Fiorentina 2-2 Udinese – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Fiorentina at 57% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Fiorentina vs Udinese encounter.

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Full Analysis

Stadio Artemio Franchi plays host to Fiorentina versus Udinese in Serie A (matchday 20). Kick-off: Sunday 14 January 2024 at 17:00 UK time.

Form & Momentum

Fiorentina have collected 1.60 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: D W W W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.

At home, Fiorentina have gone 7W 1D 2L in their last 10 home games (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Fiorentina are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Udinese (all games): 2W 5D 3L across their last 10 — 1.10 points per game. Last five: L D D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

On the road, Udinese have gone 1W 5D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

The points-per-game gap of 0.50 in Fiorentina's favour (1.60 vs 1.10) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.

H2H Analysis

Neither side has dominated the 5 H2H matches in our data: 3 wins for Fiorentina, 2 for Udinese and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.

The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 24 Sep 2023, ended Fiorentina 2–0 Udinese — a Fiorentina win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading Data

Fiorentina goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 57 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).

Udinese goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 57 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 54% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 54%; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 41%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fiorentina 49% versus Udinese 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fiorentina 42% | Udinese 49%). Note also that Udinese surrender HT leads in 54% of cases while Fiorentina recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 35% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Fiorentina 1.63 xG and Udinese 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fiorentina attack 1.073 / defence 0.866 | Udinese attack 0.830 / defence 1.120. League average goals — home 1.359 / away 1.071. Data: built from Fiorentina's last 57 games and Udinese's last 57.

Result probabilities: Fiorentina 57% | Draw 26% | Udinese 17%. Fair-value odds: Fiorentina 1.75 | Draw 3.81 | Udinese 6.01. The model has a clear lean to Fiorentina (57%) — a 31pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS Yes probability 44% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 56% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Fiorentina at 57% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 2.40 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 57% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Fiorentina 40% (last 10 home games) | Udinese 60% (last 10 away games).

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