Aston Villa 0-4 Tottenham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Aston Villa at 47% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Aston Villa face Tottenham.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Aston Villa welcome Tottenham to Villa Park in Premier League (matchday 28). Kick-off is Sunday 10 March 2024 at 13:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Aston Villa have gone 5W 2D 3L — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: W L W W W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home, Aston Villa have gone 7W 1D 2L in their last 10 home games (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Aston Villa are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Tottenham stand at 6W 2D 2L — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W D W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
When travelling, Tottenham have posted 4W 4D 2L from their last 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Aston Villa at 1.70 PPG versus Tottenham's 2.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Both teams have scored in at least 80% of each side's games (from Aston Villa's last 10 home games and Tottenham's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 4 H2H matches we hold have produced 3 wins for Aston Villa, 1 for Tottenham and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 4 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 26 Nov 2023, ended Aston Villa 2–1 Tottenham — a Aston Villa win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Aston Villa in-play and half-time data (last 64 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Tottenham in-play and half-time data (last 64 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 79% of those occasions; of the 23 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Aston Villa 59% and Tottenham 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Aston Villa 59% | Tottenham 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Aston Villa 2.23 xG and Tottenham 1.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Aston Villa attack 1.183 / defence 0.978 | Tottenham attack 1.222 / defence 1.103. League average goals — home 1.709 / away 1.555. Tottenham have an above-average attack rating of 1.222, which lifts their away xG to 1.86. Data: built from Aston Villa's last 65 games and Tottenham's last 64.
Result probabilities: Aston Villa 47% | Draw 21% | Tottenham 33%. Fair-value odds: Aston Villa 2.14 | Draw 4.80 | Tottenham 3.08. Aston Villa hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 77% | BTTS Yes probability 76% | Total xG 4.09. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 77% — a total xG of 4.09 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 76% — both xG figures (2.23 / 1.86) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Aston Villa at 47% — moderate model lean. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 4.09 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 77% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Aston Villa's last 10 home games and Tottenham's last 10 away games) averaging 3.8 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 76%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Aston Villa 80% (last 10 home games) | Tottenham 80% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Aston Villa vs Tottenham | Competition: Premier League, matchday 28 | Venue: Villa Park • Kick-off: Sunday 10 March 2024 at 13:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Aston Villa 47% | Draw 21% | Tottenham 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 77% (Under 23%) | BTTS Yes 76% (No 24%) | xG Aston Villa 2.23 / Tottenham 1.86 • Poisson strength factors: Aston Villa attack 1.183 / def 0.978 | Tottenham attack 1.222 / def 1.103 | league avg home 1.709 / away 1.555 • Poisson stance: Aston Villa (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.23
Aston Villa xG
Expected Goals
1.86
Tottenham xG
76%
BTTS
92%
Over 1.5
77%
Over 2.5
58%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Aston Villa vs Tottenham FAQs
What time does Aston Villa vs Tottenham kick off?
Aston Villa vs Tottenham kicked off at 13:00 UK time on Sunday 10 March 2024 at Villa Park.
What was the final score in Aston Villa vs Tottenham?
Aston Villa 0 - 4 Tottenham.
Where is Aston Villa vs Tottenham being played?
The match is being played at Villa Park.
What competition is Aston Villa vs Tottenham part of?
Aston Villa vs Tottenham is a Premier League fixture (matchday 28) (England).
Who is favourite to win Aston Villa vs Tottenham?
Our statistical model gives Aston Villa a 47% chance of winning, Tottenham a 33% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Aston Villa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Aston Villa vs Tottenham?
Our model estimates a 76% probability that both Aston Villa and Tottenham will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Aston Villa vs Tottenham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 77%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Aston Villa's attack rating (1.18) and Tottenham's defence rating (1.10), the model arrives at 2.23 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Tottenham's attack versus Aston Villa's defence, projects 1.86 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Aston Villa's last 65 games and Tottenham's last 64 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 7.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (7.7%), 2-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 23% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Aston Villa Win
47%
2.14
21%
4.80
33%
3.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
7.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 2
7.2%
Draw
1 – 1
6.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.23
Aston Villa xG
Total xG
4.09
1.86
Tottenham xG
2.14
47%
Home win
4.80
21%
Draw
3.08
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
77%
Over 2.5
1.30
23%
Under 2.5
4.35
58%
Over 3.5
1.72
42%
Under 3.5
2.38
39%
Over 4.5
2.56
61%
Under 4.5
1.64
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
76%
BTTS Yes
1.32
24%
BTTS No
4.11
Clean Sheet
16%
6.41
11%
9.30
Win to Nil
7%
13.75
3%
28.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.7 | 3.1 | 2.9 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 3.7 | 6.9 | 6.5 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 7.7 | 7.2 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 5.8 | 5.4 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 3.2 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Aston Villa vs Tottenham Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Aston Villa vs Tottenham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 7.9%.
How many goals are Aston Villa and Tottenham expected to score?
The model projects 2.23 expected goals for Aston Villa and 1.86 for Tottenham, a combined total of 4.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Aston Villa vs Tottenham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Aston Villa's recent record stands at 35W 11D 18L from 64 games, a 1.81 PPG return, with W-L-W-W-W in the last five.
Tottenham, meanwhile, have gone 33W 11D 20L across 64 games — 1.72 PPG, with W-D-W-L-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Aston Villa on 1.81 PPG, Tottenham on 1.72. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Aston Villa have managed 21W 3D 7L from their last 31 home games — 2.13 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Tottenham's away record stands at 11W 10D 10L across their last 31 away games, a 1.39 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Aston Villa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Aston Villa are averaging 1.72 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Tottenham are on 1.95 scored and 1.59 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Tottenham in 70%.
Last 64 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Aston Villa
Blended
Tottenham
Blended
Aston Villa (Home) vs Tottenham (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Aston Villa
Blended
Tottenham
Blended
❓ Aston Villa vs Tottenham Form FAQs
What form are Aston Villa and Tottenham in coming into this match?
Aston Villa have gone 35W 11D 18L in their last 64 games (1.81 PPG), while Tottenham have gone 33W 11D 20L in their last 64 (1.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Aston Villa at home or Tottenham away?
Aston Villa's home record (2.13 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Aston Villa at home: 2.13 PPG; Tottenham away: 1.39 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to April 2022. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was as recently as 19 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 9 Apr 2022, when Tottenham won Aston Villa 0-4 Tottenham.
Aston Villa's record when hosting Tottenham specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Aston Villa
0
Draws
4
Tottenham
Recent Meetings
❓ Aston Villa vs Tottenham H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Aston Villa and Tottenham?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Aston Villa have won 6, Tottenham have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Aston Villa and Tottenham last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 19 September 2026: Tottenham 2-3 Aston Villa.
Who has won more matches between Aston Villa and Tottenham?
Aston Villa have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Aston Villa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 61% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Tottenham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 42% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Aston Villa at 61%, Tottenham at 71%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for Aston Villa and 68% for Tottenham. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 45% and 58% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Aston Villa keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Aston Villa home games / Tottenham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Aston Villa vs Tottenham Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Aston Villa and Tottenham matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Aston Villa's games and 71% of Tottenham's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Aston Villa and Tottenham matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Aston Villa's matches and 68% of Tottenham's.
Do Aston Villa and Tottenham matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 81% of Aston Villa's recent matches and 81% of Tottenham's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Tottenham run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Aston Villa.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Tottenham beat Aston Villa 0-4 at Villa Park, Regular Season - 28, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Aston Villa 2.23 xG and Tottenham 1.86 xG, a combined 4.09. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Aston Villa fell 2.2 short of their projected output. Tottenham outscored their 1.86 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Aston Villa attack 1.18 / defence 0.98 against Tottenham attack 1.22 / defence 1.10, drawn from 65/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Aston Villa 47% | Draw 21% | Tottenham 33%, with Aston Villa to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual Tottenham win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 77%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 92% and landed. Over 3.5 was 58% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 76% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Aston Villa 59%, Tottenham 69%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Aston Villa's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Tottenham's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Aston Villa 1.81 PPG, Tottenham 1.72 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Tottenham win broke the near-deadlock. Aston Villa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.13 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.13 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Tottenham (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.90 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.87 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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