Wolves 2-1 Fulham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Wolves at 48% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Wolves vs Fulham encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Fulham travel to Molineux Stadium to take on Wolves in Premier League (matchday 28). The game is scheduled for Saturday 9 March 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Wolves have gone 6W 1D 3L — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: W L W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
In front of their own supporters, Wolves have posted 5W 3D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Fulham stand at 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Fulham's away record over their last 10 away games: 1W 3D 6L (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Wolves are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 0.50 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 1.40). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 0 wins for Wolves, 1 for Fulham and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 27 Nov 2023, ended Wolves 2–3 Fulham — a Fulham win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Wolves trading profile (last 65 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 32%; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Fulham trading profile (last 65 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wolves 49% versus Fulham 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wolves 51% | Fulham 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wolves 1.71 xG and Fulham 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wolves attack 0.906 / defence 0.976 | Fulham attack 0.830 / defence 1.098. League average goals — home 1.716 / away 1.553. Data: built from Wolves's last 65 games and Fulham's last 65.
Result probabilities: Wolves 48% | Draw 25% | Fulham 28%. Fair-value odds: Wolves 2.10 | Draw 4.07 | Fulham 3.59. Wolves hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS Yes probability 59% | Total xG 2.97. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.97 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 59% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Wolves as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Wolves offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.97 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Wolves's last 10 home games and Fulham's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Wolves 60% (last 10 home games) | Fulham 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wolves vs Fulham | Competition: Premier League, matchday 28 | Venue: Molineux Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 9 March 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wolves 48% | Draw 25% | Fulham 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% (Under 43%) | BTTS Yes 59% (No 41%) | xG Wolves 1.71 / Fulham 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Wolves attack 0.906 / def 0.976 | Fulham attack 0.830 / def 1.098 | league avg home 1.716 / away 1.553 • Poisson stance: Wolves (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.71
Wolves xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Fulham xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Wolves vs Fulham FAQs
What time does Wolves vs Fulham kick off?
Wolves vs Fulham kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 9 March 2024 at Molineux Stadium.
What was the final score in Wolves vs Fulham?
Wolves 2 - 1 Fulham.
Where is Wolves vs Fulham being played?
The match is being played at Molineux Stadium.
What competition is Wolves vs Fulham part of?
Wolves vs Fulham is a Premier League fixture (matchday 28) (England).
Who is favourite to win Wolves vs Fulham?
Our statistical model gives Wolves a 48% chance of winning, Fulham a 28% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Wolves the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wolves vs Fulham?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Wolves and Fulham will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Wolves vs Fulham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Wolves's attack rating (0.91) and Fulham's defence rating (1.10), the model arrives at 1.71 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Fulham's attack versus Wolves's defence, projects 1.26 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Wolves's last 65 games and Fulham's last 65 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Wolves Win
48%
2.10
25%
4.07
28%
3.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.71
Wolves xG
Total xG
2.97
1.26
Fulham xG
2.10
48%
Home win
4.07
25%
Draw
3.59
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.44
Clean Sheet
28%
3.52
18%
5.51
Win to Nil
13%
7.41
5%
19.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 6.5 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 11.1 | 7.0 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.4 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 5.4 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Wolves vs Fulham Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Wolves vs Fulham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Wolves and Fulham expected to score?
The model projects 1.71 expected goals for Wolves and 1.26 for Fulham, a combined total of 2.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Wolves vs Fulham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Wolves come into this having played 65 games, going 22W 13D 30L for 1.22 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-W-L.
On the other side, Fulham sit at 1.34 PPG from 65 outings (25W 12D 28L), a run that reads D-W-L-W-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Wolves on 1.22 PPG, Fulham on 1.34. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Wolves's home form reads 15W 6D 11L across their last 32 home games, a 1.59 PPG return.
Away from home, Fulham have taken 1.03 points per game from their last 32 away games (9W 6D 17L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Wolves come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Wolves are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Fulham are on 1.45 scored and 1.46 conceded.
Last 65 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wolves
Blended
Fulham
Blended
Wolves (Home) vs Fulham (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Wolves
Blended
Fulham
Blended
❓ Wolves vs Fulham Form FAQs
What form are Wolves and Fulham in coming into this match?
Wolves have gone 22W 13D 30L in their last 65 games (1.22 PPG), while Fulham have gone 25W 12D 28L in their last 65 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wolves at home or Fulham away?
Wolves's home record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wolves at home: 1.59 PPG; Fulham away: 1.03 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 8 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2022. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was on 17 May 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 23 Nov 2024, when Wolves won Fulham 1-4 Wolves.
Wolves's record when hosting Fulham specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Wolves
3
Draws
3
Fulham
Recent Meetings
❓ Wolves vs Fulham H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Wolves and Fulham?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Wolves have won 2, Fulham have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Wolves and Fulham last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 17 May 2026: Wolves 1-1 Fulham.
Who has won more matches between Wolves and Fulham?
Fulham have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Wolves are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Fulham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wolves 41%, Fulham 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Wolves) and 59% (Fulham).
On the defensive side: Wolves keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Fulham in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wolves home games / Fulham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Wolves vs Fulham Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Wolves and Fulham matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Wolves's recent matches and 53% of Fulham's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Wolves and Fulham matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Wolves's recent games and 59% of Fulham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Wolves and Fulham matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 72% of Wolves's recent matches and 69% of Fulham's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Wolves edge out Fulham 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wolves beat Fulham 2-1 at Molineux Stadium, Regular Season - 28, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wolves 1.71 xG and Fulham 1.26 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wolves attack 0.91 / defence 0.98 against Fulham attack 0.83 / defence 1.10, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wolves 48% | Draw 25% | Fulham 28%, with Wolves to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wolves 51%, Fulham 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wolves's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Fulham's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Wolves 1.22 PPG, Fulham 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Wolves win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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