Fulham 3-0 Tottenham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fulham at 42%, yet in-form Tottenham provide a compelling counter-argument — this Fulham vs Tottenham fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Tottenham travel to Craven Cottage to take on Fulham in Premier League (matchday 29). The game is scheduled for Saturday 16 March 2024 at 17:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Fulham stand at 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L W W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Fulham at home: 6W 1D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Fulham are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, Tottenham have recorded 6W 2D 2L — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
On the road, Tottenham have gone 4W 4D 2L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Tottenham's 2.00 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Fulham's 1.40 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
Tottenham have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 3 of the 3 H2H matches we hold against 0 for Fulham. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 23 Oct 2023, ended Fulham 0–2 Tottenham — a Tottenham win.
Tottenham have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 3 wins from 3 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
In-Play Profile
Fulham in-play tendencies (last 65 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games).
Tottenham in-play tendencies (last 65 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; of the 23 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Fulham 54% and Tottenham 69% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Fulham 65% | Tottenham 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fulham 1.82 xG and Tottenham 1.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fulham attack 1.117 / defence 0.758 | Tottenham attack 1.364 / defence 0.958. League average goals — home 1.699 / away 1.569. Tottenham have an above-average attack rating of 1.364, which lifts their away xG to 1.62. Fulham have a tight defence (rating 0.758), which is pulling Tottenham's projected output down. Data: built from Fulham's last 66 games and Tottenham's last 65.
Result probabilities: Fulham 42% | Draw 23% | Tottenham 34%. Fair-value odds: Fulham 2.36 | Draw 4.27 | Tottenham 2.92. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS Yes probability 68% | Total xG 3.44. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.44 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% — both xG figures (1.82 / 1.62) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Fulham are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Tottenham (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fulham offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.44 combined xG gives a 67% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Fulham's last 10 home games and Tottenham's last 10 away games) averaging 3.4 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 68% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Fulham 40% (last 10 home games) | Tottenham 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fulham vs Tottenham | Competition: Premier League, matchday 29 | Venue: Craven Cottage • Kick-off: Saturday 16 March 2024 at 17:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fulham 42% | Draw 23% | Tottenham 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% (Under 33%) | BTTS Yes 68% (No 32%) | xG Fulham 1.82 / Tottenham 1.62 • Poisson strength factors: Fulham attack 1.117 / def 0.758 | Tottenham attack 1.364 / def 0.958 | league avg home 1.699 / away 1.569 • Poisson stance: Fulham (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.82
Fulham xG
Expected Goals
1.62
Tottenham xG
68%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Fulham vs Tottenham FAQs
What time does Fulham vs Tottenham kick off?
Fulham vs Tottenham kicked off at 17:30 UK time on Saturday 16 March 2024 at Craven Cottage.
What was the final score in Fulham vs Tottenham?
Fulham 3 - 0 Tottenham.
Where is Fulham vs Tottenham being played?
The match is being played at Craven Cottage.
What competition is Fulham vs Tottenham part of?
Fulham vs Tottenham is a Premier League fixture (matchday 29) (England).
Who is favourite to win Fulham vs Tottenham?
Our statistical model gives Fulham a 42% chance of winning, Tottenham a 34% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Fulham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fulham vs Tottenham?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Fulham and Tottenham will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Fulham vs Tottenham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Fulham's attack rating (1.12) and Tottenham's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 1.82 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Tottenham's attack versus Fulham's defence, projects 1.62 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Fulham's last 66 games and Tottenham's last 65 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Fulham Win
42%
2.36
23%
4.27
34%
2.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 2
7.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.82
Fulham xG
Total xG
3.44
1.62
Tottenham xG
2.36
42%
Home win
4.27
23%
Draw
2.92
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.48
32%
BTTS No
3.10
Clean Sheet
20%
5.06
16%
6.16
Win to Nil
8%
11.96
6%
17.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 5.2 | 4.2 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 9.5 | 7.7 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 8.6 | 7.0 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 5.2 | 4.2 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Fulham vs Tottenham Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Fulham vs Tottenham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are Fulham and Tottenham expected to score?
The model projects 1.82 expected goals for Fulham and 1.62 for Tottenham, a combined total of 3.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Fulham vs Tottenham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Fulham's recent record stands at 25W 11D 29L from 65 games, a 1.32 PPG return, with W-L-W-W-L in the last five.
Tottenham, meanwhile, have gone 34W 11D 20L across 65 games — 1.74 PPG, with D-W-L-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Tottenham by 0.42 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Fulham heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Fulham have managed 16W 5D 11L from their last 32 home games — 1.66 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Tottenham's away record stands at 12W 10D 10L across their last 32 away games, a 1.44 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Fulham are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Tottenham are on 1.98 scored and 1.57 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Tottenham in 69%.
Last 65 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fulham
Current Season
Tottenham
Blended
Fulham (Home) vs Tottenham (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Fulham
Current Season
Tottenham
Blended
❓ Fulham vs Tottenham Form FAQs
What form are Fulham and Tottenham in coming into this match?
Fulham have gone 25W 11D 29L in their last 65 games (1.32 PPG), while Tottenham have gone 34W 11D 20L in their last 65 (1.74 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fulham at home or Tottenham away?
Fulham's home record (1.66 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fulham at home: 1.66 PPG; Tottenham away: 1.44 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 8 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from September 2022. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was on 1 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Fulham have won each of the latest 3 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 16 Mar 2024, when Fulham won Fulham 3-0 Tottenham.
Fulham's record when hosting Tottenham specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Fulham
1
Draws
3
Tottenham
Recent Meetings
❓ Fulham vs Tottenham H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Fulham and Tottenham?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Fulham have won 4, Tottenham have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Fulham and Tottenham last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 March 2026: Fulham 2-1 Tottenham.
Who has won more matches between Fulham and Tottenham?
Fulham have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Fulham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Tottenham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 42% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fulham 53%, Tottenham 69% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 69% for Fulham and 69% for Tottenham. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 59% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Fulham have failed to score in 28% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fulham home games / Tottenham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Fulham vs Tottenham Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Fulham and Tottenham matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Fulham's games and 69% of Tottenham's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Fulham and Tottenham matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Fulham's matches and 69% of Tottenham's.
Do Fulham and Tottenham matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of Fulham's recent matches and 78% of Tottenham's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Fulham run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Tottenham.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fulham beat Tottenham 3-0 at Craven Cottage, Regular Season - 29, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fulham 1.82 xG and Tottenham 1.62 xG, a combined 3.44. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Fulham beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Tottenham landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fulham attack 1.12 / defence 0.76 against Tottenham attack 1.36 / defence 0.96, drawn from 66/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fulham 42% | Draw 23% | Tottenham 34%, with Fulham to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fulham 65%, Tottenham 69%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fulham's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Tottenham's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Tottenham arrived the stronger side — 1.74 PPG against 1.32. Form was overturned, with Fulham winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Fulham (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.72 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.31 average — tighter than their form line. Tottenham (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.97 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.81 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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