Fulham 3-0 Brighton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fulham at 52% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Fulham face Brighton.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Fulham host Brighton at Craven Cottage in Premier League (matchday 27). Kick-off is Saturday 2 March 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Fulham — last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: D D W L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Fulham at home: 6W 1D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Fulham are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Brighton stand at 3W 4D 3L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W L W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
When travelling, Brighton have posted 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Fulham) versus 1.30 (Brighton). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Fulham have won 2, Brighton 0, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 29 Oct 2023, ended Fulham 1–1 Brighton — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Fulham in-play tendencies (last 64 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games).
Brighton in-play tendencies (last 64 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 84% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Fulham 55% and Brighton 69% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fulham 64% | Brighton 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fulham 1.90 xG and Brighton 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fulham attack 1.062 / defence 0.831 | Brighton attack 0.982 / defence 1.050. League average goals — home 1.705 / away 1.557. Data: built from Fulham's last 64 games and Brighton's last 64.
Result probabilities: Fulham 52% | Draw 23% | Brighton 25%. Fair-value odds: Fulham 1.94 | Draw 4.26 | Brighton 4.01. Fulham hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS Yes probability 62% | Total xG 3.17. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.17 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% — both xG figures (1.90 / 1.27) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Fulham are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fulham offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.17 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Fulham's last 10 home games and Brighton's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Fulham 50% (last 10 home games) | Brighton 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fulham vs Brighton | Competition: Premier League, matchday 27 | Venue: Craven Cottage • Kick-off: Saturday 2 March 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fulham 52% | Draw 23% | Brighton 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% (Under 39%) | BTTS Yes 62% (No 38%) | xG Fulham 1.90 / Brighton 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Fulham attack 1.062 / def 0.831 | Brighton attack 0.982 / def 1.050 | league avg home 1.705 / away 1.557 • Poisson stance: Fulham (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.90
Fulham xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Brighton xG
62%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Fulham vs Brighton FAQs
What time does Fulham vs Brighton kick off?
Fulham vs Brighton kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 2 March 2024 at Craven Cottage.
What was the final score in Fulham vs Brighton?
Fulham 3 - 0 Brighton.
Where is Fulham vs Brighton being played?
The match is being played at Craven Cottage.
What competition is Fulham vs Brighton part of?
Fulham vs Brighton is a Premier League fixture (matchday 27) (England).
Who is favourite to win Fulham vs Brighton?
Our statistical model gives Fulham a 52% chance of winning, Brighton a 25% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Fulham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fulham vs Brighton?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Fulham and Brighton will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Fulham vs Brighton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Fulham's attack at 1.06x the league average against Brighton's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 1.90 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Brighton's attack versus Fulham's defence, projects 1.27 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Fulham's last 64 games and Brighton's last 64 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Fulham Win
52%
1.94
23%
4.26
25%
4.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.90
Fulham xG
Total xG
3.17
1.27
Brighton xG
1.94
52%
Home win
4.26
23%
Draw
4.01
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.61
Clean Sheet
28%
3.56
15%
6.71
Win to Nil
14%
6.90
4%
26.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 5.3 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 10.1 | 6.4 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.6 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 6.1 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.9 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Fulham vs Brighton Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Fulham vs Brighton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Fulham and Brighton expected to score?
The model projects 1.90 expected goals for Fulham and 1.27 for Brighton, a combined total of 3.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Fulham vs Brighton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Fulham's recent record stands at 24W 12D 28L from 64 games, a 1.31 PPG return, with D-D-W-L-W in the last five.
Brighton, meanwhile, have gone 28W 17D 19L across 64 games — 1.58 PPG, with L-W-L-W-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Fulham on 1.31 PPG, Brighton on 1.58. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Fulham have managed 15W 6D 11L from their last 32 home games — 1.59 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Brighton's away record stands at 12W 7D 13L across their last 32 away games, a 1.34 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Fulham are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Brighton are on 1.89 scored and 1.47 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Brighton in 69%.
Last 64 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fulham
Blended
Brighton
Blended
Fulham (Home) vs Brighton (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Fulham
Blended
Brighton
Blended
❓ Fulham vs Brighton Form FAQs
What form are Fulham and Brighton in coming into this match?
Fulham have gone 24W 12D 28L in their last 64 games (1.31 PPG), while Brighton have gone 28W 17D 19L in their last 64 (1.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fulham at home or Brighton away?
Fulham's home record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fulham at home: 1.59 PPG; Brighton away: 1.34 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 8 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from August 2022. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was on 24 January 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 2 Mar 2024, when Fulham won Fulham 3-0 Brighton.
Fulham's record when hosting Brighton specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Fulham
2
Draws
1
Brighton
Recent Meetings
❓ Fulham vs Brighton H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Fulham and Brighton?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Fulham have won 5, Brighton have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Fulham and Brighton last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 24 January 2026: Fulham 2-1 Brighton.
Who has won more matches between Fulham and Brighton?
Fulham have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Fulham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Brighton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Fulham at 56%, Brighton at 75%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 69% for Fulham and 75% for Brighton. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 34% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Fulham have failed to score in 28% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fulham home games / Brighton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Fulham vs Brighton Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Fulham and Brighton matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Fulham's games and 75% of Brighton's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Fulham and Brighton matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Fulham's matches and 75% of Brighton's.
Do Fulham and Brighton matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of Fulham's recent matches and 84% of Brighton's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Fulham run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Brighton.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fulham beat Brighton 3-0 at Craven Cottage, Regular Season - 27, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fulham 1.90 xG and Brighton 1.27 xG, a combined 3.17. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Fulham beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Brighton landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fulham attack 1.06 / defence 0.83 against Brighton attack 0.98 / defence 1.05, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fulham 52% | Draw 23% | Brighton 25%, with Fulham to win its most likely call at 52%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fulham 64%, Brighton 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fulham's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Brighton's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fulham 1.31 PPG, Brighton 1.58 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fulham win broke the near-deadlock. Fulham (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.69 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line. Brighton (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.78 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.78 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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