana
Early Season
Palermo
Early Season
Reggiana (Home) vs Palermo (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Reggiana
Early Season
Palermo
Early Season
No results found for this venue split.
No results found for this venue split.
❓ Reggiana vs Palermo Form FAQs
What form are Reggiana and Palermo in coming into this match?
Reggiana have gone 0W 1D 1L in their last 2 games (0.50 PPG), while Palermo have gone 0W 2D 0L in their last 2 (1.00 PPG).
Have Reggiana or Palermo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Reggiana have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Palermo in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 6 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to August 2023 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent was on 25 April 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Reggiana have gone 1W 1D 1L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Palermo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Reggiana
1
Draws
3
Palermo
Recent Meetings
❓ Reggiana vs Palermo H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Reggiana and Palermo?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Reggiana have won 2, Palermo have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Reggiana and Palermo last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 25 April 2026: Reggiana 1-1 Palermo.
Who has won more matches between Reggiana and Palermo?
Palermo have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Reggiana home games / Palermo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Reggiana vs Palermo Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Reggiana and Palermo matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Reggiana's recent matches and 50% of Palermo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Reggiana and Palermo matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Reggiana's recent games and 50% of Palermo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Reggiana and Palermo matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 100% of Reggiana's recent matches and 50% of Palermo's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Palermo cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Reggiana.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Palermo beat Reggiana 1-3 at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore, Regular Season - 3, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Reggiana 1.00 xG and Palermo 1.13 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Palermo outscored their 1.13 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Reggiana attack 0.87 / defence 1.15 against Palermo attack 0.95 / defence 0.95, drawn from 2/39 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Reggiana 30% | Draw 33% | Palermo 37%, with Palermo to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Reggiana 50%, Palermo 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Palermo arrived the stronger side — 1.00 PPG against 0.50. Form held, and they took the win. Reggiana shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Palermo scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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