Udinese 1-2 Lazio – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Udinese at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Udinese vs Lazio fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 19 as Udinese welcome Lazio to Bluenergy Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 7 January 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Udinese — All Games: 2W 6D 2L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: D L D D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Udinese, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Udinese have posted 1W 6D 3L at Bluenergy Stadium — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Across all Serie A games this season, Lazio have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Lazio, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Lazio have posted 4W 1D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Lazio — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.70 vs 1.20). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Udinese have won 0, Lazio 1, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 May 2023, ended 0–1 with Lazio winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Udinese trading profile (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Lazio trading profile (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Udinese 54% versus Lazio 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Udinese 48% | Lazio 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Udinese 1.43 xG and Lazio 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Udinese attack 1.121 / defence 1.202 | Lazio attack 1.004 / defence 0.946. League average goals — home 1.350 / away 1.057. Data: 56 Udinese games / 56 Lazio games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Udinese 40% | Draw 27% | Lazio 33%. Fair-value odds: Udinese 2.50 | Draw 3.70 | Lazio 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Udinese at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Lazio (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Udinese offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.71 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Udinese 50% | Lazio 50%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Udinese vs Lazio | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Bluenergy Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Jan 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Udinese 40% | Draw 27% | Lazio 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 56% | xG Udinese 1.43 / Lazio 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Udinese attack 1.121 / def 1.202 | Lazio attack 1.004 / def 0.946 | league avg home 1.350 / away 1.057 • Poisson stance: Udinese (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Udinese xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Lazio xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Udinese vs Lazio kick off?
Udinese vs Lazio kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 7 January 2024 at Bluenergy Stadium.
What was the final score in Udinese vs Lazio?
Udinese 1 - 2 Lazio.
Where is Udinese vs Lazio being played?
The match is being played at Bluenergy Stadium.
What competition is Udinese vs Lazio part of?
Udinese vs Lazio is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Udinese vs Lazio?
Our statistical model gives Udinese a 40% chance of winning, Lazio a 33% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Udinese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Udinese vs Lazio?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Udinese and Lazio will score (BTTS).
Will Udinese vs Lazio have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Udinese and Lazio?
Record (4 meetings): Udinese 0W | Draws 3 | Lazio 1W.
What form are Udinese and Lazio in?
Udinese (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-D-D-W. Lazio (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Udinese's attack rating (1.12) and Lazio's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 1.43 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Lazio's attack versus Udinese's defence, projects 1.27 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 0-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Udinese Win
40%
2.49
27%
3.70
33%
3.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Udinese xG
Total xG
2.71
1.27
Lazio xG
2.49
40%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
3.04
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
28%
3.58
24%
4.19
Win to Nil
11%
8.93
8%
12.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 8.5 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.2 | 7.8 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 8.7 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.2 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Udinese vs Lazio?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Udinese and Lazio expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Udinese and 1.27 for Lazio, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Udinese vs Lazio?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Udinese's recent record stands at 13W 24D 19L from 56 games, a 1.12 PPG return, with D-L-D-D-W in the last five. The sample for Udinese is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lazio, meanwhile, have gone 30W 11D 15L across 56 games — 1.80 PPG, with W-D-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for Lazio is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Lazio by 0.68 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Udinese heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Udinese have managed 7W 15D 6L from 28 games — 1.29 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Lazio's away record stands at 14W 5D 9L across 28 trips, a 1.68 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Udinese are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Lazio are on 1.45 scored and 0.88 conceded.
Defensively: Lazio in 48% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 56 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Udinese
Blended
Lazio
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Udinese and Lazio in coming into this match?
Udinese have gone 13W 24D 19L in their last 56 games (1.12 PPG), while Lazio have gone 30W 11D 15L in their last 56 (1.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Udinese at home or Lazio away?
Lazio's away record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Udinese at home: 1.29 PPG; Lazio away: 1.68 PPG.
Have Udinese or Lazio been keeping clean sheets recently?
Udinese have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Lazio in 48%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Udinese and Lazio runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 27 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Udinese's record when hosting Lazio specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Udinese
6
Draws
2
Lazio
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Udinese and Lazio?
From 10 meetings on record, Udinese have won 2, Lazio have won 2, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Udinese and Lazio last play each other?
They last met on 27 April 2026, when Lazio 3-3 Udinese.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Udinese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Lazio are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Udinese 61%, Lazio 32% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Udinese) and 36% (Lazio).
On the defensive side: Lazio in 54%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Udinese home games / Lazio away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Udinese play Lazio?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 61% of Udinese's recent matches and 32% of Lazio's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Udinese vs Lazio usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Udinese's recent games and 36% of Lazio's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Udinese and Lazio tend to score early?
Udinese have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Lazio in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Lazio defy the odds to beat Udinese 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lazio beat Udinese 1-2 at Bluenergy Stadium, Regular Season - 19, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Udinese 1.43 xG and Lazio 1.27 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Udinese attack 1.12 / defence 1.20 against Lazio attack 1.00 / defence 0.95, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Udinese 40% | Draw 27% | Lazio 33%, with Udinese to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Lazio win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Udinese 48%, Lazio 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Udinese's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Lazio's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Lazio arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 1.12. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.