Cagliari 2-1 Bologna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bologna at 35% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cagliari vs Bologna encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Unipol Domus plays host to Cagliari versus Bologna in Serie A (matchday 20). Kick-off: Sunday 14 January 2024 at 14:00 UK time.
Form
Cagliari (all games): 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L L D D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Cagliari have posted 3W 4D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Bologna have collected 1.80 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: W W W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Bologna's form when playing away from home: 2W 6D 2L across their last 10 road games (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
On a straight form reading, Bologna are the stronger side — 0.60 PPG clear of the hosts (1.80 vs 1.20). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (from Cagliari's last 10 home games and Bologna's last 10 away games) — both teams have scored in 70% of Cagliari's games and 70% of Bologna's. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, Bologna edge it 2 wins to 1, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 2 Sep 2023, ended Cagliari 1–2 Bologna — a Bologna win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Cagliari — key trading statistics (last 57 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 52% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Bologna — key trading statistics (last 57 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 41%; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cagliari 56% versus Bologna 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cagliari 46% | Bologna 47%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Cagliari surrender their half-time lead 50% of the time, while Bologna have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 41% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle. Note also that Bologna surrender HT leads in 33% of cases while Cagliari recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 38% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cagliari 1.20 xG and Bologna 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cagliari attack 0.854 / defence 1.232 | Bologna attack 0.908 / defence 1.039. League average goals — home 1.353 / away 1.072. Cagliari's defence rating of 1.232 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Bologna's projected output up. Data: built from Cagliari's last 19 games and Bologna's last 57.
Result probabilities: Cagliari 35% | Draw 30% | Bologna 35%. Fair-value odds: Cagliari 2.84 | Draw 3.38 | Bologna 2.84. The model can't separate the sides — both are rated at 35% to win, with the draw at 30%. There is no result lean here.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model can't separate the sides — Cagliari 35% and Bologna 35%, with the draw at 30%. There is no result lean from the model; the goals and BTTS markets below are where it has a view.
The Poisson model projects 2.40 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 57% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Cagliari 70% (last 10 home games) | Bologna 70% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cagliari vs Bologna | Competition: Serie A, matchday 20 | Venue: Unipol Domus • Kick-off: Sunday 14 January 2024 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cagliari 35% | Draw 30% | Bologna 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% (Under 57%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Cagliari 1.20 / Bologna 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Cagliari attack 0.854 / def 1.232 | Bologna attack 0.908 / def 1.039 | league avg home 1.353 / away 1.072 • Poisson stance: no clear lean — Cagliari and Bologna level at 35% — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Cagliari xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Bologna xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Cagliari vs Bologna FAQs
What time does Cagliari vs Bologna kick off?
Cagliari vs Bologna kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Sunday 14 January 2024 at Unipol Domus.
What was the final score in Cagliari vs Bologna?
Cagliari 2 - 1 Bologna.
Where is Cagliari vs Bologna being played?
The match is being played at Unipol Domus.
What competition is Cagliari vs Bologna part of?
Cagliari vs Bologna is a Serie A fixture (matchday 20) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cagliari vs Bologna?
Our statistical model gives Cagliari a 35% chance of winning, Bologna a 35% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Cagliari vs Bologna?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Cagliari and Bologna will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Cagliari vs Bologna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (57%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Cagliari's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Bologna's defensive record (1.04x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.20. Flip it around — Bologna's attack (0.91x) against Cagliari's defence (1.23x) — and the away total comes out at 1.20.
These ratings are built from Cagliari's last 19 games and Bologna's last 57 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.8%), 0-1 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bologna Win
35%
2.84
30%
3.38
35%
2.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Cagliari xG
Total xG
2.40
1.20
Bologna xG
2.84
35%
Home win
3.38
30%
Draw
2.84
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
30%
3.32
30%
3.32
Win to Nil
11%
9.45
11%
9.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 10.9 | 6.5 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 13.1 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 7.8 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.1 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Cagliari vs Bologna Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Cagliari vs Bologna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Cagliari and Bologna expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Cagliari and 1.20 for Bologna, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Cagliari vs Bologna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 57 outings, Cagliari have picked up 1.33 PPG on a 18W 22D 17L record — W-L-L-D-D across the most recent five.
Bologna's form line: 22W 20D 15L from 57 games, 1.51 PPG, last five W-W-W-L-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.33 PPG for Cagliari against 1.51 for Bologna. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Cagliari have posted 1.86 PPG from their last 28 home games (14W 10D 4L). That's noticeably better than their 1.33 PPG overall — Cagliari are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Bologna have gone 8W 9D 11L from their last 28 away games — 1.18 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cagliari come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Cagliari are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Bologna are on 1.32 scored and 1.14 conceded.
Last 57 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cagliari
Blended
Bologna
Blended
Cagliari (Home) vs Bologna (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Cagliari
Blended
Bologna
Blended
❓ Cagliari vs Bologna Form FAQs
What form are Cagliari and Bologna in coming into this match?
Cagliari have gone 18W 22D 17L in their last 57 games (1.33 PPG), while Bologna have gone 22W 20D 15L in their last 57 (1.51 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cagliari at home or Bologna away?
Cagliari's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cagliari at home: 1.86 PPG; Bologna away: 1.18 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 9 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to November 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was as recently as 24 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cagliari have gone 2W 0D 3L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Bologna — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Cagliari
1
Draws
6
Bologna
Recent Meetings
❓ Cagliari vs Bologna H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Cagliari and Bologna?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Cagliari have won 2, Bologna have won 6, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Cagliari and Bologna last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 24 October 2026: Cagliari 0-2 Bologna.
Who has won more matches between Cagliari and Bologna?
Bologna have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Cagliari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 62% of those situations.
Bologna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 71% for Cagliari, 71% for Bologna — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Cagliari) and 64% (Bologna). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cagliari home games / Bologna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Cagliari vs Bologna Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Cagliari and Bologna matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Cagliari's games and 71% of Bologna's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Cagliari and Bologna matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Cagliari's matches and 64% of Bologna's.
Do Cagliari and Bologna matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of Cagliari's recent matches and 82% of Bologna's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Cagliari defy the odds to beat Bologna 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cagliari beat Bologna 2-1 at Unipol Domus, Regular Season - 20, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cagliari 1.20 xG and Bologna 1.20 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Cagliari beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cagliari attack 0.85 / defence 1.23 against Bologna attack 0.91 / defence 1.04, drawn from 19/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cagliari 35% | Draw 30% | Bologna 35%, with Cagliari to win its most likely call at 35%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cagliari 46%, Bologna 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cagliari's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Bologna's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cagliari 1.33 PPG, Bologna 1.51 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cagliari win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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