Hellas Verona 2-1 Empoli – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hellas Verona at 38% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Hellas Verona face Empoli.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Hellas Verona host Empoli at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi in Serie A (matchday 20). Kick-off is Saturday 13 January 2024 at 17:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Hellas Verona stand at 1W 3D 6L — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D L W L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Hellas Verona at home: 2W 4D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Empoli have recorded 1W 3D 6L — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Empoli's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across their last 10 road games (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Hellas Verona 0.60 PPG, Empoli 0.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 5 H2H matches, Hellas Verona have won 2, Empoli 0, with 3 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 19 Aug 2023, ended Hellas Verona 1–0 Empoli — a Hellas Verona win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Hellas Verona in-play tendencies (last 57 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; of the 23 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Empoli in-play tendencies (last 57 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hellas Verona 53% versus Empoli 40%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Hellas Verona 40% | Empoli 35%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hellas Verona 1.11 xG and Empoli 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hellas Verona attack 0.828 / defence 1.180 | Empoli attack 0.763 / defence 0.997. League average goals — home 1.347 / away 1.050. Empoli's attack rating of 0.763 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.94. Data: built from Hellas Verona's last 57 games and Empoli's last 57.
Result probabilities: Hellas Verona 38% | Draw 33% | Empoli 29%. Fair-value odds: Hellas Verona 2.63 | Draw 3.07 | Empoli 3.40. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS Yes probability 42% | Total xG 2.06. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.06 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 58% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Hellas Verona are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hellas Verona offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.06 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 66% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 58%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Hellas Verona 60% (last 10 home games) | Empoli 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hellas Verona vs Empoli | Competition: Serie A, matchday 20 | Venue: Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi • Kick-off: Saturday 13 January 2024 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hellas Verona 38% | Draw 33% | Empoli 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% (Under 66%) | BTTS Yes 42% (No 58%) | xG Hellas Verona 1.11 / Empoli 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Hellas Verona attack 0.828 / def 1.180 | Empoli attack 0.763 / def 0.997 | league avg home 1.347 / away 1.050 • Poisson stance: Hellas Verona (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Hellas Verona xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Empoli xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Hellas Verona vs Empoli FAQs
What time does Hellas Verona vs Empoli kick off?
Hellas Verona vs Empoli kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Saturday 13 January 2024 at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi.
What was the final score in Hellas Verona vs Empoli?
Hellas Verona 2 - 1 Empoli.
Where is Hellas Verona vs Empoli being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi.
What competition is Hellas Verona vs Empoli part of?
Hellas Verona vs Empoli is a Serie A fixture (matchday 20) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Hellas Verona vs Empoli?
Our statistical model gives Hellas Verona a 38% chance of winning, Empoli a 29% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Hellas Verona the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hellas Verona vs Empoli?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Hellas Verona and Empoli will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (58%).
Will Hellas Verona vs Empoli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (66%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Hellas Verona's attack rating (0.83) and Empoli's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 1.11 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Empoli's attack versus Hellas Verona's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Hellas Verona's last 57 games and Empoli's last 57 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.5%), 1-0 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hellas Verona Win
38%
2.63
33%
3.07
29%
3.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Hellas Verona xG
Total xG
2.06
0.94
Empoli xG
2.63
38%
Home win
3.07
33%
Draw
3.40
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.37
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
39%
2.57
33%
3.04
Win to Nil
15%
6.77
10%
10.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.8 | 12.1 | 5.7 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.2 | 13.4 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 7.5 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Hellas Verona vs Empoli Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Hellas Verona vs Empoli?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Hellas Verona and Empoli expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Hellas Verona and 0.94 for Empoli, a combined total of 2.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Hellas Verona vs Empoli?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Hellas Verona come into this having played 57 games, going 11W 15D 31L for 0.84 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-L-L.
On the other side, Empoli sit at 0.98 PPG from 57 outings (13W 17D 27L), a run that reads D-L-L-D-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hellas Verona on 0.84 PPG, Empoli on 0.98. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Hellas Verona's home form reads 8W 6D 13L across their last 27 home games, a 1.11 PPG return.
Away from home, Empoli have taken 0.85 points per game from their last 27 away games (4W 11D 12L).
Goals in Recent Form
Hellas Verona are averaging 0.84 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Empoli are on 0.82 scored and 1.44 conceded.
Last 57 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hellas Verona
Blended
Empoli
Blended
Hellas Verona (Home) vs Empoli (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Hellas Verona
Blended
Empoli
Blended
❓ Hellas Verona vs Empoli Form FAQs
What form are Hellas Verona and Empoli in coming into this match?
Hellas Verona have gone 11W 15D 31L in their last 57 games (0.84 PPG), while Empoli have gone 13W 17D 27L in their last 57 (0.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hellas Verona at home or Empoli away?
Hellas Verona's home record (1.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hellas Verona at home: 1.11 PPG; Empoli away: 0.85 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 8 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from November 2021. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent in our data was on 25 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 8 Dec 2024, when Empoli won Hellas Verona 1-4 Empoli.
Hellas Verona's record when hosting Empoli specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Hellas Verona
3
Draws
1
Empoli
Recent Meetings
❓ Hellas Verona vs Empoli H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Hellas Verona and Empoli?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Hellas Verona have won 4, Empoli have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Hellas Verona and Empoli last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 25 May 2025: Empoli 1-2 Hellas Verona.
Who has won more matches between Hellas Verona and Empoli?
Hellas Verona have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Hellas Verona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Empoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hellas Verona 56%, Empoli 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Hellas Verona) and 33% (Empoli).
On the defensive side: Hellas Verona have failed to score in 30% of games; Empoli in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hellas Verona home games / Empoli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Hellas Verona vs Empoli Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Hellas Verona and Empoli matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Hellas Verona's recent matches and 48% of Empoli's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Hellas Verona and Empoli matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Hellas Verona's recent games and 33% of Empoli's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hellas Verona and Empoli matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 74% of Hellas Verona's recent matches and 67% of Empoli's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Hellas Verona edge out Empoli 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hellas Verona beat Empoli 2-1 at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi, Regular Season - 20, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hellas Verona 1.11 xG and Empoli 0.94 xG, a combined 2.06. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Hellas Verona beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hellas Verona attack 0.83 / defence 1.18 against Empoli attack 0.76 / defence 1.00, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hellas Verona 38% | Draw 33% | Empoli 29%, with Hellas Verona to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hellas Verona 40%, Empoli 35%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hellas Verona's trading profile (57 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Empoli's trading profile (57 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hellas Verona 0.84 PPG, Empoli 0.98 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hellas Verona win broke the near-deadlock. Hellas Verona (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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